Football ranking table

Two major shocks this weekend, with bonus point for Down and Roscommon gaining them 9 and 7.8 rating points, respectively.

• Roscommon shoot up to 2nd, where they haven't been since July 2001
• Down move to 6th, a position they haven't occupied since July 2012
• No rating points were exchanged in the other 4 games this weekend

Four semi-finals up for decision this weekend, and the prediction model is giving them all to be relatively close games.

• Little to separate Derry and Monaghan, but Derry's form does look a little better, and they do seem to have held an advantage in most of the recent exchanges
• Louth are on a great run of form, while Dublin's is quite sporadic, but the model is still going with Dublin
• Kildare's form took a major dip in the midddle of the league, but they seem to have found their mojo again. Westmeath though took things to a new level when taking Meath out of the Leinster equation, and also had huge league wins against Fermanagh, Limerick and following that, against Longford in the first round of the championship
• Will Down be able to hold Armagh to 13 points, like they did in 2024? And will their attack spark against an Armagh defence that seems quite open……most of the recent previous meetings between the two sides have been extremely tight

tl;dr

From the weekend of the 9th/10th - Carlow's loss takes them to their lowest ranking since March 2016, while Clare drop to 22nd, where they haven't been since January 2016

A right selection of games on this weekend, and only one of them on the box 😕

• Both Donegal and Kerry have underperformed in 3 of their last 4 games, and over the last 3 years, Kerry have underperformed against Donegal in their 4 league meetings; the exception being last year's All-Ireland, where Kerry overperformed by 10 points. Perhaps Kerry can do it when it matters? Home advantage probably adds to the model's prediction here.
• There is generally little between Cork and Meath, with recent games being pretty open affairs. So tight that the model is going for a draw.
• Both Galway and Kildare are coming off unexpected defeats, but Galway's superior rating should get them over the line
• While Offaly's form has been good this year, and Down's erratic (their result against Armagh falls outside the chart on page 14!), Down have been fighting bigger opposition this year, and should come through
• London have overperformed by between 6 and 16 points in their last 5 games, so if Laois are not up for this, there could be a surprise on the cards
• Limerick are on a bad run lately, and Wicklow, while erratic, might have enough to get them over the line
• Neither Clare nor Longford (for now!) are going to look back on 2026 with fondness, but Clare's superior rating and home advantage should be enough in their 2nd only championship meeting
• Leitrim have taken some severe hammerings over the last 12 months, including a 23 point loss to Carlow. Somehow, Carlow are rated much lower than Leitrim, probably due to Leitrim's surprise win over Sligo.
• Little to be said on Roscommon-Tyrone that is not already known, Roscommon have held a slight advantage in recent meetings, and do appear to be going that bit better. But Tyrone are not going to go away quietly.
• Wexford appear to be on a "2 bad, 2 good" result trend lately, and the game against Fermanagh should be the 2nd in the "2 good" streak
• There is nothing between Antrim and Tipp, with both playing within form. Home advantage to swing it?
• Waterford's recent form is in a sorry state, with one win from the last 20 games. Sligo have been operating at a much higher level, and should take the win in their first ever championship meeting

"Only" 4 games running this weekend:

• We have to go back to 2011 for Derry's last win over Armagh in the SFC (having drawn 1 and lost 3 since then). Both teams appear to stay relatively close to their form (Armagh vs Down an exception), and with that, the rating difference points strongly towards Armagh
• Westmeath are on an almighty run of form, overperforming by between 7 and 16 points in 4 of their last 5 games. Cavan's recent results are not so glorious. Despite their geographical proximity, this will be only their 3rd ever championship meeting
• Hard to believe that Dublin and Louth have approx. the same number of rating points. Both have had some sporadic results lately. Dublin have held the upper hand over Louth recently though, but thinking about all the shocks that happened last weekend, would this one be such a shock?
• Not sure any team in the championship has been as inconsistent as Mayo over their last 7 games, whereas Monaghan do seem to stick to script better. And they seem to enjoy a slight advantage over Mayo in the games (predominantly NFL) from the last 10 years. This will be their 2nd ever championship meeting

Doesn't seem to work from my phone....Will boot up the computer and upload it again

Yep, that seems to have worked!