Inspired by the work of Hanalei in the
hurling ranking thread, I have compiled a football ranking table, again using the IRB ranking system.
As pointed by some contributors on the hurling ranking thread, this system is not perfect, however, I believe it gives an accurate representation of a team's form in comparison to the teams around it. In any case, a "perfect" ranking, in my opinion, can not exist, as apart from people's subjective views, how could we take into account that some team's have a stronger home advantage than others (i.e. Wicklow), that some teams nearly always have the measure of other teams, regardless of form (i.e. Down vs Donegal or Derry), that neighbourly rivalry can negate form (Offaly vs Laois), etc, etc.
Having compiled the results starting from the 2008 championship to present, some of the so-called "shocks" of championship football have become less of an anomaly based on the ranking of teams at that particular point in time (for example, Longford beating Derry in 2012, London vs Leitrim 2013).
One common criticism of the system is that, using the example of the table below, Roscommon on 82,27 pts will gain more in beating a team just below it, for example Galway on 81,39 pts, than they would if they beat a team like Wicklow on 72,92 points. Rather than looking at this as a negative, I think it should be looked on as a way of saying that Roscommon are expected to beat Wicklow and therefore their gain is reduced in comparison to what they would gain from beating a similarly ranked team.
Nevertheless, the system is not without criticism. Because of the 10 ranking point difference rule, a team with a vastly superior ranking will not gain points for beating an inferior team. This effectively means that Dublin, for example, will not gain ranking points for beating teams 10 ranking points below them. Conversely, Westmeath will give up very few points in Division 1. In 2012, Laois were relegated from Division 1 on more points than they went in with, despite winning only 2 out of 7 games. Also, teams can get stuck in a type of warp zone, in that they can win 2 or 3 championship games every year, finish in the top half of league 2 or 3 and maintain a decent ranking.
A major difference from the results of the hurling or rugby rankings is that there is no out-and-out leader of football (compared to KK or NZ) nor is there a such a spread in the points - the 25th placed team has much more of a chance to beat the 5th placed team in football compared to in hurling or rugby (Sligo vs Tyrone in football; Donegal vs Waterford in hurling; Hong Kong vs Ireland in rugby).
So, the current table...........
Position|(previous)|Team|Rating points
1|(1)|Dublin|93,99
2|(2)|Mayo|93,89
3|(5)|Kerry|92,81
4|(3)|Cork|92,2
5|(4)|Tyrone|92,17
6|(7)|Monaghan|89,25
7|(6)|Donegal|89,11
8|(8)|Cavan|87,5
9|(10)|Derry|86,98
10|(9)|Kildare|85,4
11|(11)|Down|85,18
12|(12)|Meath|84,84|
13|(14)|Roscommon|82,27
14|(15)|Galway|82
15|(13)|Laois|81,39
16|(16)|Armagh|80,7
17|(17)|Tipperary|78,91
18|(18)|Louth|78,71
19|(22)|Fermanagh|78,12
20|(20)|Wexford|77,79
21|(19)|Westmeath|77,74
22|(24)|Clare|77,17
23|(23)|Longford|75,63
24|(21)|Limerick|74,78
25|(25)|Sligo|74,74
26|(26)|Leitrim|72,93
27|(29)|Wicklow|72,92
28|(28)|Offaly|72,75
29|(27)|London|72,1
30|(31)|Waterford|70,77
31|(30)|Antrim|70,23
32|(33)|New York|67,22
33|(32)|Carlow|66,96
34|(34)|Kilkenny|61,25
The variables were the winning bonus margin, championship weighting and initial ranking points score.
- I decided on a win of 5 points or more which ncreased the points transfer by a multiple of 1.5. - The choice of 5 points is purely subjective but I think a 5 point win in football is suitable cut-off for a solid win.
- Championship games were double weighted. I know Hanalei didn't originally weight the championship in the hurling, but for football this ensures that the team who wins the championship will finish top of the table (otherwise the ranking system would not align with our perception that the All-Ireland winners are the best team)
- Initial ranking points of 80 were attributed, this was mainly to ensure that the top team has a ranking points score of close to 100
- Croke Park was assigned as home venue for Dublin's games
- I initially compiled the rankings starting from the championship of 2009. I then added the league of '09 and the championship of '08 to see if they would affect current rankings. The results were almost identical, with a maximum change of 0,15 ranking points and a slight re-ordering of 4 teams in the bottom half of the table. I don't think adding previous years would affect the current ranking of the top 10 teams. The one major change would be the further reduction of Kilkenny's rating points
- All other calculations were based on the IRB system.
I will try to keep the table updated here and also try to get a historical table/graph onto Wikipedia.
All comments/criticisms welcome!
