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2026 Galway West By Election

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,007 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    There's seven people on that ballot paper I've not seen a sign up for, a flyer in the door or a canvass from.

    That doesn't mean they havent done those things but they've not crossed my path at all.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,270 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    If your 1st pref will be eliminated early, and your second pref will very likely be in the race until the last three candidates, then there is no need to express prefs all the way down the ballot paper.

    Say you vote:

    1. PBP / Garrity / Aontú, etc.
    2. Kyne / Thomas

    then your vote will transfer once, at the elimination, and then stay in the Kyne or Thomas pile until the end.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,466 ✭✭✭1641


    Say, for example, you vote 1.Garrity, 2.Kyne and leave it at that. And then the last 3 are Thomas, Ogbu and Kyne with Kyne being eliminated. Your vote is wasted is it not?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 76,151 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    In that scenario, if you actually held a specific preference for Ogbu over Thomas, you will waste your preference. This is why you need to keep going until you actually no longer care / can no longer stand anyone.

    However, I believe the poster you're quoting is quite sure that Thomas and Kyne are going to be 1 and 2 (one way or the other) all the way to the end, despite the polls suggesting that is quite impossible. More than a few people here seem to think that though!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,466 ✭✭✭1641


    I have divided the candidate list into 3 sections.

    Firstly, those who I would be happy enough to have as a local rep in the national parliament. I will vote for these in order of preference.

    Secondly, are those who would not be my choice at all but that I would be ok to live with. I will give all of these a lower preference.

    Thirdly, those who I would not like to see elected to represent the constituency under any circumstances. So no vote for any of them.

    I reckon if I don't see one of my preferred candidates elected (from section 1) I will at least contribute to getting someone elected who will keep out anyone from the third group.

    Post edited by 1641 on


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,270 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    So there are three candidates left.

    The original Garrity vote is now in the Kyne pile.

    Kyne is eliminated, that means all of Kyne's votes (including the specific vote) can move again, to another pile.

    Yes, I see your point, fair enough.

    If this was a regular election, and Kyne was elected, not eliminated, only the top slice of votes would transfer as part of his surplus, so the vote would be dead then.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,270 ✭✭✭✭Geuze




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,611 ✭✭✭JohnDoe2025


    You are completely wrong about this. There is a scheme that allows for deferral of LPT until someone dies or sells the house.

    https://www.revenue.ie/en/property/local-property-tax/deferral-of-payment/index.aspx



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,270 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    You are sort of implying that all taxes should be income taxes?

    But we know for a century that property taxes are superior than income taxes.

    Image_OECD_Hierarchy_of_Taxes.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 637 ✭✭✭rustyfrog


    Has anyone in Galway ever ran a Vote #2 campaign? Try survive the first few rounds and live on transfers. There are so many candidates in this race that don't have a realistic hope, someone should mix up the strategy.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,982 ✭✭✭For Petes Sake


    It doesn't really inspire a voter if someone is actively running a campaign where they are saying they're not the best candidate, though.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 76,151 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Doomed to failure - most of your #2s will be from higher placed candidates and you'll be gone on your own small FPV well before that.

    Outside of Galway West I've seen a candidate who would have topped the poll if #2s counted for that - extremely popular, for transfers. This is based on seeing actual ballot papers in tallying/counting/transferring etc. Far and away the highest recipient of #2s from multiple different candidates #1s

    Didn't get in despite having thousands of her own FPV, because most of her #2s were from candidates who got elected on later counts and hence never got used.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,785 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    Ah yes we won't worry about it till now but let's add it after death, a nice 3% interest rate attached as well haha! It has to be paid before a house can be sold as well, that's a nice way of getting the lower earners into a spiral of debt in fairness. Nothing more than I'd expect from FF/FG in fairness

    I am implying that taxes should be based on income, yes. Your lovely image doesn't take into account the Marginal Propensity to Consume. Basically because somebody on lower income is likely to spend more of it in the economy it is better to keep money flowing to them to drive the economy. A property tax has the opposite effect of taxing those on low incomes the same as those on higher incomes as long as they live in similar dwellings. Details below

    https://www.economicsonline.co.uk/definitions/marginal_propensity_to_consume.html/

    I don't think anybody is against a low corporate tax rate, 15% is probably fair enough but 0.005% that we asked Apple to pay is taking the mick quite a bit.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 637 ✭✭✭rustyfrog


    Good point.

    I've seen Vote #2 campaigns elsewhere but that was for multi seat elections with very carefully coordinated campaigning between a group of candidates in different regions across the electoral area. Those candidates would have had #1 campaigns in other areas.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 14,923 ✭✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    Sean Kyne has slipped to 6/4 on Paddy Power which surprises me. I would absolutely have him as favourite. He is the only well known entity in the field. It will be a fascinating count all the same.

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth house?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,007 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    I've said it earlier in the thread but I really cannot see Kyne winning, even with all of the polls he is topping.

    His performance in the last two elections, in my mind, coupled with some of the localised and national bad government sentiment make it difficult for him.

    Time will tell I suppose.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 14,923 ✭✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    Yeah I was skeptical several weeks ago but I have backed him since then. I think he will hoover up all the Hildegarde votes in the east and get lots of transfers from FF and PD (Welby) and Green. I think he will also get some transfers from Labour and SDs too. I think Thomas is too marmite and I don't see the Left candidates getting their transfer strategy to work efficiently. He has done well in all the polls alright.

    I think it's a great bet.

    Post edited by Cluedo Monopoly on

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth house?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 158 ✭✭GippyGup


    Turnout is decently high so far. Curious to see if there's a tea time rush.

    1000014986.jpg
    Post edited by GippyGup on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,308 ✭✭✭✭zell12


    TheJournal.ie running a totally unbiased uninfluenced https://www.thejournal.ie/poll-your-say-galway-west-byelection-7047735-May2026/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 158 ✭✭GippyGup


    Galway West turnout (16:30) / Compared with 16:00 GE 2024

    Maigh Cuilinn: 29% / 30 (-1)

    Salthill: 25% / 33 (-8)

    An Spidéal: 23% / 28 (-5)

    Westside: 22% / 28 (-6)

    Oranmore: 22% / 29 (-7)

    Knocknacarra: 22% / 30 (-8)

    An Cheathrú Rua: 22% / 25 (-3)

    Clifden: 20% / 29 (-9)

    Baile Chláir: 19% / 29 (-10)

    Doughiska: 17% / 19 (-2)

    Cill Rónáin: 17% / 25 (-8)

    Solid numbers for Kyne, Thomas, Ogbu and Nic Fhionnlaoich whose home boxes are tracking the best so far relative to the GE



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 14,923 ✭✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    What are they doing in the Hyacinth house?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,308 ✭✭✭✭zell12


    No. Guess some group are trying to skew the online poll. SF used to do same



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,157 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    They're asking who do you think will win. You could be some raging anarcho-syndicalist and still think Sean Kyne is the correct answer to that question.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 14,923 ✭✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    I got two separate reports of SF canvassing in the city today. Bad form.

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth house?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 76,151 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Canvassing is legal, once it is away from polling stations.

    It's nuts, but it's legal.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 221 ✭✭ThePentagon


    Mark Lohan's campaign van drove past my house about 2 hours ago blaring out what I think was 'Don't Stop' by Fleetwood Mac.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 1,922 Mod ✭✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    image.png

    Total Votes Cast by 8pm

    • 2024 Total: 24,537 votes
    • 2026 Total: 19,707 votes
    • Overall Change: -4,830 votes


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 1,922 Mod ✭✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    Final turnout 2024 v 2026.

    Missing from chart:
    Tirellan finished on 42%
    Ballybane 40%
    Inverin 44%
    The Claddagh 46%
    Shantalla 46.5%

    image.png
    Post edited by WolfeEire on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 158 ✭✭GippyGup


    Doughiska number is shocking. Ogbu might have this. With a handy assist from Nic Fhionnlaoich with decent numbers in South Connemara she couldn't reach on her own. Percent turnout =/= gross numbers but fascinatingly indicative of where the energy/enthusiasm is.

    Moycullen slowed down a lot.

    Urban voters turned out at a decent relative rate. This is all tea leaves but yeah I'd be happy in Labour/Soc Dems tonight. Not strong enough numbers in the county for Kyne or Thomas imo.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,176 ✭✭✭✭ben.schlomo


    Called to my door at 630pm as I was heading out. Must have been 12-15 of them out knocking on doors.



This discussion has been closed.
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