2026 Galway West By Election

GippyGup

Election set for May 22nd to replace Catherine Connolly.

Announced candidates:

Fine Gael - Seán Kyne

Independent Ireland - Noel Thomas

Social Democrats - Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich

Independent - Sheila Garrity

Green - Niall Murphy

Aontú - Orla Nugent

Labour - Helen Ogbu

PBP–Solidarity - Denman Rooke

Independent - Thomas Welby

Not announced:

Fianna Fáil

Sinn Féin (likely Mark Lohan)

Independent (Mike Cubbard)

GBXI

Are Fine Gael not going to add another one or two to the list? It's a mad constituency when you think about it. The difference between the voters in Knocknacarra and Rosscahill or Clifden is just massive.

zell12

Fingers doubly crossed for Gráinne Seoighe. Hopefully this time 😝

GippyGup

City Tribune reporting Alan Cheevers is going to contest the selection convention. Likely to be the Fianna Fáil candidate

GippyGup

Sinn Féin have chosen former councillor Mark Lohan

xckjoo

Cubbard announced now too

GippyGup

Welby is giving it a serious lash, hard to see how it doesn't bite into Noel Thomas's first preferences.

Economics101

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124298114#Comment_124298114

It's a bye-election: only one seat to be filled. FG or anyone adding second or third candidates is a total red herring.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124345697#Comment_124345697

Welby will be eliminated very early I'd say.

Homelander

Can't see it being anything other than a Thomas v Kyne situation in reality.

GippyGup

While I agree I think the problem is that means Kyne wins. And logic would dictate the government can't win. It's a bit of a conundrum of a race.

Unrealistic

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124298538#Comment_124298538

Didn't work out that way. Just heard from someone at the selection convention that Cillian Keane won the nomination. I would have thought Keane was the least likely of the three to be chosen. Yet more confirmation that I will never understand the FF mindset. 😉

GippyGup

Yup, confirmed the Fianna Fáil candidate is Cllr. Cillian Keane. He barely got elected in the 7 seater Athenry-Oranmore in 2024.

Absolutely shocker Alan Cheevers didn't get it. He mustn't be very well liked internally.

FF are gonna be very down the pecking order now. Which means a lot less government transfer for Sean Kyne than expected.

432Hz

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124347980#Comment_124347980

Kyne killed his chances of ever getting elected again by putting himself in Leo Varadkar's pocket and pandering to him instead of his electorate.

thesandeman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124349966#Comment_124349966

Damage limitation I suspect. It will be easier for them to save face by saying "unfortunately we picked the wrong candidate" than "we picked the best candidate but we lost because we are a crap government".

eastie17

where’s Grainne? Or Maria Steen? Wasn’t she mad a while ago to “give back” and be in public office?

Or can you only give back properly when the state gives you a 300k salary, free big house, staff etc?

GippyGup

I've been throwing around the numbers in my head trying to make sense of them. Here's where I have the top three after eliminations and transfers as of now.

Candidate | 1st Count | Top 3

Noel Thomas | 22% | 31% (+9%)

Seán Kyne | 19% | 25 (+6%)

Lohan or Nic Fionnlaoich | 12% | 27% (+15%)

------

This election remains a bit of a puzzle in my head, unlike normal elections, most of the transfers are left wing, not right, but then two of the top three are on the right. As of now I think that means the leading left candidate leap frogs the 2nd place right wing candidate but accidentally elects the other. The order of eliminations at the end will make the difference. But fundamentally the race needs a shake up for the left to win, even with strong transfers.

zell12

Ó Cuív says SDs may win, due to national momentum in both by-elections, and further, language in GW. https://tuairisc.ie/ta-an-seans-ag-na-soc-dems-i-ngaillimh-thiar-ar-an-mbonn-go-bhfuil-gaeilge-ag-a-n-iarrthoir-o-cuiv/

GippyGup

Sinn Féin sources said that [Mark Lohan] was just three votes ahead of his nearest rival, An Spidéal based Kevin O’Hara, at the selection convention in Maigh Cuilinn.

https://www.connachttribune.ie/news/opinion/bradley-bytes-unknown-cillian-keane-was-keen-for-galway-west-bye-election-bid-6530526

Geuze

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124360263#Comment_124360263

Hopefully not, as they are bonkers.

kabakuyu

SDs have no hope.Niall o tuathaill had about 2 attempts at it and was unsuccessful,they struggle to get above 5% of the vote.

GippyGup

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124361199#Comment_124361199

Definitely outsiders but national polls have them at 8.5% and they always outperform national polls in Galway West.

zell12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124361166#Comment_124361166

They said the same about some indo candidate named Catherine who twice failed to get elected to Dáil, then won thrice. Then bizarrely, ran for Uachtaran with no intial party support, and was mocked mercilessly for even trying. GW is too varied to predict imho

kabakuyu

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124361383#Comment_124361383

Not In the last election in 2024,the Sds polled 3.6% in GW while they polled c.5% nationally.

TheCitizen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124361470#Comment_124361470

“smear the hell out of her” was the Fine Gael tactics suggested by failed bookie Ivan Yates. Did FG actually pay Yates for that sage advice? Imagine paying some “guru” for strategic advice and that’s what he comes up with. Went well for them didn’t it.

Feets

Dont know where to type this but do we believe the previous galway candidate Grainne seoige has a valid ai photo complaint. Not sure anyone has seen it and she keeps bringing it up without saying what it is. I call b.s

kippy

Having dealt with several of the named contenders before I can say I'll be basing my vote on who I definitely won't be voting for. I've only met one on the trail for this election and she personally was on the canvas. A very nice and positive individual. She has no track record in politics which in this instance probably is a benefit as this that have a record have been anything but good.

One would wonder who would be best get in for Galway in general as we are seeing that even with a few Galway heads with direct government involvement very little actually changes for the city or indeed county.

Those north of us seemed much better at getting the local issues well onto the government of the days radar.

PL2015

Took me a while to find this thread but now up to 12 officially announced candidates including one Senator, five County/City Councillors and two former Councillors.

Broad overview:

Fine Gael - Senator Seán Kyne polled 8.8% in the last GE (same as 2020) and finished 7th with FG polling 18.8% (marginally up on 18.1% from 2020 when Kyne finished 6th, previous TD from 2011-2020). Based in Connemara.

Fianna Fail - Cllr. Cillian Keane surprisingly got the nomination (I expected it to be Cllr. Alan Cheevers). FF polled 16.8% in 2024 between Connolly and Seoige, down from 22.7% in 2020 when it was O'Cuiv and Crowe. Based in Oranmore.

Sinn Féin - Former Cllr. Mark Lohan missed out on a city council seat in 2024, finishing 7th in a 6-seater. SF topped the poll with 13.5% with Mairead Farrell in 2024, narrowly down on 14% in 2020.

Labour - City Cllr. Helen Ogbu runs again after polling 3.3% in 2024, placing 10th, up on the 2.6% from 2020 with Labour last winning a seat here in 2011 with Derek Nolan.

Social Democrats - First time candidate Míde Nic Fhionnlaich runs here after 2024 candidate Eibhlín Seoighte left the party over the Eoin Hayes debacle. SD's polled 3.6% in 2024 but garnered 6% in 2020 with Niall O'Tuathail (what happened to him?). Nic Fhionnlaich is Connemara-based.

Green Party - Former City Cllr. Niall Murphy runs here after losing his council seat by 90 votes in 2024. Takes the mantle from Pauline O'Reilly who got 3% in 2024, down from 6% in 2020.

Independent Ireland - Cllr. Noel Thomas is the candidate after polling 9.4% in 2024 and finishing 6th, 900 votes off Noel Grealish. First to declare his candidacy and is also Connemara-based.

Aontú - First-time candidate, teacher Orla Nugent runs here after Aontú got 2.1% of the vote share in 2024 and 1.8% in 2020. I believe she is a city-based candidate?

Solidarity-People Before Profit - Arist and activist Denman Rooke is their candidate who unsuccessfully contested the City Council elections in 2024, finishing 17th in a six-seater with just 87 FPV. PBP got 1.5% in the 2024 and 2020 elections.

Independents - Three have been announced so far. Mayor of Galway, City Cllr. Mike Cubbard runs again after polling 3.7% in 2024, 4.4% in 2020, 3.3% in 2016 and 1.4% in 2011. Long-time County Cllr. Thomas Welby is also contesting the election, first time since 2011 when he got 5.4% of the vote and would be relatively close I believe to Noel Grealish as former Progressive Democrats based in Connemara. Finally, Catherine Connolly's campaign manager, Sheila Garrity, is running to succeed Connolly who polled 11.2% in 2024, up from 9% in 2020 and 7.6% in 2016 but was also always very transfer-friendly.

Additionally, Tonn na Clé have agreed a transfer pact between the left candidates of Labour, Soc Dems, Greens, Sinn Féin, PBP and Garrity.

Preview:

There seems to be three main potential outcomes, an Independent Ireland victory with Noel Thomas, a FF/FG win with Kyne or Keane, or a left win for whoever is the strongest.

Initially I thought Thomas would struggle to win this as his 9.4% from 2024 is a long way off the 50% for a by-election but with Grealish not on the ballot, I could see Thomas getting 12-15% of the vote and would surely get a decent chunk of Welby's transfers.

Then you have the FF and FG, I believe FG are in the stronger position with Kyne over Keane and could see FG getting around 17% and FF around 15% with Kyne possibly favourite to top the poll but still a long way away with FFG likely to be very transfer unfriendly except to each other.

Then of the left parties, SF would seem the strongest on FPV with perhaps Lohan on 10-12% roughly and Labour, Greens and Soc Dems another 10-12% between them.

Garrity, Welby and Cubbard are the difficult ones to predict as will Connolly's votes disperse in many directions or can Garrity take advantage while Grealish got 11.4% which Welby will be targeting. I can see Cubbard getting around 4%, Garrity could be as low as 3 but as high as 8% perhaps and Welby around 6%? It will be very interesting to see if any of Ogbu, Nic Fhionnlaich, Murphy, Garrity, Cubbard or Welby can breakthrough the middle pack to contend with FF/SF/FG/II.

If the final three left are Kyne, Lohan and Thomas, order of elimination will surely be crucial. Kyne and Thomas would surely be likely to transfer to each other considering geography and policies but if Lohan got eliminated first, would his transfers favour one of Kyne or Thomas significantly over the other? Or is there a world where the transfer pact is of such benefit that the left candidate will be so far ahead that Kyne or Thomas cannot transfer each other to victory.

It's a great constituency for a by-election with so many candidates and storylines, Thomas is favourite with the bookies, followed by Lohan and Kyne then Keane, Cubbard, Garrity, Ogbu and Welby. Would be nice if TG4 did a poll for this constituency but also surprising that the official date has not been announced yet considering it will be held in May and it is the 7th April. Furthermore, if there is a thread for Dublin Central could someone link it please.

what_traffic

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124369650#Comment_124369650

Great post - how well will Lohan transfer from "the Left" will be the key for me.

Cannot see FF/FG win a seat now with the war on Iran and resulting fossil fuel price increases hitting everyone; especially the rural area's of the constituency; + the Government have been very very slow to react to it.

One would think it should favour a City based candidate; but Lohan has lost a seat as a sitting City Cllr.

Going to be an interesting count - that is for sure!

GBXI

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124370378#Comment_124370378

Yeah it would be a massive shock if either the FF or FG candidate won the seat. It's between Thomas and Lohan with Garrity as a serious outside chance given she will have the backing of all city-based Connolly voters.

GippyGup

Garrity won't feature at all. She'll struggle to finish above Cubbard. One of my personal rules of Irish politics is there's a massive electoral cost to having an accent. That's on top of having no profile and I would say what's developed into the most lackluster ground game of all the candidates.