2026 Galway West By Election

Bookies know nothing, the market is set by the actual bets. If i went and put 20k on Kyne... they'd likely refuse the bet actually, but he'd shoot ahead.

There will not be much money on this with bookies. Polymarket where even dimmer people spend even more money likely has 20X what the bookies too. It has someone who isn't running as second in Dublin Central

I see there are "TRANSFER LEFT" posters going up around the place now. My gut says Ogbu could go a good distance with transfers.

Unable to comment on the Dublin Central thread but I would just say that if those poll results are close then it is clear that Daniel Ennis of the Soc Dems will win and Janice Boylan of Sinn Féin will be runner-up. It will be interesting to see the figures for Hutch (IND), MacAdam (FG) and O'Dea (LAB), and to a lesser extent Horner (GP) to give us some insight on how the next GE will pan out there for the final two seats with SF and SD likely to win one each and not able to win a second presuming one of them win the by-election.

A lot more media attention seems to be going to Dublin Central but actually I think this will be the much more interesting count with this being a three-horse race (Thomas, Kyne, and Ogbu/Nic Fhionnlaoich) compared to a two-horse race with a strong favourite in Dublin Central. I imagine the count in Dublin Central will be faster, both in terms of first count and completion so I imagine that will get more attention Saturday afternoon before the emphasis shifts to Galway West on Saturday evening and I would not rule out a second day of counting on Sunday.

NT's political reporter Sean Defoe, after transfers predicting Kyne to win "he may not be liked but.."

What kind of financial opportunities did he find ?

I didn't know that , I knew he had a small family farm but didn't know he bought land and properties . Are they disclosed anywhere ?

Kyne did say this morning on Adhmhaidin, that if elected, housing will be his priority 😁

Ya turnout is going to be the main issue, and the core party support turnout; its why SF not going to do well at all here in GW.

I say TURNOUT will be 12%-17% lower than the GE.

Weather forecast is showing a warm dry day for Galway West on Friday - so that is going to help turnout by a couple of percent as well here; so that will help Kyne as he polls strongly with the +65 age group.

I think Kyne will win; the TG4 Opinion poll has really helped his cause to get the FG core vote out.

The "Centre" will hold in Galway West.

It is the wealthiest and most prosperous Constituency in Connacht and Kyne is the "face" of that in Galway West in comparison with the baby face FF candidate.

Why not tell us more if you're confident of the veracity of your claims,or are you just indulging in local gossip and innuendo,put up or shut up.

Opposition provides the platform to offer extravagant, cost free and easy solutions. Labour gave ridiculous commitments in the 2011 election ("Labour's way or Frankfurt's way", etc.) etc. These "solutions" rarely survive even passing contact of actually governing and those making them are then discredited. We are seeing that now with Labour in the UK who made great promises while excluding any new taxes to pay for them. Reality doesn't work that way. And that is why the SDs (wisely) declined to enter government after the last election.