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Cold Case Review of Sophie Tuscan du Plantier murder to proceed (Threadbans in OP)

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 386 ✭✭CardF


    No. It doesn't sound familiar.
    In order to have a wrongly convicted man you do normally need a conviction.

    they never use the cycle lane.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,593 ✭✭✭jesuisjuste


    Defying the odds, lol, don't be ridiculous. Your post would make sense if there was also the perpetrator's DNA, and perhaps even members of her family, and the gardai, and housekeeper, and anyone else who interacted with her or any strangers who had been there. They should have picked up multiple traces by your logic. But lo and behold there is nobody else's DNA on her person, even the person who punched her and stabber her 50 times and who got her blood all over him.

    What is the odds of the victim of a brutal murder having only one other person's DNA on them, and that not being the murderer? Way less likely than you make out.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,359 ✭✭✭FishOnABike


    The recent to and from discussion in this thread just goes to demonstrate the adage “You cannot reason a person out of a position he did not reason himself into in the first place.”



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 386 ✭✭CardF


    Its not my logic, its me reporting fact.
    Anyone reading this who has been around people today has strangers dna on their clothes and personal items right now.

    I think your error this time is assuming all police knowledge is made public, or that dna gathering is 100% effective.

    'They should have picked up multiple sources'. Why? why should they have? Are they perfect? Could they not miss some? They took their time arriving. The body was outdoors, exposed to the elements. What is this 'should have' of yours. Should have according to who?

    Or another option, maybe they did and just aren't telling the public. Ever consider that? That the Gardai don't blurt out all sensitive info in the media. Would that shock you?

    Sophie was in airports, towns, shops and at least one bar in the days prior to the crime.
    To think that multiple peoples dna traces weren't in her home and on her person is very unscientific of you.

    "What is the odds of the victim of a brutal murder having only one other persons DNA on them?"
    - You tell me. What 'should' it be.

    they never use the cycle lane.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,593 ✭✭✭jesuisjuste


    You're the one who said it would be defying the odds for the only DNA sample to be found on a murder victim to be the perpetrator. What odds are those, or are you just making it up as you go along?

    And you can speculate all you want, you may want to familiarize yourself the actual facts. The French did extensive testing of over 100 different locations on items taken from the crime scene including the victim’s clothes, the concrete block, the slate block, a small stone & fingernail scrapings, and they found almost every signature was Sophie's and nobody else, except for one unknown male profile, and they sure as sh*t didn't find Bailey.

    Could it be random, of course it could, but it has not been investigated, and until it has been formally ruled out, it is ruled in.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 386 ✭✭CardF



    By all means rule it in, unfortunately its effectively next to meaningless without additional information/technology.

    Until more is added you (jesuisjuste) can only use it for supposition, and add an elaborate explanation on to it. Any old explanation you wish. Its the killers dna, unless it isn't.

    The failure to find other random dna doesn't prove much either. Other than a human failure to find a microscopic trace which probably was there.

    they never use the cycle lane.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,593 ✭✭✭jesuisjuste


    It’s not an elaborate explanation. It’s about as simple as they come, and it’s only meaningless when it is ruled out. The fact that no other dna was found means it is even more meaningful.

    Anyway it is evidence, and it is ruled in, as you say. Meaningful evidence of a possible different perpetrator.
    More meaningful than a Bailey confession? Well that’s just a matter of opinion.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 307 ✭✭Baz Richardson


    Bailey has been convicted. 25 years for murder.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 386 ✭✭CardF


    Fair point, and a good way to contrast conviction from suspicion. We all have the right to suspect anyone of anything.

    they never use the cycle lane.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 386 ✭✭CardF


    "The fact that no other dna was found means it is even more meaningful."

    Thats quite the declaration. Given the fixed mathematical probability of a match.
    The presence of 10,000 other dna samples or the presence of none doesn't increase or decrease the probability of this particular sample leading to the guilty party.

    they never use the cycle lane.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 307 ✭✭Baz Richardson


    We do, however so much is known about the shoddy investigation, dubious methods, unreliable witnesses, and of course the legal experts at the DDP and their view on a file that we have not seen. Surely you can consider the possibility that Bailey could be a potential victim of a miscarriage of justice, as per examples provided?

    In your own words, if one is being logical…



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,593 ✭✭✭jesuisjuste


    Since we don't find multiple hits of DNA, it indicates that casual leaving of DNA on her person in sufficient quantities to be measured by the French, under their testing, is a statistically very improbable event.

    They did not find any trace on Sophie of all the people that she interacted with over the weekend, or on the boots over the likely multiple years that she owned them.

    We know that the perpetrator was in close proximity, and physically touching, punching, stabbing Sophie, the likelihood that they left some DNA on the clothes she was wearing,is higher than almost anyone else.

    On the contrary others likely in close proximity were the pathologist, the manufacture of the boots, Bruno, and perhaps one or two gardai who may have touched her but didn't declare so. Also on the contrary they didn't find any samples anywhere else on Sophie.

    So we can say that the finding of a single sample is meaningful, and more so that they didn't find anyone else's, but I'll admit it's certainly no slam dunk.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,037 ✭✭✭Day Lewin


    I don't claim to know much about DNA or forensic extraction of it.

    But Sophie was wearing night-clothes; (and possibly house-shoes rather than ones worn in town, etc)

    If the clothes had been laundered and were washed and ironed before travel, it is quite possible that no-one but Sophie HAD touched them. She might have just pulled them out of the suitcase to wear and there was no boyfriend or husband or family member present at the cottage to actually touch her night clothes or sleep in the same sheets as her.

    So is ordinary laundering enough to remove all traces of human DNA from clothing? If it is, then that explains why only her own traces were found on the items. And if anyone else's DNA is found, then that would indicate that they were in very close proximity indeed to those previously very clean garments. Just my tuppenceworth!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 386 ✭✭CardF


    absolutely, i always did.
    there is no accusation, i just suspect him the most based on what little is available. (which is my right)
    not from a trove of evidence and excellent police work. but on what few crumbs i can patch together.

    i can find no better suspect. and i dont see anyone naming a better one, id happily suspect someone else if there was more reason to.
    but like i said for that to happen, if it ever does, we all just have to wait for new evidence.

    they never use the cycle lane.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 386 ✭✭CardF


    "They did not find any trace on Sophie of all the people that she interacted with over the weekend, or on the boots"

    You don't know all the people she interacted with over the weekend, or briefly otherwise encountered.

    Sophie touched her boots (and I presume tied/touched the laces). She had been out and about over the weekend, this allows her to pick up strangers dna on her hands (or on purchased objects which she'd later handle), and then to transfer it home and to the boots.
    Even cash will do the same. She touches her cash then some hours later touches her boot. A complete randomers dna is now on her boot. Same with a newspaper which I understand she bought, she definitely touched that.

    they never use the cycle lane.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,593 ✭✭✭jesuisjuste


    The reason for the DNA being oresent could be one of many, as we’ve both continued to establish. This is why it is important for the gardai to investigate it and try to figure out how it got there. It could be casual innocence or from the perpetrator.

    Unless or until it is ruled out, then it is ruled in. A possibility it belongs to the murderer. Simple as that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,026 ✭✭✭eastie17


    So to summarise, 473 pages and still no clue? Just the merry go round of “it was IB” “no it wasn’t, insert theory here”



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 386 ✭✭CardF


    Yes. The case is very lacking in evidence (*available to the public). You can always look at circumstantial evidence if you wish, cant hurt.
    Such as different potential suspects personalities and how these could line up with the stats for such crimes.
    It won't give you much but logically this circumstantial evidence is better than a dead end.

    they never use the cycle lane.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 201 ✭✭Mackinac


    I don’t have the article to hand but I am sure I read in an article last year that the housekeeper had laundered/put away her night clothes.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,037 ✭✭✭Day Lewin


    As far as I know, Mrs Hellen is still alive: they could ask her about this.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,593 ✭✭✭jesuisjuste


    Josie Hellen's fingerprints were already found in numerous places around the house, which is often enough to leave a touch DNA trace. It's not clear who else's was found, but multiple other members of the Hellen family were identified as leaving fingerprints. Josie has a high chance of being found on the clothing too, just by the nature of being her housekeeper. This is why just finding DNA alone might not be sufficient indicator of a perpetrator, but who left it and why is a bigger question.

    Finding Josie's DNA on the clothes can be explained, finding Bailey's or a lot of other people's cannot.

    Finding DNA mixed with Sophie's blood would be very hard for anyone to explain.

    It should be noted that it was 100% not Josie's DNA on the boot (or Bailey's for that matter) as it was an unknown male.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 201 ✭✭Mackinac


    Does anyone have any hope this case will be brought to a conclusion?

    I fear it is one where barring a confession, no one will ever know.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 322 ✭✭Zola1000


    Well ultimately I fail to see how anything can be progressed. I'm upbeat for the power in Mvac in general but I still fail to see how legal logic can ever be applied.

    For example for some of the DNA that can be explained away for that DNA that might crop up that cant be as easily explained.. We are still grappling with idea that lot of these suspects could now be deceased as well adding further to that already layered process of difficulty of validing evidence. I agree it can then maybe a certain family can be investigated too associated with DNA, but it just seems like a process that again can take such long time.

    I just always feel deep down in Ian B scenario, jules daughters would always have had that opportunity to put their neck on the line for their mother had it really come down to it that they knew it was Ian and could have ended that abusive relationship there and then.. I always think that was key area in IB innocence as well..why would they all have covered for him.. If they knew there was strange behaviour around the time.

    There is just so many what ifs and he said she Said in entire case. For me and its only my opinion but It's as wide open today as it was in the days after the murder as to who may have committed this.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 307 ✭✭Baz Richardson


    Jules would also have had her daughters living with a man who she knew had viciously murdered a woman, would she risk her daughters lives? Maybe, but unlikely.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 322 ✭✭Zola1000


    I totally agree. Like it's very unlikely..but there also seems to be very little commentary on these angles or is that just me.

    When the police issued the "will kill again" plea, surely at that stage Jules and her daughters were all at risk, why hadn't police taken them under their protection or surveillance at the time if they had that concern for family.. But there was no concern from what I see but stand to be corrected.

    If there was any hint of doubt in any of daughters minds, I don't think they would have covered for bailey of murder..like it would have just been much easier to focus on protection of their mother and themselves and whilst Bailey would have control somewhat over jules, there is no way that would extend to all the daughters. Bailey had nothing to bargain with to bide himself time.. Any of the daughters could have made a confession based on strange behavior. Wasnt the relationship with Bailey and daughters at times fraught and possibly little conversation?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,959 ✭✭✭csirl


    Tbe best hope of solving this is if the DNA analysis points to someone who was not from the area/unknown to STDP and had no business being at the scene that night.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 307 ✭✭Baz Richardson


    The daughters gave statements supporting how Bailey got the scratches, something that was always ignored by those baying for Bailey's blood. The daughters don't appear to believe him guilty and it's a stretch to think that there is some conspiracy of silence in Jules' family.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 38,633 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Exactly.

    And if they were fearful about being in same house as Bailey then when he was in custody they could have spilled the beans and had him put away.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 322 ✭✭Zola1000


    Yes that's exactly true. There is just no possibility of keeping a veil of silence over it for such long period with so many involved to keep that held with daughters. But very little response in AGS or others to such credibility of the fact that this is further proof of potentially innocent IB in this scenario



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,636 ✭✭✭tibruit


    Based on what is known they had no beans to spill. Two of them were in bed when Bailey left the house and the other came home later to an empty living area. So he wasn`t up writing any article.



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