2026 Galway West By Election

Yeah but I'd bet transfers from whichever or Labour or Soc Dems goes out first pushes the other ahead of him…

If the last two are her and Thomas she'll certainly be in with a fighting chance. Between her and Kyne I don't know because I have no real idea what way Thomas's transfers would go…

I think the only reason they are reporting it is because of how poorly Lohan came out in the TG4 poll. They are trying to position him as best placed on "the left" (as they opportunistically like to position themselves). They are hoping it will persuade Ogbu/Nic Fhionnlaoich voters to switch to them.

If they didn't see it as advantageous in some way there is no way they would be releasing the results.

probably loses the one where Thomas gets eliminated too.

Maybe there's an argument Lohan would be the strongest left candidate in a faceoff with Kyne because he would pick up the biggest chunk of Thomas's transfers? Would certainly be much weaker than Mide or Ogbu against Thomas though…

Eh, there's the FFer, the only one from that area of GW. and Welby, loosely associated with the Regional indos

Erm, er, https://www.galwaybayfm.ie/by-election-2026/by-election-candidate-brands-latest-opinion-poll-gay-fake-news-220529

also methinks Keane was more or less forced by FF HQ to broadcast his school gaeilge this morning https://www.rte.ie/radio/rnag/clips/22611204/

Because he takes the view that the people in Mincloon, Corcullen, etc. are more likely to be persuaded to support him if he takes their side, while the people in Salthill and Knocknacarra are unlikely to vote for him no matter what he does.  

Interesting numbers, I did think Kyne would top the poll at the outset but was not sure how much the fuel protests would have damaged him and considering FG got 18.8% last time, 17% seems strong but I wouldn't be surprised if it was a couple points lower. The high number for second preferences must be FF voters although if that was the case you would expect a similar figure for Keane or perhaps due to Kyne having a favourable geographical base?

Thomas on 16% seems reasonable considering he got 9.4% last time but that 7% second pref figure does stand out however he is still firmly in contention.

Labour with Helen Ogbu on 12% is obviously the massive surprise, I'm not surprised that Labour polled ahead of the Soc Dems but I was convinced SF would be leading the way of the left parties on first preferences but Lohan on just 7% is poor compared to 13.5% in the GE for Farrell, Ogbu got 3.3% last time and Soc Dems got 3.6% so big jump likely for them with Nic Fhionnlaoich at 9%. The Greens at 6% with Niall Murphy seems high considering former Sen. Pauline O'Reilly only got 3% last time while Sheila Garrity is not at the races with only 3%. However, on those numbers surely one of Lab or Soc Dems will get sufficient transfers from the left candidates to surpass one of Kyne or Thomas and make it to the final count.

Poor poll for FF with Cillian Keane, 8% is less than half of the 16.8% from the GE but I think he might get closer to 10% on the day but not in contention. Mike Cubbard at 7% and Thomas Welby at 6% are noteworthy figures, especially Welby's 14% second pref (would they favour Kyne or Thomas?).

Really I think the three most plausible scenarios are that Kyne, Thomas, and Ogbu/Nic Fhionnlaoich are the final 3 candidates remaining.

1. If Kyne gets eliminated first, does his transfers favour Thomas or Ogbu/Nic Fhionnlaoich (could be an urban/rural divide there, FG and Lab used to transfer decently to each and could see their more middle class urban voters transferring left but their more rural voters going with Thomas)
2. If Thomas gets eliminated first, does his transfers favour Kyne or Ogbu/Nic Fhionnlaoich (presumably Kyne unless some people just vote anyone but FFG)
3. If Ogbu/Nic Fhionnaoich gets eliminated first, does her transfers favour Kyne or Thomas (again you would think Kyne but some people may just vote anyone except FFG).

Obviously a lot of other transfers before then with the likes of SF, GP, and Garrity expected to help Ogbu and Nic Fhionnlaoich, FF to boost Kyne, and possibly Welby to support Thomas while Cubbard's will go everywhere.

Dublin Central poll this Thursday at 7pm I believe. SF will need a decent lead over Soc Dems to make it competitive while FF not getting above 10% in either by-election could cause more problems for Martin.

Sitting in the middle of the political spectrum, while holding onto at least second place is a route to winning the seat for Kyne.

Looks like Kyne was concerned about nepotism or some other nefarious appointment system in the Inland Fisheries Board, and was raising it in the Seanad, hardly blackmail if a Senator raises something in public.

1. If Ogbu/Nic Fhionnaoich gets eliminated first, does her transfers favour Kyne or Thomas (again you would think Kyne but some people may just vote anyone except FFG).

Surely massively Kyne if voters are any way rational. If Kyne and Thomas are the last two I expect the former to romp home

I think the same - the SF transfer is what I would be looking at here though. I believe it will go towards the RIGHT i.e Thomas than Left. But if SF have a very low first pref it may not be a factor at all but would confirm that SF not a "real" left transfer party in Galway West for the next General Election.

I think it will in Galway WEST there will be strong transfers between GF/SD/LAB and the Independent Candidate's like Garrity and Cubbard; but SF is the BLACK Sheep.

Welby and Keane will transfer to Kyne over Thomas

Radio1 had a live debate with some candidates there in Galway. Voxpops and another debate coming. Podcast later https://www.rte.ie/radio/radio1/drivetime/