2026 Galway West By Election

I think Ogbu and Kyne have good name recognition from general election. Kyne has been a TD and was FG chief whip so, again, higher profile. As other have said, transfers will decide the outcome. But if left voters transfer to Ogbu then she does have a chance. Otherwise, Kyne might pull off the impossible and win a bye-election for a government party.

Separately, I wonder should this thread be in the "Politics" forum? Would it get more traction there?

The poll really tells us very little.

The margin of error is such that the order could change.

For someone to be a clear favourite in a by-election, they need to be in the mid-twenties and 10 percentage points above their nearest challenger.

Thomas is ex Fianna Fail. Enough said. Any link to that party is toxic these days.

I think he'll get plenty of first preferences though. I'm not sure how transfer friendly he'll be.

I think Kyne will do well so it'll probably be between the two of them for the seat.

There is a FF candidate and another gene-pool FF candidate (Welby) who will give him transfers. Whether it will be enough to keep him ahead of Kyne remains to be seen.

Does the priority of issues shown up in this poll seem odd to anyone else? Particularly when compared to national polling. Much more focused on infrastructure than cost or health than we usually see?

I wonder about the polling method they use on landlines in this day and age which as far as I know isn't used for national polling which is mostly online or occasionally face to face. Even when balanced for age the category of person who uses a landline would surely heavily lean towards people who own their own home as opposed to renters?

nationally, Housing & Cost of Living is tops. Traffic dominates Galway, tis an obsession. Public Transport is odd too, you don't see that in other districts

I'd give Thomas my Number 2.

I'll be putting Thomas Number 2…………….. from the bottom which will be the Niall Murphy. Keane will get my Number 1 followed by Kyne. This is a West Election and people voting are more interested in getting stuff done locally than nationally in this specific election. Might as well vote in someone who will get something done for me.

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Not a snowball's chance in hell will Welby's vote transfer to Kyne after Gateway.. -gate.