2026 Galway West By Election

Unrealistic · 29-04-2026 01:59PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124429112#Comment_124429112

My first reaction was that Sean Kyne on the current poster doesn't look very like Sean Kyne in person or on his previous posters. Comes across as very airbrushed/photoshopped.

GippyGup · 29-04-2026 03:27PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124429404#Comment_124429404

I think it's really unfortunate for Ogbu that her first post-Connolly election is a by election because she could easily win a general election without Connolly but she can't win a by election imo.

Only 4 candidates seriously in contention. Thomas, Kyne, Lohan, Nic Fhionnlaoich (who interestingly is the only candidate so far with posters on Inis Mór)

GippyGup · 29-04-2026 03:42PM

https://www.galwaybayfm.ie/galway-bay-fm-news-desk/galway-county-councillor-martin-mcnamara-resigns-from-sinn-fein-219648?fbclid=Iwb21leARe9-JjbGNrBF730mV4dG4DYWVtAjExAHNydGMGYXBwX2lkDDM1MDY4NTUzMTcyOAABHvek77MUtdnsVbAOWEVF00H4oGu3HfRHjorPy8s2M80H7q52nwLu86Q7CreW_aem_TM0Ga-QsDSgsN8WgTB-tVw

Sinn Féin's Oranmore-Athenry Cllr leaves the party, not great timing

Geuze · 30-04-2026 11:34PM

https://galwayreturningofficer.com/

List of candidates.

GippyGup · 01-05-2026 12:04PM

Ballots are closed, we officially have 17 candidates for the by-election set for May 22nd to replace Catherine Connolly.

Candidates as they appear on the ballot:

Neill Bairéad - Independent

A.J. Cahill - Irish People

Mike Cubbard - Independent

Patrick Feeney - Independent

Sheila Garrity - Independent

Cillian Keane - Fianna Fáil

Seán Kyne - Fine Gael

Mark Lohan - Sinn Féin

Niall Murphy - Green Party

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich - Social Democrats

Orla Nugent - Aontú

Helen Ogbu - Labour

John O'Leary - Independent

Denman Rooke - PBP–Solidarity

Micheal Ryan - Independent

Noel Thomas - Independent Ireland

Thomas Welby - Independent

GippyGup · 01-05-2026 12:04PM

My instincts is this rush of random no-hope independents will limit the first preferences of Noel Thomas and Mike Cubbard. Might be only worth 2% - 3% all combined but that could all make the difference in the end. Pushes Thomas down the end of a long ballot.

GippyGup · 01-05-2026 12:55PM

I've updated my own personal projection I've been using. Not much change, Aontú down a point for lack of momentum/canvassing team compared to Independent Ireland, and adding in the new Independents who will struggle to break 2%.

It all points in one direction, while there are 4-6 credible candidates. Only two can feasible win, Thomas and Nic Fhionnlaoich.

I expect the top four to be Thomas, Kyne, Lohan, Nic Fionnlaoich.

Victory for Thomas: Kyne gets eliminated in 3rd or 4th place. He gets the mountain share of those transfers, a lead too large to overcome. This is the most likely outcome.

Victory for Nic Fhionnlaoich: Lohan gets eliminated, she gets a high amount of transfers, when Kyne is eliminated in third place urban Fine Gael voters and Gaeltacht Kyne voters make it so Thomas doesn't sweep.

Trap for Lohan: If he wins the left vote and Nic Fhionnlaoich gets eliminated, when Fine Gael is eliminated Thomas gets elected not Lohan even with a lead. I don't see a world where Thomas gets eliminated before Kyne right now unless something changes, which is Lohan's only path.

Trap for Kyne: As the government candidate he should expect some but not a lot of Thomas' transfers should he be eliminated. Some of the left vote will go to Thomas as the last remaining opposition. Kyne's problem is he has no trasnfers to get above Thomas before the left coalesces. No viable path.

Cluedo Monopoly · 01-05-2026 10:34PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124435006#Comment_124435006

Good analysis. I am not sure the SD vote will be that significant here. She is new/unknown and not living in Galway in recent years. Woke is losing popularity. The Irish speaker will certainly help.

Homelander · 01-05-2026 11:00PM

There is a big left/anti-coaltion vote in Galway West.

At this point I would say Thomas, Lohan or Míde in that order.

Denman Rooke, already from a position of no hope, seems more interested in attacking the other candidates.

GippyGup · 01-05-2026 11:12PM

TG4 / IrishTimes Galway-West poll out Thursday 7pm

PL2015 · 02-05-2026 02:49PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124436591#Comment_124436591

Worth noting that TG4 conducted four constituency opinion polls for the last GE - Mayo, Donegal, Galway West and Kerry where there are all sizeable Gaeltacht and Irish-speaking areas. They were actually very accurate in 3 out of the 4 but there least accurate was Galway West as they overstated FG by 4 points and understated SF by 4 points and FF by 2 points but got a lot of the smaller parties and indo's pretty accurate. Also noteworthy, FG were overstated by 3 points in Donegal, 4.2 points in Galway West, 3.9 points in Kerry, and 3.9 points in Mayo, was this just support FG lost in the 2 weeks leading into the 2024 GE especially with the Kanturk incident or just coincidence? TG4's sample size is usually in the 500's which carries a higher margin of error, hopefully this one is at least 800, presumably IPSOS will be the pollster.

rustyfrog · 02-05-2026 04:29PM

Very strange canvassing from the Kyne campaign, jumped straight into why the election is being called and why Catherine Connolly was bad for Galway, for not supporting the "outer city bypass".

Misjudged the audience, pushed Kyne down the list instead of up.

Cluedo Monopoly · 02-05-2026 05:50PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124437996#Comment_124437996

They are afraid of the United Left transfers putting SD or SF ahead of Kyne especially since Kyne won't get that many transfers from FF. I have talked to Kyne and I don't think his heart is in this campaign at all.

kabakuyu · 02-05-2026 05:59PM

Had the labour canvassers out,answered all my questions and they said they approve of the By pass ring road gluas cycle bus lane as well.

One thing I did notice was the posters fl hoisted by Labour and the SDs weeks before the by election was called,these were just Election posters under the guise of posters for public meetings,poor form IMo and I hope it doesn't become common place.

GippyGup · 02-05-2026 07:06PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124438335#Comment_124438335

Already common place. I believe Aontú, Sinn Féin, and the Green Party did the same. Nothing wrong with it. It's been common place since the state was founded

kabakuyu · 02-05-2026 08:03PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124438564#Comment_124438564

I have seen plenty of posters declaring public meetings but these were election style posters with the candidates portrait taking prominence and the same dimensions as election posters,the only difference was the script announcing some dubious public meeting.The candidates portrait and name took prominence,it's electioneering by the back door.

kabakuyu · 02-05-2026 08:06PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124429805#Comment_124429805

Some would even say unrealistic.

monseiur · 02-05-2026 09:05PM

Was talking to a lad today in Ballinasloe, he's an agriculture advisor - said that he's a friend of Sean Kyne. He mentioned that he worked with Sean in the agri. business before he went into politics. (for some reason I assumed he was a teacher !)

In relation to the election he said that the mood in Sean's camp is not good, it seems he and his canvassers are finding it hard going on the stump so expect his first preference vote to be way down meaning a very early exit from the race. He will finish his term as senator will have a nice pension, ride off into the sunset never to be heard of again.

zell12 · 03-05-2026 05:10PM

Will there be an RTE television debate like this one https://www.rte.ie/news/2026/0503/1571549-dublin-central/ as there appears to be no TG4 eagrán

GippyGup · 03-05-2026 05:17PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124441041#Comment_124441041

You'd assume so. I wonder how they'll pick the contenders. 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 Independent would be a pretty poor representation given that's how they got to this panel.

Cluedo Monopoly · 03-05-2026 05:24PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124441041#Comment_124441041

Yes. Next weekend I think they said.

Geuze · 03-05-2026 08:20PM

Boyle Sports odds today.

GippyGup · 03-05-2026 08:58PM

I'm genuinely curious what FPV people expect the top four of Thomas - Lohan - Nic Fhionnlaoich - Kyne to get. I'm currently overestimating Thomas at around 20% to try and account for his momentum but it's unlikely he'll reach that high.

Kyne should be around 14%, he's a stronger candidate than he gets credit for online.

Lohan and Nic Fhionnlaoich could come in neck and neck around 12%

GippyGup · 06-05-2026 06:32PM

With a nauseating amount of qualifiers, the Inside Politics/Irish Times podcast panel on Galway West seemed to all but present it as a two horse race, Thomas versus Nic Fionnlaoich.

If the TG4 poll supports this tomorrow the media seems is pretty primed to support this narrative

what_traffic · 06-05-2026 07:00PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124448737#Comment_124448737

Considering Míde has not even been primarily based in Galway West the last number of years, is not a sitting Cllr, then it would be some coup then to pull off winning a by-election seat.

Is the left alliance throwing all their weight behind her now for 1st preferences or is still a Vote Left – Transfer Left’ campaign ?

Cluedo Monopoly · 06-05-2026 07:37PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124441812#Comment_124441812

I have a feeling Thomas will get more than 20% FPV. I now think Mide is way oversold. The FF/SF candidates will really struggle for profile too. Not sure about Kyne but he's the only credible candidate in the race. Can't see Kyne winning of course and if he went out 4th/3rd last, Thomas would get a lot of his transfers and cruise to victory.

GippyGup · 06-05-2026 07:55PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124448844#Comment_124448844

Thomas is still the favourite for sure but I don't see any candidate breaking 20% in Galway West, it's too big/diverse a constituency. Eamon O'Cúiv only managed it once. There's too many different constituent parts. Not sure there's another constituency like it.

If he does manage to break 20% then I agree he can't be caught but I don't think it's possible for anyone to do

what_traffic · 07-05-2026 03:52PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124448873#Comment_124448873

I agree, it is an unusual Constituency. Here it is in all it's detailed GLORY: "https://assets.gov.ie/static/documents/dail-constituency-map-galway-west.pdf" Connemara North and South population combined is still only half that of the City itself.

what_traffic · 07-05-2026 06:05PM

55mins to go

L1011 · 07-05-2026 07:06PM

Poll is baffling on the face of it. Kyne, Thomas, Ogbu.

All three with a path to win if they are 1, 2, 3 and the second preference polling holds up.

2026 Galway West By Election

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