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Tesla Talk 2

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 61,076 ✭✭✭✭unkel


    Looks like Tesla already have half a million monthly FSD subscribers. Now that is money for nothing (zero marginal costs) for Tesla. At $100 per month, this brings in $600 million per year. I'd say provided all of the EU gets the green light for FSD and there is full rollout in China too, it could well be over a million subs before the end of next year

    Tesla have sold 9 million cars in total, of which there are 5 million HW4 cars, so with the cars sold this year and next, my prediction means an uptake of 12-13%

    "Make no mistake. The days of the internal combustion engine are definitely numbered" - Quentin Willson, 1997



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 35,672 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    I did. Asked and answered.

    99218.jpg

    As I said. He's shilling his product. You know this, I know this we all know this.

    Why you thought this is 'public advocacy' is beyond me. I'm trying to mull this over. Would you define this for the Vodafone manager down your local store selling their data plans out the front of the store?

    Would you define this for the services director doing an RFP in front of public representatives ?

    I mean where does promoting your own commercial interests.... And discussing programs for public good start and stop.

    Post edited by listermint on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 6,107 ✭✭✭...Ghost...




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 35,672 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    Excuse me ghost that's not 'a public advocacy group' which was the point wassie was making and the point I had issue with.

    Him advocating for products publically is not the same as 'public advocacy'. I understand youre trying to dick around here with words for the crack as you've form in this space. But you've deliberately phrased that question for purpose.

    He's shilling his products publically, is not the same as being a public advocacy group, its an attempt to frame this as some independent positive action grouping on behalf of the public.

    Once again youre fully aware of the point . No idea why you do this . Like what's the crack my man ?

    Actually you even decided to remove the terms publical advocacy. You've enough of a grasp of the English language to understand the difference.

    Can we just agree framing this as a public advocacy group was silly by wassie and move on. It's corporate work for corporate sales in a regional market. The jazzing up of Tesla news into weird mental gymnastics is just oddball.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 6,107 ✭✭✭...Ghost...


    Who said this about the public advocacy group? I don’t see where @wassie claimed the Aussie was acting as part of a public advocacy group. I only saw that there was advocating publicly by the Aussie, which is accurate and to be expected.

    The framing of words matter, which was my point above. We can both enter similar questions in a targeted way into an LLM and get the answer we want.

    I don’t see any scandal here. Tesla employee advocates publicly for CT and increased sales. Nothing to see here.

    Stay Free



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 35,672 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    100 percent words do matter.

    Rumors from local advocacy groups in Aus suggest Tesla is waiting for a specific production milestone at its Texas plant (best guesses seem to be 250,000 units/year) before introducing the they consider retooling for a RHD.

    If anyone reading this doesn't think framing someone as local advocacy groups doesn't mean some independent folksy people then your being obtuse because it's me who pointed it out.

    When pressed wassie then said it was the sales director of Tesla.

    So like , come on man. Let's quit the games.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,382 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    pressed? you mean you asked he answered, literally no one gives a toss except you, you have decided what advocacy means in this instance to suit your agenda basically. its tiresome man.



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 42,579 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gumbo


    Imagine, a sales person actually promoting the product they sell…..

    What’s the beef here? Are companies not allowed to promote their product?

    No different to BYD, BMW, Kingspan, Toyota ads on TV…….



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 35,672 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    Ah grand ,.I'm glad we're in agreement then that it was phrased as being local advocacy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 35,672 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    I don't recall saying they or he shouldn't ? Did I ?

    Not sure of the point being made here…



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  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 42,579 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gumbo


    Not sure of the point being made here.
    At least you’ve agreed to that.
    nonsense.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 35,672 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    Agreed to what nonsense, not once did I say a sales director shouldn't be pushing or advocating his products not once.

    What I said is we shouldn't be calling this local advocacy.

    So it seems we're in firm agreement .

    Thanks !



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 42,579 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gumbo


    Maybe, in your head.

    But this is all i see in your every post unfortunately.

    82D06436-DBD8-4209-87AC-7199EF49669E.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 6,107 ✭✭✭...Ghost...


    I didn't want to be drawn further into this. It's become all too frequent that you are posting here with anti Tesla/Musk sentiment at best to stroke your ego and at worst to troll. I love the chat, banter and a bit of poking fun, but your posting style in this forum suggests to me that you are incapable of good faith posting due to your strong dislike of Tesla and Musk. Let's have a look….

    You seem intent on misrepresenting what others say. You had a canary about it a few pages back when your post history was used to challenge what you were saying about FSD in Europe.

    @wassie first mentioned rumours of "local advocacy groups in Aus" (plural) in post 3074. He furthered this…."going by the rumour mill", so not what I would consider substantially proven/believed. Definitely not a statement of fact.

    image.png

    You then asked about "the local advocacy group (singular) in a manner i'm sure was not intended to come across as cynical.

    image.png

    @wassie replied to your request, saying that the most significant "advocate" is Thom Drew. He added/implied that the TOCA was another local advocacy group, as well as the AEVC and AEVA indirectly by pushing for standards and regs which would allow the CT to be sold in Aus.

    image.png

    The first mention of the public was @Cyrus suggesting you take a day off. He said advocating is the act of publicly supporting. Do you disagree with that meaning?

    Your response was to say Thom Drew is not public, he's staff. That's where your error in thinking is shown. Nobody said he was a public advocate, or that he wasn't a company man trying to sell more products. You were putting words into someone else's mouth. One can publicly advocate without being a public advocate. You conflated the two.

    You shouldn't complain when challenged (or get attacked as you claimed) when you're the person who started to stir the proverbial and call peoples points irrelevant and mute.

    image.png

    Finally, I do have a good grasp of the English language. It is why I pointed to the fact that it is easy to have AI fart out an answer you want if you phrase the question a certain way. If you don't understand that; I proved that your use of AI was null and void as an attempt to prove the point you were trying to make.

    It is you who seems to be playing word games and pretending people have said things they did not say. I never mentioned any public advocacy group. Again, you're putting words into other peoples mouths. I specifically said "publicly advocating", which means he (Drew) was using his platform to advocate for Tesla and did/does this publicly….in other words, his advocating is not confined to the boardroom. You know difference, as do I, as does anyone else with a grasp of the english language.

    So, No! We can't just agree with your statement that @wassie was framing this as a public advocacy group, because the evidence does not support your claim. Your statement is false and the mental gymnastics are only coming from one place as far as I can see. Happy to be proven wrong and apologise. I'll leave it there unless and until that proof materialises. Have a good day.

    Stay Free



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 35,672 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    What would you call local advocacy then ?

    In any serious context. You spent a rich amount of time putting your argument together.

    But if I said do you a local advocacy group in Dublin were complaining about the lack of bus infrastructure for example. What would you immediately assume they are ?

    Would you assume it was a bus company? Q bus company director? A sales person from a bus manufacturer?

    Or like me and pretty much anyone reading that statement would you think it was the public , members of the public who are local trying to force the conversation as independents.

    I think we both know the answer full well. If anyone else questioned the statement it would have been agreed and settled.

    This is not local advocacy nor is it public advocacy. Interchangeable statements they are , none of them would be attributed to a private company director pushing his product. 👍

    Well agree to disagree and we can all move on forwards with ourselves.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,615 ✭✭✭wassie


    I said I wouldnt respond as I didnt want to derail the thread but you continue to misrepresent what I am saying.

    You said I got sources from Twitter which is an unsubstantiated claim. I am not on twitter. The only social media I am on are forums likes Boards. Im on a few in Aus (as well as UK & US) which is where I get a lot of my sources, as well as news feeds.

    I explained in detail who was "advocating" - let use the words "publicly lobbying" if you prefer. Either way its semantics and misleading. Its not the point I am making, yet you are focused on it.

    Yes also the Aus director has suggested this 250K figure, but as I stated, its also been discussed in Aus forums and local EV news outlets like The Driven. The 250K figure is discusses openly treated as the profitability threshold - but we will never know for sure. But the consensus among these groups is that Tesla won't split its manufacturing focus until the main production line until this is achieved (what ever that may be). Google it. Its not hard

    All Ive been saying all along is "this is interesting as its a RHD market and if the CT is to ever come to Ireland it may well start in Aus/Oceania first." It also may amount to nothing.

    This is not an unrealistic view. The Model Y-L 6 seater was just released this month in Aus - the first country outside of China to to do so.

    As for your other misrepresentations:

    First to force the conversation?

    I said currently, not first. There nuance to this and it changes the argument. Read what I wrote and dont misrepresent me.

    Your claiming Australia doesn't have right hand drive pick up EVs. Which they do.

    No I didnt. Read what I wrote and dont misrepresent me.

    Your claiming there's a lack of conversation around this space and somehow Australia is going the lead the charge here so this vehicle will therefore come to Ireland

    Again misrepresentation.

    And your playing fast and loose with the term heavy duty pickup here with highly questionable off road capabilities.

    Thats very dramatic sounding, but the topic is actually quite mundane. i.e. Towing capacity. And no one is talking about off-road. Once again, misrepresentation.

    And then you claim there's no robust discussion with me yet the first call to action from the poster above you and then you is to call me names and vilify. Robust discussion involves rebuttal of the points I made. Not attacking the poster.

    You misrepresent me with "claims" as shown above, yet when I call you on your nonsense its "vilification" and you fail to respond i.e wheres the rebuttal.

    Its not views that peeps take exception with, its the posting style. It is antagonistic and disrespectful. Do not confuse this with robust debate.

    Its not that I have hurt feelings either. Its just hard for posters to read the discussion when it gets hijacked by someone constantly shouting down other without adding anything constructive to the discussion.

    As I said, Im not on social media, other than forums like Boards. Ive learnt a lot of the years by having my own views challenged and reading the views of others.Its something I enjoy. And at times I've been a bit of a d!ck and have been called out on it, including by posters in this chat. Hopefully I've learnt to read the room and improve my posting style to contribute to the discussion.

    Edit: @listermint your on the ignore list so any response wont be read by me.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 35,672 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    Fair enough, and well articulated, so thank you. It's more effort than you put into your first few jibes which is guess why you made it more detailed rebuttal to points , Thank you and I appreciate it. (Don't take that as sarcasm it's not).

    As for the ignore list, your choice i don't put people on them unless they're an obvious single issue troll. You won't be on mine.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,785 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    I'd say 90% of those half a million subscribers will only be subscribing for a month to test it out. Still - that's 50m in one month for, as you correctly say, nothing



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 61,076 ✭✭✭✭unkel


    No, there are half a million paid subscribers already. The free one month trial is not included in that. So my guess is that uptake will be at least 10-15% in HW4 cars (worldwide) that have FSD available by the end of next year. Any comments on that? I always make my predictions clear and open on here

    "Make no mistake. The days of the internal combustion engine are definitely numbered" - Quentin Willson, 1997



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,146 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    Red didn't actually say they were free trial subscribers, if you read again



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 998 ✭✭✭Pete123456


    I appreciate the road is marked on the edges but I think this video gives an idea of how FSD (Supervised) might behave on country/narrow roads. It waits when necessary and is assertive when it needs to be, the pull-in areas could just as easily be gateways or other areas of a country lane.


    https://x.com/TSLA_inside_/status/2049944816381833713/video/1?s=46



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,382 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Be easy enough prove or disprove that I guess over the next few quarters

    These numbers would suggest a flaw in your assertion

    Metric Q4 2025. Q1 2026

    FSD Subscribers 330,000 476,100 (+44%)

    Full Purchases ~70% of paid users 63.3% (823,900)

    Subscription ARR — ~$565M



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 61,076 ✭✭✭✭unkel


    Why would you subscribe and pay for a month to test it out when you can get a free month to test it out?

    I have friends in the Netherlands who got a free month of FSD just a few days after RDW approved it for the EU

    "Make no mistake. The days of the internal combustion engine are definitely numbered" - Quentin Willson, 1997



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 61,076 ✭✭✭✭unkel


    Why would you subscribe and pay for a month to test it out when you can get a free month to test it out? That makes no sense.

    I have friends in the Netherlands who got a free month of FSD just a few days after RDW approved it for the EU. Pretty sure all new HW4 cars in the USA have got a free month of FSD too. There's 1.5 million of those. I doubt a high percentage did not bother trying if for free

    So those figures are obviously not counted in the half a million paid for subscriptions, although of course you can cancel at any time

    "Make no mistake. The days of the internal combustion engine are definitely numbered" - Quentin Willson, 1997



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 61,076 ✭✭✭✭unkel


    So are none of the usual suspects going to state Tesla will never have a million monthly paying FSD subscribers? 😁

    "Make no mistake. The days of the internal combustion engine are definitely numbered" - Quentin Willson, 1997



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,785 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    I wasn't aware of the free month trial

    1m subscribers is not impossible I'd argue considering how many Tesla cars are on the road I'd say it's very achievable



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 35,672 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    Am I usual suspect ?

    Not sure I've ever claimed that. I've stated it's not safe and shouldnt be
    a) called full self driving (cos it's not its a fake term) and the term full is false

    b) relies on inferior technology inputs and isn't on any level a future for Tesla vehicles. And they will change it.

    I don't think I've ever stated they don't find enough fools to con in their base.

    But id also say their figures are always questionable theyre an unreliable source of data, especially under the guise of chief liar and merry band of associated liars on the board.

    And since you're a prediction man. Tesla will bring back lidar mark my words cos they look like absolute fools in the self driving space. Being eclipsed by Chinese capabilities in this space.

    They'll roll back all those proclamations, once they come back and concentrate on cars. Their core product.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 61,076 ✭✭✭✭unkel


    It was you who stated that FSD supervised would never be approved by the RDW. Soon after was approved

    So from what date do you expect all new Teslas to be equipped with lidar? 😂

    "Make no mistake. The days of the internal combustion engine are definitely numbered" - Quentin Willson, 1997



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 35,672 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    Not what I said but we've legislated that. So like lets not.

    Lidar they'll reintroduce it before 2028 or the company will be gone from car manufacturing and into some other spinoff swallow hole. Note this down , I said you can bookmark things btw. Why don't you hold me to my word?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 61,076 ✭✭✭✭unkel


    I hope you are not denying again that you stated FSD would (not should) never be approved by the RDW. We clearly showed you that you did.

    But thanks for the prediction, we have 2 predictions to check on new year's eve 2027 😁 You don't want to take bets, do you?

    "Make no mistake. The days of the internal combustion engine are definitely numbered" - Quentin Willson, 1997



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