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Connacht Team Talk Thread VI - Some like it TOH

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,094 ✭✭✭✭flazio


    Bit of a walk but the IDA park in Mervue tends to be quiet on weekends and evenings. (You could take the 401 bus down a couple of stops)

    This too shall pass.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,736 ✭✭✭realhorrorshow


    It's really hard to predict but I think 50+ points might be required for top 8. Had a go at mapping it out but there's quite a few games that could go either way.

    image.png image.png

    Bulls have the easiest fixture list and I think will pull away from this group and challenge for top 4. That leaves Cardiff, Munster, Lions, and ourselves competing for three spots, although Sharks could come into it if they win one of their away games.

    Ultimately it's somewhat in our own hands. If we beat the three teams in this group we have a very strong chance, if we lose one it becomes a toss up, if we lose two we're probably done for.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,073 ✭✭✭typhoony


    So we have to beat the Ospreys, if we dont I think our season is done as I dont see us picking up enough points from the other 4 games.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,279 ✭✭✭✭Utopia Parkway


    Jackman mentioned Aungier going to Munster again for next season in a podcast this week so it must all be done behind the scenes.

    Don't expect SHL to stay at this stage but if they could keep him and get a good lock forward in it would be fantastic. Hansen back would nearly be like a new signing at this stage.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,226 ✭✭✭bingobango12


    Interestingly I did the same for the top 8 and came up with the following (Leinster supporter for the record so maybe looking at it differently):

    Ulster

    64

    Glasgow

    63

    Stormers

    63

    Leinster

    61

    Bulls

    60

    Lions

    54

    Cardiff

    53

    Sharks

    52

    Munster

    50

    Connacht

    50

    My 5-10 thinking is Bulls and Sharks win all remaining (a big if though for the Sharks), Lions win all remaining home games + 1 point on the road, Cardiff beat Scarlets, Ospreys and Stormers (not sure on the Stormers one), Connacht get nothing from SA trip but 5 points the rest, Munster beat Benetton and Lions with a LBP against Ulster.

    Whatever way the games go, I think 50 at a minimum will be needed for top 8.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,736 ✭✭✭realhorrorshow


    That seems reasonable, only real difference seems to be you're more bullish on the SA teams and more down on Munster.

    Sharks haven't won a league game outside of SA for almost a year so I don't back them to do much in the away games, but they always have the talent to pull it out of the bag.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,513 ✭✭✭seanin4711




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,226 ✭✭✭bingobango12


    Yeah I think Sharks are the real swing one. The fact they are playing Edinburgh and Ospreys away made me lean towards them, but very real chance they lose either of those and they won't be in the picture as I feel 50 points minimum will be needed.

    I think with the fixtures my take on Munster is realistic to be honest. Can't see them getting anything this weekend, I would have them getting nothing at Connacht in Galway the way both are currently playing, and can see Ulster beating them (that's probably a 50/50 though). I think they have the hardest run in out of everyone with Benetton away not a gimme either. Lions at home is the game I think they will definitely win but that's the only one I would be confident in saying they will win.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 309 ✭✭big-al


    Ulster will probably send a very weakened side down to Munster (especially if we are still in the challenge cup)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 772 ✭✭✭ShineyShiney


    I think Ospreys and Benneton might drop out of the race this week and I think Cardiff will have enough to get the job done over the last 5 games. Sharks home last 2 games against Italian sides with nothing to play for makes me think they will also get there.

    That leaves a 3 way battle (Connacht, Munster & Lions) for 7th and 8th with each of us playing the other 2. Its in our own hands. Exciting league.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,583 ✭✭✭ElisaAtWar


    Dont think so. Munster is in a big hole and it doesn't have the quality to get out of this hole anytime soon. Ospreys and Edinburgh are very much for the taking these days so I don't see 15 points as unrealistic. Which brings us to 50 points. And our two games in SA are neither impossible.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,876 ✭✭✭Ben Bailey


    Best spot for parking on the busier days. There's a pedestrian exit nearer Dexcom (down steps) from the car park.

    Post edited by Ben Bailey on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,876 ✭✭✭Ben Bailey


    Huntsman car park fills up very early. Your best bet is in the IDA carpark at 1 Wellpark Road. Enter the IDA campus & turn left. Park as far down as you can & take the pedestrian exit down the steps onto Wellpark Road

    You'll find the steps on Google Maps at just before 51 Wellpark Road. Post match traffic near the Dexcom will be v.busy. You might think of exiting left from IDA rather than coming back into traffic.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,736 ✭✭✭realhorrorshow


    I have it on good authority that we tried to sign Stephen Smyth. Shame it didn't happen but glad we tried, would have been a great successor for Dave Heffernan. We have options but none with Heffernan's physicality.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,073 ✭✭✭typhoony


    I dont understand why people think Ospreys and Edinburgh are easy points. The games between us have been close the last few years. They have Jac Morgan back i think who will give us a hard time at the breakdown. I think it will be a tight game as in plenty of scores but only a score between us.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,207 ✭✭✭KBurke85


    Connacht Rugby vs Ospreys

    Saturday 28th March, 14:15 @ Dexcom Stadium

    Number/Name/Caps
    15. Sean Naughton (11)
    14. Shane Jennings (31)
    13. Cathal Forde (67)
    12. Bundee Aki (160)
    11. Finn Treacy (18)
    10. Josh Ioane (27)
    9. Ben Murphy (30)
    1. Denis Buckley (274)
    2. Dave Heffernan (229)
    3. Finlay Bealham (227)
    4. Niall Murray (92)
    5. Darragh Murray (52)
    6. Josh Murphy (55)
    7. Shamus Hurley-Langton (59)
    8. Paul Boyle (130) (C)

    16. Matthew Victory (4)
    17. Billy Bohan (7)
    18. Sam Illo (42)
    19. David O’Connor (19)
    20. Sean O’Brien (27)
    21. Matthew Devine (27)
    22. Jack Carty (231)
    23. Oisín McCormack (4)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,017 ✭✭✭Zeugnis


    This is going to be a tough contest, unfortunate that we're going in to this without Jansen, Prendergast, and Joyce. Lancaster places a lot of importance on leadership, so will be interesting to see who takes on that role tomorrow in addition to Boyler and Bundee.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,583 ✭✭✭ElisaAtWar


    All of the players mentioned are being rested as far as I know. Good to see that replacements are by no means shabby. You would suspect that SHL will be rusty after such a long layoff but having Prendergast and Jansen missing the back line still looks solid. And the two Murrays ain't shabby in the second row.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,736 ✭✭✭realhorrorshow




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 772 ✭✭✭ShineyShiney




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,583 ✭✭✭ElisaAtWar


    Denis is available



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 405 ✭✭AccidentallyOnside


    Big fan of both Murrays but not sure if I'm a fan of playing them together, we've looked undersized and underpowered in the past when playing them together. Osprey aren't the best team in the league but no mugs either so we'll need to be on our game today.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26 Cherryson


    Anyone have any idea as to why there are so many empty seats?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,736 ✭✭✭realhorrorshow


    We're up against it here, that's a very imbalanced fifteen on the pitch.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,098 ✭✭✭Paddy_Mag


    No control at half back for connacht so far. All too hectic. Just need to play the conditions a bit better. Kick in behind, grabbers etc. Trying to keep ball in hand too much



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,288 ✭✭✭kabakuyu


    Ref is poor .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,736 ✭✭✭realhorrorshow


    Got away with one there. Need a big impact from the reserve forwards because that backline is not going to cause many issues for the Ospreys with three 10s, two 12s and very little pace.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,279 ✭✭✭✭Utopia Parkway


    That last pass looked forward. If they hadn’t ruled out one try already I bet they would have had a lot closer look at that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 405 ✭✭AccidentallyOnside


    5 points would have been better, but with 7 to go it was still in the melting pot so getting the win was critical.

    Going to need to pick up something in SA now, 3 or 4 points would be great regardless of how we get them, but will be some ask.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,917 ✭✭✭Redo91


    Strange call to kick it out at the end. You could see some players didn’t agree and not many around me in the stand did either. Really could have done with the BP given how tight it is and we were deep inside their half so far more likely to score than concede.



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