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US/Israel conduct airstrikes on Iran again

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 927 ✭✭✭bored65


    Attempted missile attack on Diego Garcia

    https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-us-israel-war-updates-2026/card/iran-targeted-diego-garcia-base-with-ballistic-missiles-rb7MdZW1CfwRTauDYHOt

    Same distance as Iran to Ireland it is worth noting, especially for those defending attacks on non belligerents and neutrals in this war, treating it like some team sport



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,439 ✭✭✭brickster69


    No i am not ok with any kids being killed in any conflict anywhere.

    The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born: now is the time of monsters. — Antonio Gramsci



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 6,134 ✭✭✭Widdensushi




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,628 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    What it boils down to for some is that the Americans may have been bad actors, but they are our bad actors - and anyway the alternative would be worse. This is usually where discussions of this nature end up. As i said previously you need to have amensia of convenient to maintain the moral high ground persona to defend US foreign policy and to characterise criticism of it as knee-jerk reactionism.

    You can imagine the response you'd get from the same people if you said critcism of Russia is just knee-jerk reactionism.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 927 ✭✭✭bored65




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 862 ✭✭✭Fuascailteoir


    Looks like the rats are scurrying from a sinking ship as Germany withdraws it's support for Israel in the ICJ genocide case. They have there own accusations to answer in relation to the widespread slaughter



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,628 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cddq7j48p35o

    VSWR, is this what you would have expected. Are does the extent of the damage surprise you?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,439 ✭✭✭brickster69


    As has been pointed out plenty of time already but good to hear it from someone directly involved. Rheinmettal CEO discussing the chronic shortage of missiles in the middle east and elsewhere. Due to the lack of industrial capacity in one month everything is gone.

    Less missiles are being launched but more are getting through now.

    Then what, when the big new stuff gets launched ?

    The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born: now is the time of monsters. — Antonio Gramsci



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 927 ✭✭✭bored65


    If only there was some European country offering help to the Gulf states to defend themselves cheaply and effectively at below costs it takes this axis of 💩 to produce drones and missiles

    having learned the hard way from 4+ years of defending themselves from swarms of Iranian drones and Russian colonialist invaders

    /S



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,423 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    While arsenals are being seriously depleted this is exactly what he wanted. It is him and people like him who pushed for this war precisely for that. To make a case of sending few hundred billions in contracts their way. This post is simple advertising.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,279 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    Correct, no point having a 'war industry' if you cannot deplete stocks and get lucrative contracts to replenish



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,054 ✭✭✭Ozymandius2011


    I think its not implausible that China is funneling supplies through Russia.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 927 ✭✭✭bored65


    Iranians reporting fresh attack on Natanz



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,172 ✭✭✭✭banie01


    The news of the attempted Iranian strike on Diego Garcia is far more important than many suppose.

    It's not just that Iran launched at a 4000km distant target.
    It's that usually, when the range of a Ballistic Missile is extended, it comes at the cost of Payload and/or Accuracy.

    Iran seems to have managed to avoid that issue insofar as they targeted a relatively small target at an extreme range.

    There is speculation that the launches took place shortly after Keir Starmer provided the US permission to use UK bases for "Defensive" strikes.
    Which coincidentally aligns with the rest of Europe confirming they would not be partaking in any offensive ops against Iran.

    My own, early thinking and very likely to change when/if new details come to light is this.
    The Iranians, even without hitting Diego Garcia, have sent explicit strategic messaging with the attempt.

    Much of Western Europe is within reach if they wish it.
    Don't fire at us, and we won't fire back.
    Even more importantly, very little of western Europe has anything approaching a reliable BMD capability.
    Allowing Iran to ensure a risk calculation has to be made by anyone who thinks joining this US/Israeli folly might be worth a gamble.

    Yes SAMP-T, IRIS-T and Patriot are operated by many NATO members, but as point defence for strategic targets and not as nationally interleaved BMD defence.
    Expect development and deployment of Sky shield to be much accelerated.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,691 ✭✭✭yagan


    Supplies of what though?

    One legacy of the Shah is that he did create his own military industrial complex with the help of US companies like Gruman who trained a whole generation of missile engineers. All around the GCC there's Iranian engineers!

    Those cheap drones are effective because they understood scalability.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 988 ✭✭✭vswr


    I'd imagine it's probably a lot more and this is only an estimate of what was able to be verified on satellite.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,172 ✭✭✭✭banie01


    I'm very much with you on this.
    Indeed even without up to date satellite imagery of the radar sites for BDA, the impact and extent of the damage to the US sensor networks in the Middle East can be gauged by the huge reduction in advance warning available in Israel.
    Warnings that previously gave 8 minutes plus, are now often less than a minute before intercept/impact.

    Incirlik is AFAIK the only intact long range radar left in the region with coverage of Iran for missile launch AEW.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 988 ✭✭✭vswr


    to caveat this… the satellite pics are of publicly known sites also… these weren't super secret bases.

    What is interesting is the Russian intel angle, and what has been destroyed that isn't fully publicly known.

    While still a massive loss, the amount of electronic surveillance moved into the area over the last 2 months (and still ongoing with 5 x Hawkeye's moved into the region recently).

    From a surveillance point, I don't think America's detection has reduced, but it does come at the cost of having continuous assets in the air.

    edit: there is also OTHR in Cyprus, which can be tied into US surveillance



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,172 ✭✭✭✭banie01


    If they can fly the E2's over Iran, then yes they won't suffer much loss of coverage but, they aren't over Iran, they are over Iraq, the Gulf and GCC states and giving 400km+ of air space coverage.
    That equates to about a minute for BMD and so far as I know, the ballistic phase of flight isn't detected by AWACS.
    Launch/Boost is if it's within range and terminal phase if it's below 120k feet.


    The E2's offer excellent Airspace surveillance for Drones, Cruise missiles and air breathing threats.
    They offer almost zero capability for BMD, and the impact of datalink delays on a kill chain maxed at 400km versus 1 minute cueing and intercept time?
    Offers no real advantage over the intact patriot, arrow and David's sling radars.


    The advantage the long range radars in the Gulf that have been destroyed offered, was reliable launch detection and early proximate cueing for the BMD interceptors.
    That data being shared over hard wired networks also kept datalink delays to a minimum.

    Add to that the retirement over the past few years of platforms like JSTARS and other dedicated battlefield surveillance and management platforms that have yet to be fully replaced.
    The rollout of more E2s is welcome, but it's a stopgap towards a capability that was not fully replaced as of yet by the US.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 988 ✭✭✭vswr


    Hawkeye's can fully integrate into the Aegis fire and control system. They are very much a BMD platform.

    I suspect datalink isn't an issue with numerous E-11's in the region doing regionalised backhaul, rather than relying on satellite.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,172 ✭✭✭✭banie01


    AEGIS is the BMD platform, Hawkeye is an additional spatial sensor that when orbiting on a patrol point above a CSG greatly increases it's volume search and sensor range.
    It doesn't however operate in a dedicated BMD role.
    It's primarily Air Space management and threat detection.
    It's GMTI and it's Radar will of course detect TEL movement and launch/Boost phase if within range but, while off board processing may well allow a degree of BMD tracking?
    It's still a 400km high fidelity track with at best a 650km indicative track.
    Versus the 3000km + range of the TPY2s and other radars that have been destroyed.
    The advantage offered by detecting the launch and boost phase of a ballistic missile, versus detecting it in its Ballistic phase offer huge advantage in cueing interceptors.

    The E2's are in no way an adequate replacement for the MEW radars knocked out by Iran and can't be unless and until they orbit within GMTI range of Iranian Launch areas.

    As for the E11 and other backhaul infill for the Datalink issue.
    It's desperately needed, if the reports regarding Kuwaiti F18C shoot down of the 3 F15Es are to be believed?
    Datalink delay and reliability issues are claimed to have contributed to the IFF failure that led to the missiles being released in that incident.
    Well, it's that or the KAF pilot decided to try and shift the scoreboard for Iran 😉

    Post edited by banie01 on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 927 ✭✭✭bored65


    Completely agree, Trump seems determined to destroy NATO because probably he is somehow influenced by Putin

    However I don’t agree with the far left anti NATO stance we have in this country or the completely deluded anti defence stance our president has either, or the ongoing delusions that our neutrality will be respected {literally proved wrong every day of this war} especially today that a missile that can hit Dublin which has zero defences was used

    If it wasn’t for NATO half of Europe be on fire under nightly Iranian drone barrages and Russian missile strikes and creeping colonisation and annexation Russian empire and their slave army



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 14,218 ✭✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    Israel bombing 3 countries now. Do they all have enriched uranium?

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth house?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 927 ✭✭✭bored65


    There was an interesting podcast section from Iran the latest with a missile expert from Norway, key takeaways;

    • noise about gulf anti missile stocks running low have no evidence
    • Iranians missile launches down 90% most likely due to severe shortage of launchers that are being swatted
    • There’s evidence of Israel running low on some interceptor types
    • Gulf states completely ignored long range drone threat
    • Us is not willing dig into reserves cause China
    • layered defence systems are key for Europe
    • No system is 100% reliable, missiles will get thru hence the importance on taking out launchers and expensive missile production industry



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,172 ✭✭✭✭banie01


    If you search my posts on this thread there is one from me in June 2025 as to why the economics of BMD were in Iran's favour.
    I also speculated at the time as to interceptor magazine depth (I may have done so again early in the current conflict).
    The usual exchange ratio for interceptor to incept is 2 interceptors to 1 target.
    There are reports from the current war that at least 1 interception in the Gulf resulted in 8 patriots being fired at a single target.
    At a minimum $3 million (but closer to $4.5million) per shot.

    The US being reluctant to dig into stocks implies that there is at least a viable war reserve of BMD capable missiles.
    I would argue, based upon what we know has been ordered across PAC-3, THAAD and SM3 and SM6 over the years, that no such reserve exists and that the burn rates of all US & Israeli interceptors since the Iran misadventure began?
    Has exhausted magazine depth and left the rest of the US allies, particularly in the far east grossly exposed.
    South Korea has lost THAAD, but it at least has a robust alternative to patriot in the KM-SAM.
    Japan uses AEGIS and has a a license to build patriots (30+ per year) but I don't know if they have a license for SM series missiles.

    The big winners of the missile profligacy in the ME?
    Is China, Taiwan is no more at risk than ever before and the US has shown itself to be a fickle and unreliable ally to all except Israel (So far, that may change when Trump TACOs).
    And if course Russia, in so far as it's likely no more Patriot will be supplied to Ukraine for the foreseeable future.

    Edit
    added link to my post on magazine depth & costs from June 2025.
    The issues I highlighted then, are only exacerbated now via the amount of interceptors fired in Israel & Gulf IMHO.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,279 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,146 ✭✭✭✭SuperBowserWorld


    edit ... no energy anymore for trying to understand how they get away it ...it's a madness

    Post edited by SuperBowserWorld on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,617 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    It's all they ever do. They are always "just one war away" from having peace and stability. We'll be reading in March 2050 how they have bombed three or four of their neighbouring countries so far this year.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 927 ✭✭✭bored65


    Well apparently attacks against neutral or non belligerent/aligned neighbours is all ok according to the wisdom so far /S

    failed attack on a refinery



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 988 ✭✭✭vswr


    Digressing a bit, I mentioned Hawkeye's as an example of EW stuff still going into the Middle East, they do have capability to integrate with Aegis, but more than likely they're being brought in to free up E-3's for Ballistic missile detection. It wouldn't surprise me if they had an E-3 over Iran.

    TPY's radar is microwave, so that 3,000 KM is line of sight, as it's used to track ballistic missiles from apogee to descent phase, for interception at terminal phase (hence the name THAAD). So with the curvature of the earth, E-2's/E-3's close to Iran would have more low level coverage than any of the TPY locations.

    AN/FPS-132 has OTH capability, which I imagine will be overtaken by Pluto in Cyprus for the foreseeable. I could see a mobile OTH radar setting up in Diego Garcia (US Navy have one).



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