https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/jun/13/israel-iran-strikes-defence-minister-tehran-middle-east-live
Reports stating that Israel have launched an attack against Iran
Attacking gulf states is the height of strategic stupidity, so far only the warmongers on the far left been clapping and cheering for that strategy, when everyone should be pushing and praying for a ceasefire and not burning of any off-ramps
If Iran continue to attack energy and desalination facilities in the gulf leaving those states in a position where the only conclusion left is that they have to eradicate the Iranian regime it ends in a prolonged war where they don’t win even with Russian or Chinese (who get most of their energy from the gulf btw) help
Don’t forget Saudis have a defence pact with with Pakistan that also has a massive military and 3x the population of Iran and would happily take funds to fight the Iranians
On a brighter note, moves to disarm Hamas and begin reconstruction in Gaza are gaining momentum.
Trump's Gaza plan, to which Israel and Hamas agreed in October, sees Israeli troops withdrawing from Gaza and reconstruction starting as Hamas lays down its weapons.
"It is now on the table. It requires one clear choice: full decommissioning by Hamas and every armed group, with no exceptions and no carve-outs. In this season of hope, may those responsible make the right choice for the Palestinian people,"
Unbelievably, if this were to happen, and the Israeli advance into Lebanon finishes off Hezbollah for and for all, all the Iranian proxies in the region would be eliminated.
If the mad mullahs despotic theocratic regime were also to fall, the entire middle east could be at peace within the year.
The Saudis do have a very modern military, they've spent a fortune on top end gear. Most of it reliant on western technicians and service contracts and all of it handled and operated exceptionally poorly when in action.
Indeed even among the Arabs, that wrought such Military incompetence as Iraq, Syria & Egypt, Saudi Arabia are the example of what not to do. There operational performance in Yemen, despite extensive Western training and advisors is used as a model of operational incompetence in military academies.
As for the intervention of MBS and the access afforded Israeli strike packages being a conspiracy theory? Well, that's entirely your prerogative.
The Iranians aren't IMO aiming to drag everyone in. They've been crystal clear in the wake of the June 12 day war that any nation affording bases, operational or technical support to US would be struck if the US struck them. Similarly with their threats regarding oil and gas infrastructure. If there's is struck, they will strike the GCC states infrastructure in retaliation.
It's not a strategy I agree with, not one I'd pursue were it down to me but, I can see why the Mullahs have decided it's their path to survival. If the world runs on petrochemicals, and you can choke the supply to the extent that you can cripple advanced economies? It makes refineries, extraction, distillation and shipping of same an extremely attractive target if the survival of your theocracy is threatened. I paraphrased Dune much earlier regarding that particular aspect. "He who can destroy a thing, controls a thing"
The Iranians will respond in kind to any attacks on their infrastructure to any GCC target they can hit. Where the fun will really start on that front IMHO? Is if the US try to force the strait, race 500km to Kharg whilst under Iranian fire control to land at Kharg?
I genuinely believe the Iranians will destroy Kharg along with every refinery, terminal and loading berth they can hit in the GCC, including having the Houthis strike the ones in the Red Sea.
Who wins then? Those trans Saudi pipeline's to Israel for onward Mediterranean shipping suddenly become a lot cheaper relative to rebuilding Gulf infrastructure.
US bombers are loading up and departing the UK every day for bombing runs on Iran
I imagine it's the type of munitions on board that they don't want them going through. They usually return via France. The B-52 mission yesterday went out to Iran over France and there is a load of F-35's currently en-route the Middle East, via France.
Are the US still bombing Iran or is it just Israel at this stage? Can Trump state that the US has won and take his players off the pitch? Israel would surely object to that?. Does the Straits of Hormuz remain closed indefinitely?
What a mess!!
I seen that but it all sounds like hearsay on conspiracy theories there is no evidence of concrete help like letting planes land and refuel for example at the start of the war
Now that they being repeatedly attacked they still haven’t retaliated either despite having a very capable modern military
I get it that Iran are trying to drag everyone into their war but it’s a stupid strategy that will isolate em further
And make no mistake I have no love for Saudis and their theocratic monarchy that beheads journalists but they have shown incredible restraint despite repeated attacks
https://www.thejournal.ie/middle-east-war-6991146-Mar2026/
Israel bombing nuclear facilities now , they won’t be happy until they set off a nuclear reaction and kill hundreds of thousands of people . Israel will blow up the planet and kill us all for a finish up .
Its widely reported that MBS was instrumental in pushing Trump towards this war. Saudi Arabia is also an integral part of the US logistics chain in the Gulf and further to that, Saudi has allowed Israel to overfly it on attack missions into Iran. None of which are the actions of a neutral. Standing idle, and not firing at your neighbour while actively supporting and enabling those who do? Are not the actions of a neutral nation.
Agreed, I'd expect to see both the mobile OTH and another AEGIS destroyer or 2 deployed to Diego Garcia.
The band of US equipment and capabilities is being stretched tighter & tighter and the production capacity across everything, Ships, Missiles, Radars and even aircraft just isn't there. Approx the last 100 F35s built have been delivered without radar as they await APG85 sets and the new TR4 software. What's absolutely mental regarding F35, is that the new APG85 radar, requires a different structural interface with the airframe and as such, the APG81 cannot be fitted as an interim radar until the new radars are available.
Mental engineering choice that is solely designed to milk customers who choose to refit to APG85 when that becomes available.
Before the war started they went out of their way to not be involved nor do they host terrorist groups that repeatedly attacked Iran
You have people defending attacks against innocents from one side of their mouth while complaining about another group doing same from other side of their mouth instead of doing the right thing of condemning both instead of cheering for their favourite deplorable team in this war
Just to be clear, are you claiming that Saudi Arabia is neutral in this conflict?
The most advanced air support isn't going to reopen the strait.
Iran still exports crude from its eastern ports beyond the strait.
We've gone from Trump calling Iran evil after murdering their head of state to lifting sanctions on Iranian oil in transit.
Bull slowly trying to reverse itself out of china shop.
Digressing a bit, I mentioned Hawkeye's as an example of EW stuff still going into the Middle East, they do have capability to integrate with Aegis, but more than likely they're being brought in to free up E-3's for Ballistic missile detection. It wouldn't surprise me if they had an E-3 over Iran.
TPY's radar is microwave, so that 3,000 KM is line of sight, as it's used to track ballistic missiles from apogee to descent phase, for interception at terminal phase (hence the name THAAD). So with the curvature of the earth, E-2's/E-3's close to Iran would have more low level coverage than any of the TPY locations.
AN/FPS-132 has OTH capability, which I imagine will be overtaken by Pluto in Cyprus for the foreseeable. I could see a mobile OTH radar setting up in Diego Garcia (US Navy have one).
Well apparently attacks against neutral or non belligerent/aligned neighbours is all ok according to the wisdom so far /S
failed attack on a refinery
It's all they ever do. They are always "just one war away" from having peace and stability. We'll be reading in March 2050 how they have bombed three or four of their neighbouring countries so far this year.
edit ... no energy anymore for trying to understand how they get away it ...it's a madness
No but they do all have children
If you search my posts on this thread there is one from me in June 2025 as to why the economics of BMD were in Iran's favour. I also speculated at the time as to interceptor magazine depth (I may have done so again early in the current conflict). The usual exchange ratio for interceptor to incept is 2 interceptors to 1 target. There are reports from the current war that at least 1 interception in the Gulf resulted in 8 patriots being fired at a single target. At a minimum $3 million (but closer to $4.5million) per shot.
The US being reluctant to dig into stocks implies that there is at least a viable war reserve of BMD capable missiles. I would argue, based upon what we know has been ordered across PAC-3, THAAD and SM3 and SM6 over the years, that no such reserve exists and that the burn rates of all US & Israeli interceptors since the Iran misadventure began? Has exhausted magazine depth and left the rest of the US allies, particularly in the far east grossly exposed. South Korea has lost THAAD, but it at least has a robust alternative to patriot in the KM-SAM. Japan uses AEGIS and has a a license to build patriots (30+ per year) but I don't know if they have a license for SM series missiles. The big winners of the missile profligacy in the ME? Is China, Taiwan is no more at risk than ever before and the US has shown itself to be a fickle and unreliable ally to all except Israel (So far, that may change when Trump TACOs). And if course Russia, in so far as it's likely no more Patriot will be supplied to Ukraine for the foreseeable future.
Edit added link to my post on magazine depth & costs from June 2025. The issues I highlighted then, are only exacerbated now via the amount of interceptors fired in Israel & Gulf IMHO.
There was an interesting podcast section from Iran the latest with a missile expert from Norway, key takeaways;
Israel bombing 3 countries now. Do they all have enriched uranium?
Completely agree, Trump seems determined to destroy NATO because probably he is somehow influenced by Putin
However I don’t agree with the far left anti NATO stance we have in this country or the completely deluded anti defence stance our president has either, or the ongoing delusions that our neutrality will be respected {literally proved wrong every day of this war} especially today that a missile that can hit Dublin which has zero defences was used
If it wasn’t for NATO half of Europe be on fire under nightly Iranian drone barrages and Russian missile strikes and creeping colonisation and annexation Russian empire and their slave army
AEGIS is the BMD platform, Hawkeye is an additional spatial sensor that when orbiting on a patrol point above a CSG greatly increases it's volume search and sensor range. It doesn't however operate in a dedicated BMD role. It's primarily Air Space management and threat detection. It's GMTI and it's Radar will of course detect TEL movement and launch/Boost phase if within range but, while off board processing may well allow a degree of BMD tracking? It's still a 400km high fidelity track with at best a 650km indicative track. Versus the 3000km + range of the TPY2s and other radars that have been destroyed. The advantage offered by detecting the launch and boost phase of a ballistic missile, versus detecting it in its Ballistic phase offer huge advantage in cueing interceptors.
The E2's are in no way an adequate replacement for the MEW radars knocked out by Iran and can't be unless and until they orbit within GMTI range of Iranian Launch areas.
As for the E11 and other backhaul infill for the Datalink issue. It's desperately needed, if the reports regarding Kuwaiti F18C shoot down of the 3 F15Es are to be believed? Datalink delay and reliability issues are claimed to have contributed to the IFF failure that led to the missiles being released in that incident. Well, it's that or the KAF pilot decided to try and shift the scoreboard for Iran 😉
Hawkeye's can fully integrate into the Aegis fire and control system. They are very much a BMD platform.
I suspect datalink isn't an issue with numerous E-11's in the region doing regionalised backhaul, rather than relying on satellite.
If they can fly the E2's over Iran, then yes they won't suffer much loss of coverage but, they aren't over Iran, they are over Iraq, the Gulf and GCC states and giving 400km+ of air space coverage. That equates to about a minute for BMD and so far as I know, the ballistic phase of flight isn't detected by AWACS. Launch/Boost is if it's within range and terminal phase if it's below 120k feet.
The E2's offer excellent Airspace surveillance for Drones, Cruise missiles and air breathing threats. They offer almost zero capability for BMD, and the impact of datalink delays on a kill chain maxed at 400km versus 1 minute cueing and intercept time? Offers no real advantage over the intact patriot, arrow and David's sling radars.
The advantage the long range radars in the Gulf that have been destroyed offered, was reliable launch detection and early proximate cueing for the BMD interceptors. That data being shared over hard wired networks also kept datalink delays to a minimum.
Add to that the retirement over the past few years of platforms like JSTARS and other dedicated battlefield surveillance and management platforms that have yet to be fully replaced. The rollout of more E2s is welcome, but it's a stopgap towards a capability that was not fully replaced as of yet by the US.
to caveat this… the satellite pics are of publicly known sites also… these weren't super secret bases.
What is interesting is the Russian intel angle, and what has been destroyed that isn't fully publicly known.
While still a massive loss, the amount of electronic surveillance moved into the area over the last 2 months (and still ongoing with 5 x Hawkeye's moved into the region recently).
From a surveillance point, I don't think America's detection has reduced, but it does come at the cost of having continuous assets in the air.
edit: there is also OTHR in Cyprus, which can be tied into US surveillance
I'm very much with you on this. Indeed even without up to date satellite imagery of the radar sites for BDA, the impact and extent of the damage to the US sensor networks in the Middle East can be gauged by the huge reduction in advance warning available in Israel. Warnings that previously gave 8 minutes plus, are now often less than a minute before intercept/impact.
Incirlik is AFAIK the only intact long range radar left in the region with coverage of Iran for missile launch AEW.
I'd imagine it's probably a lot more and this is only an estimate of what was able to be verified on satellite.
Supplies of what though?
One legacy of the Shah is that he did create his own military industrial complex with the help of US companies like Gruman who trained a whole generation of missile engineers. All around the GCC there's Iranian engineers!
Those cheap drones are effective because they understood scalability.
The news of the attempted Iranian strike on Diego Garcia is far more important than many suppose.
It's not just that Iran launched at a 4000km distant target. It's that usually, when the range of a Ballistic Missile is extended, it comes at the cost of Payload and/or Accuracy.
Iran seems to have managed to avoid that issue insofar as they targeted a relatively small target at an extreme range.
There is speculation that the launches took place shortly after Keir Starmer provided the US permission to use UK bases for "Defensive" strikes. Which coincidentally aligns with the rest of Europe confirming they would not be partaking in any offensive ops against Iran.
My own, early thinking and very likely to change when/if new details come to light is this. The Iranians, even without hitting Diego Garcia, have sent explicit strategic messaging with the attempt.
Much of Western Europe is within reach if they wish it. Don't fire at us, and we won't fire back. Even more importantly, very little of western Europe has anything approaching a reliable BMD capability. Allowing Iran to ensure a risk calculation has to be made by anyone who thinks joining this US/Israeli folly might be worth a gamble.
Yes SAMP-T, IRIS-T and Patriot are operated by many NATO members, but as point defence for strategic targets and not as nationally interleaved BMD defence. Expect development and deployment of Sky shield to be much accelerated.
