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US/Israel conduct airstrikes on Iran again

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Comments

  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 13,592 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    I mean, he has a point. But do the European leaders have even the ability to think strategically now?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,523 ✭✭✭✭smurfjed


    Its a very beautiful country, lines drawn by the French 100 years ago, Palestinian refugees, Jordan kicking out the PLO, Iranian money supporting Hezbollah, a disenchanted refugee population and Syrian overlords for a while are basically what brought the country to its present situation.

    The palestinians are living in refugee camps established in the 1940’s, so generations have grown up in these camps with no escape.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,530 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    Some people will blame Mars before they'll criticise Israel.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 255 ✭✭Tacitus Kilgore DCLXVI


    Of course not, they're dead brown people - just slightly above the level of dead black people.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 13,592 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Maybe Israel would do that, but why give them the pretext? I wonder if it's more of a case of justifying their existence to their domestic base?

    Political power can work in funny ways, as I'm sure you well know.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,053 ✭✭✭Ozymandius2011


    I think Lebanon was originally detached from Syria by France during the French mandate there, in order to create a Christian state in the Middle East. However the demographics have completed changed there. Christians are now only 30% of the population compared to about 40% in 1979. They were maybe 70% in the 1940s.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 978 ✭✭✭batman75


    Yair Netanyahu, Bibi's son, has "from the river to the sea the Israeli flag is all you see" on his X page. Yet if anyone here speaks similar sentiments in favour of Palestine you're labelled anti semitic. It's a joke. I do want a Palestine state from the river to the sea where Jews who reject Zionism are welcome to live alongside native Palestinians.

    Their are videos coming out indicating that law and order are starting to break down in Israel. Talk of food shortages as well with the possibility of a humanitarian crisis if this continues indefinitely. People cooped up in shelters for two weeks now. No sign of Bibi. Early unconfirmed reports of Hezbollah taking towns in northern Israel.

    Iran, apparently, has issued an evacuation order for parts of Tel Aviv warning they will be rendered uninhabitable after strikes. The US & Israel have been carpet bombing Iranian cities causing mass casualties. Iran, from what we can tell so far have attempted to strike civil and military infrastructure but there has been casualties. Iran also appears to be using ever more powerful missiles as the war goes on.

    If Bibi is toast who takes the reins? No sign of David Barnea, Mossad chief or Ben Ghvir either.

    If the 12 day war hadn't happened I could maybe understand Bibi taking on Iran, as daft as it seems. Jewish people tend to be extremely confident/arrogant when it comes to their own abilities and militarily they have lorded it over their neighbours. But the 12 day war caused significant damage to Israel and that was with the element of surprise in Israel's favour.

    They haven't had that this time and even with U.S. military involvement Israel doesn't have the upper hand. As well as the operational cost of the war it is costing the U.S. billions in lost infrastructure, loss of military prestige and permanent losses of bases across the middle east.

    IF Israel does implode into civil war it may prompt the Palestinian people to rise up against the settlers outside Israel's legally recognised borders. Talks of soldiers coming from Yemen to liberate Jerusalem. You have to think the lack of information is scaring the Israelis. One thing a settled society needs is certainty. Certainly of food supply, security and essential services. The Israeli authorities are endeavouring to control the information about what is going on inside the country. But all there doing is undermining public confidence which also could end up being undermined if they knew true reality. So it is damned if you do damned if you don't situation.

    It's surreal to watch events in the Middle East play out. As much as Bibi hollered about the threat to Israel from the evil arabs it turns out he was the greatest threat to it's very existence.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 255 ✭✭Tacitus Kilgore DCLXVI


    They don't need a pretext though, it's just another excuse to try to expand territory and kill Lebanese people. They've been doing it for decades.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,691 ✭✭✭yagan


    Many of the displaced in Lebanon come from the Galilee area that was cleared by Israeli terrorism.

    What's that word hitler used for breeding space?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 988 ✭✭✭vswr


    This is like my 5 year old when they get something wrong, so change the question so they get the answer they want.



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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 13,592 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Israel may not need the pretext, but it will sure utilise the actions of Hez for such. It gives them propaganda cover.

    So, my question still stands: what benefit to the Lebanese people do the military actions of Hezbollah provide?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 277 ✭✭goldsparkle


    Tariffs from the US is small fish in the sea. The biggest thing is this war escalating and the knock on effects of that. What we need is someone to bring stability.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 14,217 ✭✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    Where are you getting this information? I cannot for a moment think Israel is suffering food shortages. There is zero chance of civil war there. Or Hezbollah taking Israeli territory. The information vacuum is probably being filled by folks that haven't a clue.

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth house?



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,703 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    If you mean official uniformed soldiers of an internationally recognized country, who deliberately fired upon and killed Irish peacekeepers, Ireland.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,053 ✭✭✭Ozymandius2011


    Disappointing turnout from the perspective of the anti war marchers in the UK. My opinion is this reflects a number of factors:

    • Some Iranian exiles hope this war will bring regime change.
    • Most of the Muslims in the West are Sunni Muslims, whereas Iran is 90% Shia.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,623 ✭✭✭sock.rocker*


    I would take the reports of widespread damage to Israel with a pinch of salt. Every second video I see anywhere is actually from the past. The people are definitely spending plenty of time in bomb shelters, though, and Iran's attacks on radar installations etc. around the gulf is definitely causing a lot of missiles to get through.

    If America or Israel go more full on with Iran and they respond by bombing desalination plants and ports and stuff in Israel, then Israelis will for sure start to feel what life might feel like for a Gazan for a while. Israel containing information and Netanyahu's absence at the moment does suggest things are worse than usual there.

    We are definitely witnessing a major event in history. American waded in with the most powerful military in the world but it is too afraid to send in its navy and is calling for other nations to bring theirs instead. There is a lot of asymmetries of war coming up, with drones etc. being cheap offence while the defence against them is expensive and hard to find. There is also the asymmetry of America getting involved in actual serious conflict while not being able to shoulder any losses politically because their population doesn't feel any threat and it's all very far away.

    I think that with this misadventure destabilising the Middle East, America will have also destabilised Asia because now China and North Korea know that the US military is only interested in missions where they can set the terms and make big dramatic strikes that minimise losses. The future of war will be styrofoam drones with little electric engines that dispel no heat and are hard to shoot down, and the world has outsourced its military protection to a country that is led by complete imbeciles, asking for help from countries it only weeks ago was attacking economically.

    Whether or not the nuclear option comes up, who knows. Both Trump and Netanyahu, for all of their "democratic values", are the most likely people in the world right now to use them. For Israel, it could be last resort, for Trump, it could just be a complete disconnect from reality and a mad notion with no one to tell him otherwise and Hegseth egging him on because of his hatred of Muslims.

    I have no doubt that Iran has a lot left in the stockpile and their regime won't change. I fully expect that they have launch sites that have never been used and have not been attacked and are ready to go.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,202 ✭✭✭Ardillaun


    Apparently, Iran has prepared for decapitation strikes at multiple levels. Its Mosaic Doctrine incorporates lessons learned from Iraq, Afghanistan and Mao’s struggle against the Japanese. An earlier example of asymmetric warfare and the weapon of time against a stronger military adversary was the American Revolution itself.


    Gotta hand it to the Iranian FM. He is cool under pressure and has a dry style.

    Seyed Abbas Araghchi@araghchi We've had two decades to study defeats of the U.S. military to our immediate east and west. We've incorporated lessons accordingly. Bombings in our capital have no impact on our ability to conduct war. Decentralized Mosaic Defense enables us to decide when—and how—war will end.

    ”We’ve incorporated lessons accordingly.” A striking contrast to Hegseth’s undignified ravings.

    Post edited by Ardillaun on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 597 ✭✭✭myfreespirit


    Lebensraum.

    I've often thought that the Israeli government policies with regard to acquisition of land in the West Bank and Gaza, Syria and south Lebanon are frighteningly similar to the wartime German policy of 'Lebensraum'.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 5,785 ✭✭✭dmcdona


    You're missing nothing. And Lebanon now realises if they do not rid themselves of Hezbollah, this will be a periodic rinse and repeat event.

    Lebanon recently called for international help in removing Hezbollah.

    Of course, Lebanon could succeed in removing Hezbollah and Israel could still invade and annexe part or all of Lebanon anyway. It's not like they don't have form…



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 13,592 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    The point is that the tariffs from US are a leverage that Europe could use.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,691 ✭✭✭yagan


    I quoted a piece from the Financial Times yesterday where a former US general who'd been in charge of the US forces in the Gulf noted that Iran knew everything they needed about these US bases, "our very patterns" was the term he used.

    It's often overlooked that refugee displaced by Israeli terrorism settled in the gulf states and no doubt they and their following generations would have zero sympathy of the security of modern Israel. Some of them may actually work in these bases as sub contractors.

    Likewise Palestinians within Israel will also relay real time intel about high value targets. If Netaneyhu has been killed they may have tagged his location.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,202 ✭✭✭Ardillaun


    Any discussion with Trump should start with that. Take the tariffs away and then we’ll talk. However, if Carney does commit personnel to this war he’ll face a backlash.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,202 ✭✭✭Ardillaun


    The accusation that Trump is Netanyahu’s tool has moved from the fringes to become commonplace in America since this war started. It’s quite the change.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,623 ✭✭✭sock.rocker*


    Screw that. No way Europe should get involved for economic purposes. I really hope that doesn't happen.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,691 ✭✭✭yagan


    The more we in the EU become energy independent the less we're entangled with the middle east and the USA.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 255 ✭✭Tacitus Kilgore DCLXVI


    I can't answer that, I don't claim to speak for Hezbollah or the Lebanese people generally.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 554 ✭✭✭midlander12


    It's messy and complicated. Hezbollah are Shia and are the main representative of the Shia Muslim population, though they have (or used to have) some allies among the Sunni and even the Christian population. They formed part of the central government until a year or two ago. There are two main political tendencies, both with Christian and Muslim parties - one broadly favourable to Iran and the previous Assad regime in Syria, which includes Hezbollah, and the other seen as 'pro-Western', for want of a better description. The latter are now largely dominating the government, but central government is weak in Lebanon and always has been, particularly since the civil war of 1975-90. Hezbollah were supposed to be disarmed and withdrawn north of the Litani river under the last ceasefire agreement with Israel in 2024. That happened in part but clearly not in full. Hezbollah remains the most powerful party in the south, parts of Beirut and elsewhere.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,438 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Maybe not the best of times to contemplate that considering they are now the worlds largest exporter of Lng and largest producer of oil. No cards in that game.

    The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born: now is the time of monsters. — Antonio Gramsci



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,530 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,776 ✭✭✭.Donegal.


    Watch: Drone strikes US military base in Iraq

    https://news.sky.com/story/iran-latest-trump-tehran-israel-strikes-us-drone-live-sky-news-13509565?postid=11285860#liveblog-body

    Link above will take to video. Base seems unaware about the drone.



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