A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

FWIW, 2011-2014 is four years.

I would say that one should not get distracted by the noise. And the noise is the us government. They can be as incompetent as you like, and they are, and yet despite this, the us economic engine will continue to dominate the world. The large public companies that basically run the US are not so incompetent. The clown show , for the peasantry is not reality. The demise of the US has been talked about for 20 years, chinese gdp will not surpass them any time soon, I mean they still control their currency, there is no transparency there, their demographics are spiraling, their real estate is crumbling and global companies are divesting because they dont provide the legal business protections nor do investors trust the reporting of chinese listed stock. We can see this in the long term underperformance of chinese equity.

To marvel at infrastructure is nice but they will not be the place to do business anytime soon.

Donald trump could take a sh*t on his desk on live TV and it wont change the reality that the us will be the economic superpower for the next 20 years at least, as it has been.

Yagan was replying to my post directly above which stated 2011-2013.

Try to keep up.

How can anyone seriously compare the U.S. economy with China. China’s growth is now built on exports, a response to its property meltdown. selling goods abroad and it’s propping up subsidized companies and maintaining a weak yuan because its domestic market is weak. That model is unsustainable. For China to run massive surpluses, the rest of the world has to run deficits. Countries won’t tolerate that indefinitely, we see pushback in the U.S., and Europe will have to follow if it wants to survive economically. We see it everywhere, and we will be left with nothing. China has created huge imbalances in the global economy. Once Trump leaves, expect even greater coordination against Chinese trade practices, they dont play fair and their whole model is based on intervention. The U.S. still has capital markets, reserve currency, world leading tech firms etc etc. And A weaker dollar would actually help the U.S., but a deliberately weak yuan is a much bigger systemic risk but no one is allowed talk about that because America bad.

Yes, the imbalances were overwhelmingly driven by China. No other country comes close.If RCEP is the new centre of global trade gravity, then in theory China should be able to rely primarily on that bloc. But they still rely heavily on Western demand, particularly from the US and Europe to absorb its industrial output

China’s export growth over the past years, especially to developed markets, has outpaced overall global trade growth. As i said that means very large trade surpluses on China’s side with structural deficits elsewhere. For the west this is politically and economically unsustainable over the long term. And before anyone says it, this wasnt just competition, more so large scale state intervention, industrial subsidies, state-owned banks providing credit, targeted industrial policy, and driven down weak currency. These policies made Chinese manufacturing structurally more competitive than it otherwise would have been under fully market conditions, essentially unfair trade practices. years of discussion about rebalancing toward domestic consumption, yet its growth is still export led.

What still amazes me how everyone hates on the US all the time, yet China is the biggest problem by miles and miles for global trade. America dosent come even close. You only have to look at the Merz visit this week to China where the theme is fair competition...whilst they are getting absolutely wrecked economically by China.

@yagan

So yes, you are obsessed with turning a thread on global recession into a "China is better than America" propaganda thread.

They can be discussed in isolation they are not diametrically opposed.

The US administration is neither the cause of nor at fault for us economic performance, you can hate them all you like and I agree they are wretched but it won't destroy the US economically. It functions despite the government

Glue- a popular Australian store is closing its 16 branches- reason? Higher wage costs due to increases in minimum wages and reduction in consumer discretionary spending due to higher inflation
I can’t see Ireland being any different - I’ve greatly cut back on discretionary spending and I wouldn’t class myself as “poor”- but saving for the unforeseen and uncertain future is my priority right now.

They are- so again very similar to Ireland as a result - completely unsustainable

well most small Irish towns already have decimated main streets devoid of quality retail life- betting shops, takeaways, dubious barbers and vape shops pretty much sum up rural retail offerings - but considering many of those outlets are a front for money laundering, there’s even less legitimate retail than even this offering. UK is ahead of us slightly on this but unfortunately we’re catching up fast- and forget good restaurants taking over- more are closing than they are opening - all costs have gone too high to make any sort of living from it.

Online shopping has of course decimated retail for a long time now but many were still “surviving”- it’s just impossible to do even that now

Would be nice to be moving away from US dependence but this stuff is a real race to the bottom..

EV and solar the bigger winner from this war.

Short term yes, but driving more to alternatives will have a long term drag.

I'm just glad I topped up the heating oil in December and with rising temps less need of it now.

Definitely getting solar when the funds are replenished.

i think we ve managed to convince ours it has to be such as way, im not convinced, i think theres a serious lack of ambition and belief in ourselves, particularly with our policy makers, our reliance on fdi has done wonders for us, but its time to pivot