A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

the end has just be delayed, prepare yourself!

Our Govt does not hold US Govt bonds, sure they are in debt themselves.

The table shows holdings in Ireland, not by Govts.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/gov_10dd_edpt1__custom_20127431/default/table

Here is GG public debt in mn euro.

215 bn gross debt here.

Divide by 5.5m = just under €40,000 per person

excess private debt has caused far more serious and significant economic crisis, particularly in advanced economies, in the modern age, the obvious being 2008

Debt as a percent of gdp is not the same as per capita gdp.

To address the question, we've increased population and reduced debt so not as bad as 2023.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2023/02/03/irelands-public-debt-rises-to-one-of-highest-in-the-world-per-capita/

It gets worse

this is in their own state media, so reality is probably even worse

https://www.yicaiglobal.com/news/chinas-debt-ratio-tops-300-last-year-despite-slowing-growth-think-tank-says

“Launched in August 2016, Yicai Global is the English-language news service of Yicai Media Group, the financial news arm of Shanghai Media Group, which is one of China's largest state-owned media conglomerates.”

Thats not exactly true. They did it in three years! 2011-2013.

It sounds extreme, but to put that in context, the US populaton grew from roughly 75m to 280m in the 20th century.
Meanwhile China in early 21st century was urbanising hundreds of millions of people at once, so have the labour to build dozens of very large cities in a small amount of time.

Especially when their houses are apartment high rises, where as the majority of American houses bullt were timber framed.

Chinese cement production peaked around 2014 and has been steadily declining since 2021. Looking at the stats it still produces over half of the worlds cement. The last stats show in 2024 alone, China produced about 1.8 gigatons meaning that even in a "slow" year, they still use roughly 40% of the US 20th Centruy total every 12 months.

There’s 350 million cars in China replacing bicycles {no amount of greenwashing can spin that as a positive} and Chinese cities are very car centric, either go there or look on street view at any random city

Their own car industry is projecting this will double as half the households do not have a vehicle yet

Yes they have and yes US is incapable of building infrastructure due to these pesky things called laws, human rights and environmental impact statements

But please let’s not greenwash Chinas gigantic and growing carbon footprint on the same planet as us, undoing all our climate efforts in this country in a couple of days

Which is why the Chinese car industry is predicting car ownership will double from here taking more people off bikes and harming the environment further

Anyways China uses it’s concentration camp system for forced slave labour, but they call it re-education.

That’s a question to ask the Chinese? Who I may add are anything but “communist”

Their greenwashing narrative is clearly false as their own car sales figures and road construction figures drive a Geely SUV through the green spin

why are they increasing their car fleet by hundred million every few years {and are forgive the pun “on the road” to doubling it} when we are told there is excellent public transport and cycling is the future? Yes that’s a very good question, could it possibly be that we are being lied to

I fairness it seems like they were just highlighting that China is in for economic trouble and also that bicycle cycling is environmentally less impactful than driving an ev, which I think is irrefutable really.

You seemed to take umbridge with the US which they seemed to never mention(although I've only read the latest page). You were fighting a one man battle against America that no one cared about. Although it was ironic that you mentioned us prison labour when championing China , famous for ethnic cleansing and massive re education camps. But I digress, it felt like you were searching for an argument that no one was making.

Ethnic cleansing whereby minorities were allowed to have more children than Han chinese? Do you want to start another thread on this topic?

Can you discuss the benefits of diversified energy production in both Europe and China and acknowledge that the US's current policies on energy actually makes them more economically vulnerable?

Back on topic I can see the US being in a self induced recession while the rest of the world trucks on. This isn't a controversal viewpoint and pointing out the US economic regression in the global context is central to this discussion.

id have to agree with yagan in terms of economics, the us looks like its screwed, and china looks extremely strong, going forward

Thank you.

@joseywhales

Just looking at it from purely economics, which is the lens of this thread, it's hard to ignore the self inflicted damage the Trump tariff's are having on the US economy. The anti science regression there is truly astounding considering that's it's only twenty years ago George Bush Jr warned that a Covid like pandemic was the greatest threat to the nation.

It seems like entrenched radical individualism weaponised by social media has completely eroded all critical thinking in that society and everything has become about entitlement to greatness without earning it.

Acknowledging that doesn't make anyone pro China, and anyone acknowledging the longterm benefits of Chinese infrastructure isn't a shill for China.

China isn't immune to destructive populism either, the Taiping rebellion is estimated to have been more damaging domestically than the Great Leap Forward or the Cultural Revolution.

I understand and can appreciate the cultural ties people here have with the USA, I was an immigrant there too once, but stating the obvious isn't having an agenda. I am personally astounded by how short a time there is between Bush Jr issued his science based warning about pandemics and Trump talking about sticking UV lightbulbs up asses to fight Covid etc..

Mark Carney's proclamation about the post WWII economic order as we knew being now gone is in my opinion spot on, even if there's still reticence and reluctance in admitting that in Ireland.