Ireland Team Talk XII: Farrell's First Fifteen

I think it'll be Prendergast and that's probably who I would go with too.

Place-kicking is a massive issue tho, regardless of who we go with. Interestingly, when Prendergast started having a few wobbles off the tee last season, my impression was that it was a temporary blip and something that would be easier for him to address (as opposed to his tackling for example).

But it has been going on long enough for it to be a real concern now. And that goes for all 3.

This pops up every year, or whenever people aren't happy with Ireland's form. It's professional rugby, there is a huge amount of injury turnover every year. If you never changed the squad at all barring injury or retirement you'd still have a lot of turnover. And when you have a huge amount of injuries / niggles as we do now, it makes sense that you want to keep as much continuity as possible. There's already enough chaos.

Some people it seems would be happier if we played a 15 selected fromt he Ireland XV and lost 60-0 in Paris (Which btw would do nothign for the players 'development')

Osbourne - Still only ten caps, but probably the only player outside of the ones listed that will be up to speed by the time a RWC QF comes around.

If JOB can stay injury free and gets game time he could be there.

The issue people have is that these players getting time is by accident or injury not by design.

The biggest decision AF has made is EE over Hendon, and frankly hendo should not have made last years squad.

It’s become to complex for many since it became a three way race, so now people are waiting to see who starts against France and then blame them (when) if we lose and say they should never have been picked because of their kicking / defending / inexperience / hair colour / favourite TV show.

The base of the pyramid is to small in Ireland, the number of players contracted to the clubs we pick from - the base- is not big enough to ensure that the highest level of talent - (the top of the pyramid) has sufficient numbers to compete at the most prestigious competition in the sport.

Until that changes we have never and will never be able to close the gap and overtake those that are up there.

Let’s be honest with ourselves as Irish rugby supporters, the powers that be in Irish rugby don’t actually aspire to winning the greatest competition worth winning in the sport and are happy with Aviva matchday lunches and buying houses in Havelock square.

I had a look back at the players Andy Farrell has given a debut to who were 25 years or younger since coming into the role, and think there is a solid argument to make that he has a clear willingness to back young players who may not have a lot of provincial experience at that time.

Ireland have given debuts to 32 players under the age of 25 since Feb 2020 (when Farrell took over). The median age of this group on making their debut was 22 yrs 10 mths.

7 21-year olds made their debut in this window: Caelan Doris, Craig Casey, Ryan Baird, Joe McCarthy, Gus McCarthy, Sam Prendergast & Hugh Gavin).

10 players were 22 making their debut: Ronan Kelleher, Harry Byrne, Tom O'Toole, James Hume, Cian Prendergast, Jack Crowley, Tom Stewart, Jamie Osborne, Jack Boyle & Paddy McCarthy.

8 players were 23 making their debut: Max Deegan, Shane Daly, Gavin Coombes, Robert Baloucoune, Dan Sheehan, Mack Hansen, Michael Lowry & Cormac Izuchukwu.

7 players were 24 making their debut: Will Connors, Hugo Keenan, Paul Boyle, Tom Clarkson, Darragh Murray, Alex Kendellen & Ben Murphy.

12 players out of 32 had played less than 1,000 provincial minutes when making their debut (Will Connors just misses out on 1,001 mins). Paddy McCarthy is the lowest (at 275 mins), followed by Gus McCarthy (318 mins) and Ronan Kelleher (460 mins). Other guys <1,000 mins are: Hugh Gavin (555 mins), Dan Sheehan (566 mins), Joe McCarthy (633 mins), Jack Crowley (732 mins), Jack Boyle (756 mins), Sam Prendergast (759 mins), Craig Casey (859 mins), Ryan Baird (961 mins) and Cormac Izuchukwu (998 mins). As expected, average age for this cohort is young at 22 yrs 1 mth.

4 players had over 3,000 mins of provincial experience when making their debut: Alex Kendellen (3,622 mins), Michael Lowry (3,462 mins), Paul Boyle (3,388) and Jamie Osborne (3,187 mins). Average age for this cohort is 23 yrs 7 mths (Jamie Osborne an outlier, making his debut at just 22 yrs 7 mths, but already having 3,187 mins of experience).

Median number of starts for a player making their debut was 16, caps 28 and minutes 1,135.

If Edwin Edogbo makes his debut this month, he'll be almost bang in line with the average age (he'll be 23 yrs 1 month), and will join the cohort who made their debut with <1,000 mins (he's on 969 mins today).

Nathan Doak will be a big outlier - he'll be 24 yrs 1 mth or so, but he's already on 4,917 mins for Ulster (60 starts, 104 caps).

Caelan Doris is another name that really jumps out for attention - he was just 21 yrs 9 mths old making his debut (in Farrell's first game in Feb 2020), but had already amassed 1,677 mins for Leinster at that point (21 starts, 29 games).

The median number of total Irish caps for this group is 5. Most experienced are Caelan Doris (53 caps), then Hugo Keenan (46 caps), Ronan Kelleher (41 caps). 4 players have 1 solitary cap (Kendellen & Gavin from last summer, then Michael Lowry and Paul Boyle). 12 players have 10 or more caps, 20 have 9 or fewer.

An interesting, but maybe not unexpected stat is that of the cohort who went on to win 10 caps or more, the median provincial minutes at time of making their debut was just 910 mins, whereas for the group on 9 or less caps it jumps to 1,523 mins, and is a little higher again for the group on 5 or less caps - kind of implying the coaches didn't really fancy these players anyway.

This is since he took charge, but the point I've been making all along, at least, is that I felt - particularly Autumn last season - was that he was becoming increasingly more conservative.

That's borne out by your stats above, if we look at the year each of those 32 players got their debut:

2023 being the RWC year, but presumably we can expect similar in 2027.

And I've gone into detail previously about how it's not so much the number of debutants, as the number of minutes (or lack of) those debutants subsequently get. At least prior to the AI's, we were materially behind all other countries I looked at.

I think we've seen some improvements this set of AI's and in the 6 Nations squad (albeit it some of those coming through injury).

I still think there are some areas in the squad where it's vital we see some change / others getting more minutes.

I think it's indicative of a needs must approach too - long standing players move on and create a clear need.

• Hooker was a real concern post 2019 RWC (Rory Best & Sean Cronin moving on), then Kelleher and Sheehan emerged (Sheehan virtually from nowhere) and actually upgraded the position.
• LHP - we just didn't have options there really for a long time. Healy moving on has necessitated giving minutes early to Jack Boyle & Paddy McCarthy. I don't realistically think they could have been involved too much sooner than they were.
• Out Half - Prendergast & Crowley are on the list too of sub 1,000 mins guys - obviously due to Sexton moving on.

He got a really bad shoulder injury on his first game for Leinster A against Munster A in Oct or November 2024, and missed virtually the rest of that season. Missed the Irish U20s too because of this.

He's back back in the mix this season, but had fallen behind Andrew Sparrow a bit (same cohort from an Academy perspective). Great to see him making his debut now, he's still only 20 years old. I don't know how much earlier really you ever see THPs getting capped.