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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2025/2026 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST
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Clare (430ft asl)Join Date:Posts: 1914
Met Éireann's final sentence in its forecast is a fair refection of the medium to long range prospects i.e. 'signal'. The chances of a cold spell are heightened compared to normal.
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Clare (430ft asl)Join Date:Posts: 1914
The JMA 06Z run (extending to 132 hours) continues to favour a more southerly-tracking jet stream, with heights bridging from Greenland through Scandinavia. The GFS op run is fully zonal with cool to cold westerly winds. Awaiting the GEFS ensembles.
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Clare (430ft asl)Join Date:Posts: 1914
The 6z GEFS mean differs from the 0z with a stronger linkage of heights from Scandinavia through to Greenland.
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Clare (430ft asl)Join Date:Posts: 1914
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Well it looks certainly more seasonal weather out to the 1st Feb, a lot of cold weather from +120hrs ( and cold conditions in place up till then ) and it would seem that Ireland could be in that typical boundary area between Atlantic systems and cold airmass both from the NW /N and from the NE /E.
Both GFS and ECM I think showing it could get active coming in from the Atlantic giving wet /wintry conditions at times , maybe a few deep LP systems nearby with associated fronts coming up against cold airmass in place either from the NW/N or NE/E making it feel very cold in that damp cold airmass, and much scrutiny if it will be rain /sleet/ hail or snow or all 😁 ,certainly will need the heating over the coming weeks.
The dividing line of the Polar front would seem to be close to us and to the S of us at times and the Jet looks fired up too so could get a lot of weather at times perhaps. The trend I think is at least on the colder side , with very cold conditions from an Easterly component possible but certainly not definite ( maybe less than 30% perhaps IMO ) and maybe short lived if at all, if anything the models in general ( apart from Wolfe's JMA 😅 ) seem to be just keeping cold from the E at bay and that bit out of reach.
Might look something like this.
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And the GFS 12z looks like it is giving us the AI style slider….
EDIT:
Two days later and it's STILL all sliding, so a slower route to cold than if the flow nudged more straight easterly with a quicker slide. But, deep cold still marching west.
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Clare (430ft asl)Join Date:Posts: 1914
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The thing that I'm finding the most interesting in the models is not the lack of easterlies in the main model output or the raging easterlies in the AI models but the significant warming over North America with a potential split in the PV.
It's been showing this for several days now and if this was to verify, the second half of February could be very interesting.
If the current AI model output ends in a bust which it could easily do, we have the above for some hope for the final weeks of winter. If all else fails this is the last throw of the dice for winter.
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Gfs 18z,
Heights between Greenland and Iceland ✅
Trough over Europe and jet going south ✅
Cold flooding east met by the Atlantic, possible snow events ✅
It’s the Gfs 18z at day 9 ❌
The rollercoaster is only beginning, don’t get too attached to any outcome if you want to keep your sanity 😁
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The PV is getting destroyed on the 18z
Why is there no love for this on here, we would normally be climbing over each other in excitement to see a chart like this in any winter. Granted if this verifies and an effect takes place it would be in the second half of February but if we're still chasing the first snow flake of winter by then this might be the only thing that delivers so I'm keeping an eye on it.
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