FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2025/2026 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Gonzo

Mod Note:

This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onward for Winter 2025/2026.

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

Thanks

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When I opened the Autumn threads end of August I didn't think that I would get the chance to open the Winter Threads this year but thankfully boards is going to survive another year at least and hopefully alot more!

The opening 2 weeks of this winter are looking much like most Decembers we get in Ireland. It's going to be mild, sometimes very mild, wet and potentially windy. Low pressure to the north and west, high pressure to the south, winds in from the west. All so very familiar.

Temperatures over the next 2 weeks generally between 8 and 12C, with 13C or 14C possible at times.

We finish up with the same pattern, Atlantic driven, mild and often wet, on and on and on it goes up to the 16th of December with not a sniff of cold in sight.

A thoroughly wet ensemble graph from the GFS from start ot finish, another deluge season is upon us. Will the mild hold on for the rest of winter or will we start to see signs of something colder as we get closer to Christmas? Time will tell.

Elmer Blooker

my first contribution to this thread might as well be a fairly decent looking chart. HP from the Urals to Greenland, not a strong enough block to influence our weather but it’s a start isn’t it?

almostthere12

After the last week of every model going zonal all the way out in fi it is good to see blocking starting to build. This was expected from mid month on with the MJO in phase 7 but of course the reflective ssw might have scuppered that.

I think there could be some interesting model watching over the next couple of weeks, whether we actually get anything seasonal coming up to Christmas is another question!

WolfeEire

beyond anything else, I hope this winter thread finally delivers for Gonzo and snow starved east Meath.

Some interesting noise emanating from the far echelons of model runs this evening. It's like being based at a military listening post and hearing an uptick in enemy chatter. I'm looking towards North America for blocking signs. Models suggesting a breakdown of the persistent high there which would help reduce the energy being pumped into the jet stream. We need the latter to happen to have a realistic chance of a negative NAO.

ascophyllum

Just in time for the holidays

Gonzo

hopefully one by one the cold outliers grow. Honestly we all need a break from the Atlantic pigmuck and something festive for a change.

almostthere12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124033137#Comment_124033137

A frosty Christmas morning would do for a change!!

My concern is that the block will be there but it is just not strong enough to hold off the Atlantic. However, and again these are very early signs so it could all come to nothing, potentially the polar lobe over Canada will start draining away which could take the power out of the Atlantic as we come up to mid-December.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124033254#Comment_124033254

If the CFS is correct this is exactly what will happen. It shows the AO going strongly negative from around Christmas and stays like that for most of the rest of winter while the NAO is mostly neutral or positive which suggests plenty of blocking this winter but not in a situation that benefits us. We shall see but all we need is a few days of a proper cold and snowy period to call this winter a success. The Benchmark for a successful winter is at an all time low particularly here in the Snow Shield center of North Leinster!

highdef

The snow extent anomaly for North America has recovered well in the past week however for Eurasia, it is by far the greatest negative anomaly in the past 20 years.

North America:

Eurasia:

WolfeEire

There is a small increase in colder members in this morning's GEFS ensembles. The signal for high pressure is a little stronger, and there are signs the Atlantic flow may begin to slow as we move into the middle of December. A wet and, at times, windy two weeks in the interim.

ClimateObserver

Regarding the SSW, came across this chart on X:

and the subsequent commentary:

I'd expect the models to be all over the place for the next couple of weeks or so as they try to come to terms with what effects arise from this SSW (partial or otherwise).

ClimateObserver

Just copped this from @WolfeEire in the Autumn FI thread at the close:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qA5o8RNmeCs

That is brilliant!!! 😂

Gonzo

Charts are getting even more mild and wetter, this has to be up there with one of the worst starts to winter ever for model watching.

Close to 190mm of rain in some western areas up to the next 2 weeks and generally over 100mm almost nationwide. If this verifies there's going to be some serious flooding, land is past saturation point already. The disgusting weather pattern since the 3th week of August continues on and on and on and on.

adocholiday

It's even worse this evening Gonzo. ECM going for nearly 250mm in Kerry over the next 17 days. GFS showing lower totals but not much better.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124037382#Comment_124037382

The model output at the moment is perhaps the worst I've ever seen for the first half of December, thoroughly wet, windy often very mild with no end in sight up to 17th December which is as far as we can see without taking a look at the more unreliable long term models. In my opinion it's going to stay mild right up to Christmas at the very least, there's barely a crumb in the models suggesting cold any time soon. The possibility of a cold spell around Christmas usually starts to show signs around this time in the run up to Christmas but at the moment we have such a long way to go, not a single one properly cold outlier to be sniffed out. The Atlantic is on abolute steriods right now and it's going to take alot to put it to sleep with any cold bottled up at the pole. This can't go on all winter so I'm hoping for a huge pattern change around Christmas.

esposito

Ah here can it get anymore depressing like?

I hope you will be posting updates when the better charts appear too.

We need a huge slice of luck this winter. And I really hope it is THIS winter because I’m getting sick and tired of this rubbish every year. Just one episode of proper wintry weather for a week on the snow starved east coast is all most of us are asking for. If it happens in February so be it. At least it’s still in meteorological winter.
Time for me to take a break from the model watching and maybe even boards for a few weeks.

Dazler97

Met Eireann pressure sequence showing a storm near us on Tuesday of next week but obviously too far ahead to set in stone ,I wonder if anyone has noticed it being gusty to stormy on models ?

almostthere12

The charts are still looking terrible into the foreseeable so no point in putting them up unless it is rain you are chasing. There were tentative signs of blocking showing but that has not progressed. I am still hopeful that we see plenty of blocking appearing in charts for Christmas week, of course that doesn't mean it will happen in reality……….it is the hope that kills you!

Gonzo

last frame of the just completed GFS 6z.

I may take the next 2 weeks off from model watching just seen the same charts everyday. A classic blowtorch December.

WolfeEire

Perturbation 18 said "screw you" to the rest of the members and goes for a screaming north-easterly in 7-8 days.

Ros4Sam24

The sea level pressure chart paints a grim picture with my attention drawn to a potential storm next Thursday picked up by a number of ensemble members