Charts ( up to T120) Winter 2025/2026 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Watching models closely from coast near kinsale. Though general concensus seems to be rain for the coast.

Arome is looking very good

Jma also going for the heaviest ppn off the South Coast (As in torrential)

Yep Arome's precip type chart is not good away from the highest peaks. Mostly rain and sleet all the way. I think there will be some temporary cover in some low lying areas well inland, but it will be wet slush at best.

GFS sounding 1500hrs for Tipperary supports snow, with a small caveat about how well it sticks.

Here’s why:

The red line is temperature and it stays below 0 °C through essentially the entire column from cloud level down to very near the surface. That means no melting layer aloft, so precipitation will fall as snow crystals rather than rain that refreezes.

There is no warm nose above freezing anywhere in the mid-levels, so sleet/freezing rain are not suggested.

Near the surface the temperature is around 0–2 °C (tcon ≈ 2 °C). That’s marginal, but still cold enough that snow can:

fall as snowflakes

possibly be wet/slushy at ground level

With the LCL/CCL ~170–184 m, saturation occurs very low, supporting low cloud bases and precipitation reaching the ground.

What this means at the ground

Snow is likely to fall as snowflakes

If the surface temperature is 1–2 °C, it may:

accumulate on grass/elevated surfaces

struggle on warm roads/pavement

If wet-bulb temperature is near 0 °C, dynamic cooling could drop surface temps enough for sticking snow

What would change:

If a shallow layer >0 °C developed near the surface → wet snow or rain

Strong ground warmth before onset → melting on contact

This could be one of them Ninja's across some parts of south midlands tomorrow

I actually think Friday morning snow chances are better than tomorrow. Less marginal very early like 6am in Southwest. Thickness is better and uppers are lower

ITV main evening weather going rain completely and Cork at a balmy 6 DegC

Looks to be a bit of a shift North alright. That would mean the warmer sector moves in more over the south (rain) but the eastern flank of the storm pulls in the colder air along Wicklow and Wexford (snow). This Storm just bombs in 12hrs from tomorrow morning. Amazing mother nature.

Yes and I see similar characteristics to January last year, the low is exiting the jet stream out of the Atlantic South West of Ireland, a northward wobble would be more likely

Significant downgrades this evening across all 18z runs. Unfortunately it's a non event with the gfs really the only model going for it. Ironically the longer term Easterly/ Scandi High has also vanished from the runs. Next...