Charts ( up to T120) Winter 2025/2026 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Met Eireann warning

Latest GFS for tomorrow afternoon.

Tomorrow's evening commute could be fun

Latest ICON has the system barely clipping the South coast. A while to go yet before this is nailed down.

Don't forget that GFS is a very low resolution model. It doesn't take into account elevation details in the way that higher resolution models do. Lying snow will be restricted to higher ground, my guess would be a minimum of 250/300m. I would estimate that significant lying snow (not a slushy mess that is melting almost as quickly as it is falling) will occur above about 400m. That's based on the info to hand at the time of writing.

I'd say that wet snow will occur down to about 150/200m at times, the further from a windward coast, the better. And sleet or a rain/snow mix down to about 100m, possibly lower in some heavier bursts.

It will head further north than ICON and UKMO projections, based on past experiences

Moving further north would mean heavier rain which could help turn it to snow but yes more likely on higher ground. Will be a nowcast tomorrow anyway.

Yes more likely cold rain, high ground wet snow for county Limerick, northern Cork, Tip, Laois, northern Carlow, northern Kilkenny, southern Kildare. Basically a repeat of the 5th Jan 2025

The High Res models are split. WRF, UKMO and ICON show no snow. Harmonie and Arome show some decent snow to coast level as the system exists late tomorrow afternoon.

Lastly, while I usually ignore the GFS v High Res models, it was far better for the track of last Sundays southern precipitation than all of them.

Galway Beo with their usual clickbait crap 🤣🤣🤣

Harmonie is very poor and only has snow over the higher ground areas and mountains of Munster and south Leinster. Gfs runs at a much lower resolution so it's going to show a wider snow risk but this is mainly going to be a higher ground event.

What sort of wind is this expected to bring with it?

Can we on the S/SE coast expect a battering, or is it more a precipitation event?

The harmonie usually underestimates ppn. Considering this the Cork area really does look at risk of heavy snow! People forget eventhough it's a hills event Cork is basically built on hills, more the Northside.