Dublin Airport New Runway/Infrastructure.

So the airport next summer will be absolutely rammed. If they do 36.5m this year they'll easily do 38 million next year. No doubt on more US and European frequencies and no new markets. At what point are daa going to start having issues with the amount of passengers?

LMFAO, the irony. Maybe you should re-read my post(s), because nowhere did my point reference IAA or ACL.

“Peak” from a capacity point of view has nothing to do with the length of summer period for slot aggregation. It’s based on the actual peak demand. April might have same limits as August, it’s hasn’t the same demand.

The fact is the infrastructure in and around the airport has a physical limit. Ignoring it until the last minute is exactly how DAA got into this mess.

ok, I don’t think you are getting my points as there’s no irony here.

I referenced the DAA capacity report. You responded with links to something else entirely (IAA slots)
You are mixing up two different things, that's ok. But it's very ironic to try to swipe with "you don’t seem to understand", when you've in fact, not understood.

The first link in my post above brings you to the IAA’s website where their decisions for previous seasons are listed. Summer 2026 is here too. They explain how they made those decisions and what was taken into account which answers this “Would be interesting to compare those to the apparent hourly limits for security, gates, checkin etc.” and this “Every airport has lots of hypothetical capacity.”

I wasn't talking about IAA slots, so how they make decision was not relevant to what I said.

But as you mentioned them, I said it would be interesting to compare them, to the apparent infrastructure hourly limits in the capacity report. Comparing means looking at both, not one only.

Based on the parameters set, the Airport Coordination Limited (ACL). Will then issue slots to airlines. Airlines can’t land or take off at Dublin without having a slot. A slot won’t be issued if it exceeds the parameters set by the IAA.

That's true. But the IAA method to allocate slots and IATA methods to determine capacity are not the same parameters.
That's the point, and that's been explained before I'm sure.

Airlines will apply for slots based on what they expect to operate, taking into account peaks and quieter periods. Even quieter days. Far more slots are requested and issued for a Sunday than a Wednesday. For example aircraft type C there are 5,197 movements for the first week in April 2026 compared with 5,520 for the last week in August. Code E has 453 vs 496 for the same periods respectively and that answers this “Peak from a capacity point of view has nothing to do with the length of summer period for slot aggregation. It’s based on the actual peak demand. April might have same limits as August, it’s hasn’t the same demand”

That perfectly highlights why conflating slots with passengers is a mistake.

Type C number quote above for April is 6% lower than the August number.
The actual August passengers were 3.8m, April was 3.1m, or 19% lower.

The drop off in demand is occurs much more readily in real passenger numbers than allocated slots/flights. That should be obvious when you fly, planes are less full in quiet parts of the year. It's not pro-rata to slots.

The start of season report for Winter 2025 issued a few weeks ago. 97,000 movements and 17,110,000 seats were cleared ok for the period based on available infrastructure at Dublin. Combined with the Initial Coordination Report for summer 2026, 183,000 movements and 32,387,105 seats, gives you the “hypothetical capacity “ At Dublin for the next 12 months = 49,497,105.

Which also highlights that slots are not based on actual real world limits. 32m in the 30 week summer season is 150-160k a day. Which is a massive jump over Dublin busiest day ever. The current airport simply wouldn't handle that capacity.
(As an aside, can you like to where the 32m and 17m numbers are stated. I couldn't see them in the reports you linked to, only hourly).

As I keep saying, the IAA issuing of slots is totally different scenario to the actual functional capacity of the airport. They are doing their own thing. When DAA needed to determine the airport capacity, they do not quote to the IAA slots numbers. THey complied a report, based on IATA methodology.

Now, obviously not every flight over the next 12 months will be full, or even close to it, so if we take an average load factor of 80% it would mean there should be around 39m passengers in the next 12 months. Again, this accounts for a quieter April compared to a busy August and so on.

Again, the actual drop in passenger numbers in April is 3 times as much as the drop is slot seats.
So no, the slots no not account for it. You've just proven that slots are another metric entirely.
Not to mentioned all the other factors outside of IAA remit that affect the functional capacity of the airport.

Probably for the best. As pointed out, you're talking about something else. That's based on a different, narrower set of parameters.

Ironic to call me a "teenager", when you're posting childish nonsense like that.
I'd agree, if someone was posting/trolling with acronyms. But given I gave a honest reply reference reports, industry metric etc, that's a bit pathetic comment.
Not much of a counter argument. I'd have expected better, given your extensive real life experience.

@dublin12367 appreciated the link to IAA data. But simply wasn't what I was referring to above. There are other factors in the development of terminal upgrades.
Was genuinely asking where the 32m/17m numbers were published. Couldn't see them, and it's a huge jump. Security update is hardly that significant.

I don't think I ever made any claims about passenger trends. I've repeated referenced the DAA capacity report, which is nothing to do with ACL. The fact you still not conflating the two proves my point.

I've made no claims about ACL. TBH, I don't get excited about airline allocation, ATMs, plane classes etc. I know some plane-spotters love that stuff. I have zero interest in that aspect. Could not care less about how to find ACL reports.

I attached a link for the summer 2026 report in one of my earlier posts!

This was the link you shared above that I checked. https://www.iaa.ie/commercial-aviation/economic-regulation/slot-allocation/documents---slots
The there was no Passenger ATM Seat quoted in the S26 report. Hence the question.

I checked the 2025 report verse the DAA capacity report (as they were published the same year).

That's pretty closely aligned. And highlights how close the 2025 numbers are to then estimated capacity in the report.
The 15% jump in to 2026 numbers (that you quoted above) is down to relaxation of liquid and gel requirements.
I think is wildly optimistic to think that the removing liquid and gel requirements, will mean 15% more passengers will fly in/out of Dublin.

Plus security throughput is not the only limit. Number of Gates, and Parking stands as both impact Peak Day Total Passengers and equates to a ~37m annually. Average day is about 80% of Peak day.
That's the point behaviour part that's not captured in PATM seat counts. 49m seats on planes doesn't equate to 49m passengers. The ACL allowance are much flatter than actual demand.

Post infrastructure application, the Peak day is more like 160k.

If you could counter anything I said there, I'm sure you would.
Your own data and some basic maths = too hard bucket. Say it all.

I think with the potential legal cases to work through don't bet on the cap being lifted fully in 2026, I feel the bigger issue is the lack of progress on the additional pier/terminal spaces getting approval. If the passenger figures keep climbing as forecasted by the end of this year Dublin will be full with the present facilities. Any new capacity will take a couple of years to filter through….

Anyone know if the DAA submitted the required info for the planning application to be fully reviewed by FCC?

https://www.thejournal.ie/dublin-airport-passenger-cap-3-6911376-Dec2025/

Fingal aren’t in any panic anyway according to the minister! (Infrastructure application, first lodged Dec2023)

AFAIK Daa sent requested info to Fingal CC early this year and they were to send requested info to ANCA last month. The “relevant action” delays led to the delay in responding to ANCA.

“The minister said he has been informed that will not be completed until Quarter 1 2027. “I’d like to see that decision be made sooner. I really would like Fingal to to deal with that sooner than that,” he said. “

The saga is slowly moving forward I think even with the civil servants trying their best to stop or slow the process down. Lets hope Darragh O'Brien sticks to his guns and removes the cap completely, see below from the media today.

Proposals by Minister for Transport Darragh O’Brien to scrap completely the passenger cap at Dublin Airport have met strong resistance from senior civil servants, he has said.

However, in an interview with The Irish Times, Mr O’Brien has said he does not believe a cap should be imposed on passenger numbers in the airport at all, as he believes the limit to be “arbitrary”.

He added that he wants planning decisions relating to national infrastructure such as Dublin Airport to be taken out of the hands of a local authority and vested in the Minister for Transport of the day. While he has praised the professionalism of Fingal County Council, he has argued it is not appropriate for it to be making decisions relating to a vital strategic asset.

However, he has disclosed that his plans have met “quite a resistance in some areas within the system”, specifically with opposition being expressed in some quarters to the removal of the cap. Mr O’Brien said he is content to allow the active planning application to lift the cap to 40 million to run its course with Fingal County Council. In parallel, his proposed legislation, if enacted, would remove all caps on passenger numbers. The likelihood is the legislation will become law before the planning decision is made.

Mr O’Brien has argued that removing the cap will not mean unfettered growth. He has contended that growth will take place over time and that any changes will be subject to conditions relating to considerations such as environment and noise, and will be done on the “good neighbour” principle with local residents.

However, imposing a new cap would not be rational, he has said, as it would mean that new applications would have to be filed every few years.

“The State didn’t invest significant amounts in Terminal 2 and in the second parallel runway for them to be underutilised,” he said.

“The idea that as a Government we would be coming back every couple of years and looking to set a cap or leaving it to a planning authority to make a decision that’s outside of the control of Government, I don’t think it’s a sustainable way forward.”

He continued. “It’s not about uninhibited growth in the sense, but it’s about removing a false ceiling that’s there and allowing growth that’s sustainable in the airport.”

It is understood there have been difficult exchanges over Mr O’Brien’s plans in recent weeks.

However, he said he is confident that he can proceed with the legislation and will meet Attorney General Rossa Fanning early in the new year to discuss how best to move forward with the general scheme.

Power, influence, pride, money, authority... i could keep going. None of which helps this remote western isle to progress.

It's handy to be able to blame the civil servants when the ultimate decision might be very unpopular with your voters. He also says the government invested in the new runway, they didn't, it was/is being paid for by the daa as they are self-funding.

Did you get a book of "Handy Stereotypes for Every Situation" for Christmas?