Friday Jan 2nd onward, very cold with snow potential: Event buildup/discussion

We have adequate threads to deal with low probability potentials, like the general winter thread.

This is ridiculous and premature in the extreme. And it is overly speculative.

Connacht

As Meteorite has said, when there is such potential even a bust of a thread is justified simply to record the evolution of same. The OP makes clear the risks / probabilities. Life is short, enjoy these chances to post on possible snow, however unlikely for some areas!

This cold new year has been on the models a long time now so at worst 2 or 3 days with sleet and snow in them at best a 9 day session of snow but more likely in between with some areas seeing snow and others mainly South getting little until maybe the battlefield breakdown takes place near or before mid January.

I'm gonna order the sledges now!

Can we not behave like adults here guys and if you don’t like the thread then keep scrolling?? This is a thread for people to discuss the charts and the possible potential!!

We await further runs but not much point in mentioning 2010 at this moment.

It looks largely dry with any snow potential as it stands largely confined to northern areas.

Lets see what the charts show over the coming days but currently for the majority its cold, frosty and ice, a normal winter cold snap

I’ve followed the winter and cold-weather threads here for years, even if I haven’t posted. Credit where it’s due, the regular contributors and they know who they are consistently put real effort into analysing charts, explaining signals, and keeping these threads informative, especially in uncertain setups like this. Thanks for that.
Healthy scepticism is always part of weather discussion, but debating whether a thread should exist is largely beside the point. The purpose here is to track potential developments as they emerge, not to call the outcome days in advance. Those not interested can simply scroll on many of us are here to follow and learn from the evolution.

Bingo.

Bit of snow snobbery towards anything from the north or north west from some in the east. "Muck" its often called, yet winter after winter its the only source of snow for much of the island.

We've had several easterlies since 2018 and they've all been piss poor - snizzle or cold rain galore. We're really in no place to be turning our nose up at snowfall.

Looking forward to tracking this. GFS remains best for a more pronounced swap to NE winds to drag more of the island (by population) into the potential. I know some are hoping for magical blocks to our N or NW that last for 10 days but that simply isn't realistic. The modern winter needs to make use of the 3-5 days you can get out of a retrogressing high + it's equally quick collapse or waning - and within that waning, hope that the cold stays in situ and you get the goods without particularly nice overall synoptics. Still hope of some rebuilding down the line, but those hoping the building Greenland high magically stays put with the same strength for 7 days, look away.

GFS tonight, just picked a snow chart (JFF) cumulative by the 5th Jan.

Just my two pence on the latest "why a thread!". Have people ever actually went back all the way to the early 2000's on the forum? Thread after thread about sleet potential. The forum has NEVER operated on a basis that threads are only made for the most severe weather - people pushing this are just telling porkies. Personally, the sectioning off of any deviation from the mean weather-wise has created an absolutely unbelievable archive of weather charts, images and personal stories on here. Even if 50% of threads amass to nothing after the buildup and "watching brief" portion…in the politest way possible - if this triggers you, get a holy grip of yourself. Like it really doesn't matter in the grand scheme of life.

Anyway, enough on that topic, it's been done to death today already, so apologies for further adding to the pile

Onto the morning runs and hopefully lots more snow depth charts to fool ourself with.

ECM 18z AI. A good illustration that you can lose the blocking in terms of ideal positioning and strength, but lock in the cold nonetheless and get further snow chances. I know our JS is very worried on Netweather re: the blocking, and while the concern is valid, it's not a guaranteed spell-ender. The waxing-waning of blocking is something the teleconnections folks on Netweather have been suggesting in recent days as something possible.