Friday Jan 2nd onward, very cold with snow potential: Event buildup/discussion

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124102886#Comment_124102886

Its time to call it!! The trend is obvious across all suites. The UK might salvage something but for Ireland it's a couple of frosty night's. I'm trying to be positive, but time is up!!

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124102870#Comment_124102870

JS…please stop misinforming people. A mean showing -8c uppers covering Ireland at lunchtime on Saturday is exceptionally rare. The depth of cold in the 18z mean is greater than that shown in the 12z mean.

Widdensushi

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124102537#Comment_124102537

I love how you can open a thread a week out when you find a model that suits and a couple of pages in say disregard models a week out,, not criticism btw ,I like your posting etc, just pointing out Cherry picking.

TheMilkyPirate

Plenty of people will see snow. Longevity isn't there but long snowy cold spells are rare as hens teeth here people should be delighted it's going to snow at all.

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124102903#Comment_124102903

Erm, this time last night the cutting off of the cold flow was Wednesday. This morning it was Tuesday, now it's Sunday. I'm afraid these are the facts and I'm not misinforming anyone. Your cherry picking a snap shot chart that lasts 12 hours. YES Saturday is cold with minus 8 uppers. How long does it last???

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124102924#Comment_124102924

I am not speaking of longevity. I am responding to your comment that the 'whole event is under question". Your posts are ott and not in keeping with the friendly, good spirited and generally well informed nature of this forum.

Ros4Sam24

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124102924#Comment_124102924

A week away but whatever, still a cold mean Js 👍

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124102911#Comment_124102911

I haven't cherry picked. If you read the OP you'll find the forecast hasn't changed one iota. It's still the same. That reflects the models as of tonight.

If some want to focus on next week and their own backyards more power to them. Perfectly fine to speculate and see how things pan out. If you're going to that the ups and downs are part of the gig. There's no mystic megs here.

Perfectly comfortable with the thread and the various forecasts and posters are engaging that ordinarily may not. It's justified because some may see disruption and why would we ignore them.

CrazyEric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124100716#Comment_124100716

I hear Malaga is nice…..

John.Icy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124102644#Comment_124102644

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124102870#Comment_124102870

Flippin' hell JS. I actually snorted catching up on the thread. You lasted two bleedin' hours. 🤣🤣🤣

Never change.

Disappointing shifts East today for sure. We need the ridge to sink south rather than south east as per previous runs but GFS led the way on this signal change today, after all the slagging I gave it last week, it chose now to sniff something out! Lots of time for it to swing back however, so no medals yet.

That's in relation to squeezing out another 1-3 days from bout one anyway. Still some lovely charts prior to that, albeit increasingly brief.

Onto tomorrow.

Rougies

In 1973, healthy volunteers faked hallucinations to enter mental hospitals. Once inside, they acted normal, but doctors refused to let them leave. Normal behaviors like writing were diagnosed as "symptoms." The only people who realized they were sane were the actual patients.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rosenhan_experiment

It's a fine line lads and lassies and I'm not sure where I fall. It will get much colder and there will be snow on high ground in the north of the country. Other than that it's down to unforecastable (for now) fine details and potential upgrades, but I doubt anything significant for most. Looking forward to to some nice sunny clear crisp days and frosty nights myself. A few flurries here and there would be a bonus for sure.

Widdensushi

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124102941#Comment_124102941

Your op is excellent,a work of art,,I just found your more recent post to disregard forecasts a week out a bit ironic, within the same thread you opened,,I ain't looking for a fight, you will win, thanks for your very good posts

MJohnston

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124102901#Comment_124102901

JanuarySnowstor

Jma 18z

12z

Everything further East

WolfeEire

Mean carries cold spell on through Wednesday and a shade colder overall than the 12z run. A very mild outlier of an op run from Monday. Let's see what the overnight runs throw up by way of possible precip. Some kinks showing up in the isobars at the weekend suggesting an unstable airflow.

Longing

I just came home and came straight on and walked straight into the twilight Zone. Weather boards never disappoints

Dont take one run has Gospel it will stab you in the back

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124102953#Comment_124102953

That's a fair enough point. It does seem hypocritical on my part but there are nuances as well. It's generally harder from my experience to nail a breakdown of cold weather a week out than the establishment of cold weather a week out for all sorts of reasons. Breakdowns are usually complex and you cannot tell a week out whether snow is going to be dumped here or there depending on how some warm front, for example, aligns itself against the cold air. That's just not possible to predict really. It is much easier if it's a northerly and a showery setup becoming established. You have much more scope to attempt forecast further ahead. It's more predictable.

I accept it looks hypocritical but it's not for cynical reasons.

Just for the avoidance of any doubt, it's absolutely possible (indeed favoured) that this cold snap will be over next Tuesday but that's not guaranteed. There's plenty of water to go under the bridge there yet.

Widdensushi

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124102942#Comment_124102942

Tenerife tomorrow,,I must check the forecast…

Monkeynut

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124102965#Comment_124102965

JS got stabbed, then shot then stabbed again. In the space of a few hours. Like watching 1 minute trading stocks.

Anyway, I'm getting to the age were I think the snow is grand on a weekend. Pain in the ball ox during the weekdays, commute, passing trade, etc. So hope for a quick blast and thats that. Would love it to snow for the kids and big kids in us all before the holidays are out. But meh it's Ireland. Never get your hopes up. Thanks all for the observations guys. Much appreciated.

.Donegal.

I’d say next time people won’t be arsed to open a thread. It’s a complete **** show of sniping, whinging and toddler meltdowns from the start.

JanuarySnowstor

18z ecm AI just out. Tuesday below

con747

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124102995#Comment_124102995

I follow the forum but only post in big events and of the same opinion, knives out.

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124102995#Comment_124102995

I think frustrations with many recent winters are boiling over,

probably the reason for what you have described.

pauldry

Best just let this event pan out. Its very borderline in that it could bring some snow or bring nothing but its better than anything this Winter yet.

squonk

This was never looking like a massive event or something likely to deliver beyond a few showers in northern areas and a bit inland. The only remarkable aspect was the unusua cold by standards of recent winters however these snaps do happen for a few days most winters still.

There was never any real justification for dedicated threads, ramping and the eventual throwing toys out of the pram which is the usual end of most of these threads.

We are a big(ish) island. We need prolonged cold to prime the pumps for any decent events and along with that we need a decent bit of luck with the right setup for widespread snow events. Somewhere gets a covering at some point most years. I’ve been lucky the past two winters I think to see a covering at my location but I don’t count on it . Sometimes 10 miles over the road is dry and sometimes it goes the other way.

Their just simply isn’t justification for these kind of dedicated threads. Certainly if facing a 2009/2010 scenario then yes, and certainly Emma in 2018 was pretty much locked down early on. Beyond that if you’ve been around here long enough you take every chart with a grain of salt and sometimes you only believe it’s snowing when you can see it resting on the windowsill. As a country, we are simply too marginal the majority of the time and that’s just the fact. When you see charts pushing events out day by day overtime it’s never a good sign and it usually signals the collapse or downgrade of the event before it even begins. In the end you just get a couple of days of cold and that’s it. Even with strong signals often times the snow you get is wet and a nuisance more to be a benefit. I keep having to say it, marginality is not our friend.

stephenjmcd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124102995#Comment_124102995

Because it was far to early to even open a thread. Yes its going to be cold, does it look like being anything major or more than a brief cold snap, no it doesn't not on current charts.

If any snow came it was going to be for some very small areas, while the majority would have albeit a very cold spell, sharp frosts and in generally icy weather. Absolutely nothing out of the ordinary for a cold winter snap.

There shouldn't have been a thread until the charts were firmer say 72hrs out.

The ramp so far in advance by some posters was silly. As was said time and time again, watch the charts over a prolonged period and not just 1 or 2 runs

snowgal

ah lads, it’s not over yet, it hasn’t even started! 😅 the swings of moods here, I get it though I’m a snow eternalist! Up and down we go! I’m buzzing, there’s snow in the air ppl 😊

rooney30

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124103029#Comment_124103029

Dude, give it up. It’s getting tiresome at this stage . If you think it doesn’t warrant a thread , then live by your convictions and stop reading and posting , plenty of other topics on boards you can occupy yourself with !

squonk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124103056#Comment_124103056

iYoure not expected to like my opinion and I don’t like yours but you’re entitled to it. It was obvious where this was going from early enough. Notting was nailed down and these things downgrade more often than not so perhaps engage me with some facts and convince me I’m wrong. Otherwise come back round about this time next year for the next snow thread and throw your toys out of your pram then too. I have been consistently arguing against these threads for several years now which inevitably get created because a cold snap is progged by a few days of chart runs but which tends to never materialise how most people want it to and, really, never was going to anyway and the result is a toxic environment and useful information buried amongst pages of posts about snow tyres, notes on visiting Wicklow mountains and god knows what else. Meanwhile the model threads with actually relevant information dry up. If you don’t like my view it’s fine. I won’t get offended if you skip over my posts or even put me on your ignore list. So, no, I won’t be giving it a rest thanks very much.

extra-ordinary_

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124102995#Comment_124102995

Disagreement is natural and healthy, especially when trying to predict the weather!