Storm Bram , Monday night 8th / Tues 9th Dec. 2025

Some difference between the 12Z and 18Z ARPEGE , a whole new departure showing that very strong stormy swathe of winds coming into the W moving in a NE'ly direction . Will ECM 18Z show something similar I wonder. I agree amazing to see such difference in the models at this late stage, crazy tight isobars and gradient on this one.

That's a very strong output by UKMO HD , big upgrade since the 12Z as can be seen below, inclined to overdo it some bit but has elements of what ARPEGE is showing if a different track.

ICON on the other hand showing Munster with Clare, Kerry and parts of Cork getting the strongest winds and very strong across the southern half of Ireland.

I suppose what I'm seeing is models being that bit inconsistent and finding this set up very difficult to pin down. A complex set up with a rapidly deepening storm just along the coast with a very sharp gradient transiting the country with a very quick forward momentum and minor changes in data giving big changes in output.

ECM 18Z is a small bit higher inland but not showing what ARPEGE, UKMO, HARMONIE and ICON is producing. I think from putting them altogether along with the GFS and especially AROME that I would be inclined to side with ECM / AROME with a small bit extra for added insurance perhaps . Just my opinion but I would think winds up to 130 km/h on coasts, maybe a bit higher on SW, W and NW headlands, up to 120 km/h in coastal areas a bit inland, mainly up to 110km/h across the country with localized streaks up to 120km/h, (see AROME charts below).

Winds arriving a bit later on latest ECM /AROME run and going through quickly enough, most places the strongest winds going through in about 3 -4 hours or so.

Rainfall totals look a tad down but what falls will be over a short period of time.

There will be time early in the morning to see if there is any major changes before the stronger winds arrive.