Storm Bram , Monday night 8th / Tues 9th Dec. 2025

Gerry is exhausted.

Was planning to go to work tomorrow, maybe I should wfh.. Although a power outage might be more likely in the Midlands. 🤔

If it's an orange wind warning does that mean you're not supposed to travel unless completely necessary?

I won't be taking this too seriously unless i see a MT late evening update!

Very quiet at the moment in south Roscommon, I'd say the morning will be a different story.

"STATUS ORANGE

Infrequent and dangerous weather conditions which may pose a threat to life and property.

Prepare yourself in an appropriate way depending on location and activity. All people and property in the affected areas can be significantly impacted.

Check your activity/event and delay or cancel as appropriate."

And from Cork City council

" Don't make any unnecessary journeys during the period of the orange warning and if you must travel, be vigilant for the risk of fallen trees and debris on roads;"

feic, did the desktop website get blown away?!

rain starting now in cork city, all decorations pinned down with wood logs just incase, will be interesting to see which model is the closest given how varied they are now

Oh sorry that’s them there now

Arpege often overdoes speeds by 15-20kph*

It's always on bin night isn't it?

I probably won't need to update existing forecast for land and I don't really plan my forecasts to be used by marine interests anyway, but the main risks with this are both marine and coastal flood potential being so close to recent full moon timing and northern declination max timings. It's a "king tide" situation even before the storm's added ingredients. Aviation interests will no doubt be briefed about rapid wind shear at height on take off and landing during this storm. With most big windstorm events in Ireland, you tend to get a rather gradual veering of wind direction but with this one there is potential for a very fast and therefore dangerous wind shear situation developing. I suppose it would be good also to mention that the fast wind direction change will be notable on land so drivers of high-sided vehicles take note, conditions at start of any journey may change rapidly en route. The change from southerly to westerly gale force gusts will be over a relatively brief interval of two to four hours.

People were asking about the Dublin impacts in particular. I would say along the coast some very strong gusts and local wave overtopping possible in SSE gales around dawn to mid-day, some places protected from southerly gales further inland, but in Kildare very strong SSW winds for a time (also temps 15-16 C) expect to see Casement gusting higher than Dub(A) for part of the day with that wind direction, then the strong westerlies to hit by early afternoon.

So it's mainly a costal event is what I'm taking from MT, not working until 11am tomorrow so happy out.

.. I'd rather take my chances and head home over staying in the office😂

It's strange that the AROME model is consistently calling this a non-event run to run. No sign of it to upgrade at all. AROME is generally quite accurate especially at this timeframe, so it's either completely dropped the ball with this one or it's seeing something the other models aren't. I don't put much faith in the GFS these days so wouldn't really heed the lower impact outcome there. But the GEM is also going for a much less severe outcome, in line with the GFS so who knows. Incredible to see so much variance in the models still, so close to the event.