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Storm Bram , Monday night 8th / Tues 9th Dec. 2025

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,052 ✭✭✭typhoony


    GFS 12z has backed off by approx 10mph for my location south Galway



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,810 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Ukmo like ecm, very severe across the South at lunchtime. A red for a couple of hours is indeed a risk

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 13,351 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    It did indeed for much of Ireland as did the French models ARPEGE and AROME, and also one of the main contributors ECM was less strong this morning ( which is in partnership and shares code and date between itself and ARPEGE ) .

    ECM is well back up there this evening right across the country and would imagine ARPEGE will be stronger again this evening too.

    GFS 12Z might be an outlier , was much weaker all of a sudden after the consistency between the 06Z and 0Z. Will see later.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,772 ✭✭✭Darwin


    The met Ensemble wind forecast has upgraded a bit for my location (SW Laois), but no sign of any Orange levels. Always interesting to check the various TAFs. Latest for Shannon, some 90 minutes ago, shows gusts up to 45 knots only. I would imagine that will change upwards on the next update.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,290 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    Well Gerry said keep watching met eirrean website for weather warnings and possible upgrades , they may issue red warnings I'd say in the next hour because any later and people will be complaining etc but what people don't understand is this system is abit of a head f*ck because models are still a little scattered but at least we now know it's coming from the southwest tracking west and to our northwest, only yesterday some models where showing it coming up from the south and then into Wales



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 419 ✭✭ascophyllum


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    Harmonie still going for it



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 585 ✭✭✭yew_tree


    How likely are any counties to go red?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,290 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    At this moment in time probably 60/40 for the likes of Limerick ,Clare, Galway ,Mayo, Leitrim and Donegal but if they do I'd say maybe 2 to 4 hours , as they've already extended their orange warnings , from my suspective anyway



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 818 ✭✭✭davidsr20


    is this looking as bad as the storm early in the year? For Galway



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,511 ✭✭✭obi604


    Could schools potentially close in these counties?
    I guess call has to be made soon enough on this versus 6am in morning.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 751 ✭✭✭finlma


    Kids school in coastal Galway closed tomorrow. Just got message



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,671 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Unusual to see a storm seemingly getting stronger as it approaches. By this stage normally models are backtracking on wind speeds.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,810 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    I doubt any red will come now. The rain from this storm is already moving in over the Southwest. Closing schools is a big deal, affects parents as much as children.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,802 ✭✭✭touts


    The schools will have to close if they are in a county with red status. Its an insurance issue. I would imagine they would be looking at calling that by the 9pm news if possible.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 621 ✭✭✭Ros4Sam24


    No definitely not as bad as Eowyn, more like storm Amy October 1st this year



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,290 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    They could very well close because it will be morning when the storm is passing to our west and northwest , I know in an orange warning it's up to the school if they close or not where as a red warning it's mandatory if you get me



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,671 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Been plenty red warning called late in the day. Think Galway. Mayo and Donegal certainly possible. Rain not really a big issue compared to the wind?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 419 ✭✭ascophyllum


    A very late red wouldn't be good tomorrow. Loading children on to busses in the height of it in coastal Mayo, Galway at 2.30-4 would not be ideal if the Harmonie charts verify.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,290 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    No but storm Eowyn is a bad example because that was an exceptional storm pressure got down to 930mb I think it was and the wind was off the charts for Ireland really I mean even ophelia wasn't as bad in terms of wind but we still sadly lost 3 people that day but that storm was moving rather fast , its also time of day a storm arrives as well , we'd see more injuries or death during the day rather than a night storm but I'd say it will be fairly gusty and damaging gusts for the very western sea board , just don't take any risks, also with this storm we have the increased chance of flooding with high spring tides as well so the likes of salt hill car park will be under water and any low lying areas will also be under water EDIT sorry wouldn't let me quote you davidsr20



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,271 ✭✭✭fish fingers


    Schools in oranmore Galway closed



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,109 ✭✭✭LadyMayBelle


    All schools? I hadn't heard this



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,264 ✭✭✭jackboy


    Marine reds are now used regular to close schools.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 165 ✭✭Thorny Queen


    We are near the coast under a marine red. Last storm went red at nearly school closing time. Poor bus drivers had to drive into the storm and back up again with children with additional needs onboard.

    I wish they would just call the school closure now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,290 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    I'm guessing they will announce if schools are to remain closed tomorrow on the 9pm news , it's this waiting around I wouldn't like if I had kids



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 268 ✭✭E36Ross


    School bus services are cancelled and NOT allowed operate in red weather.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 165 ✭✭Thorny Queen


    But what happens if children are already onboard the bus and moving? And the red warning is called.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,518 ✭✭✭✭billyhead


    How's it looking for Dublin?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 268 ✭✭E36Ross


    Bus Eireann are very clear on it, Red weather warning you do not drive in it. There's no ifs or buts.

    Has there ever even been a red weather warning called at such short notice? As in called for an hour or twos time?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 621 ✭✭✭Ros4Sam24


    Think some need to realise we do not have model consensus on the strength of the storm. The Arome and Arpege models which is usually very useful for storm tracking aren’t showing near as strong winds for the west coast. It’s a head scratcher 🤷‍♂️



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 621 ✭✭✭Ros4Sam24


    Yes Donegal in storm Amy had 2 hours notice in October for a red warning



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