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General British politics discussion thread

1589590592594595634

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 44,370 ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Funny how when I criticise a few poisonous narcissists, it always results in a stream of abuse.

    All trash like Corbyn and Sultana care about is their own profiles. They couldn't care less about Gaza. The repeated lie about them allegedly being principled does not change this.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,812 ✭✭✭Sudden Valley


    How do you know Corbyn doesnt care about Gaza? He may have some fringe policies but he has been anti establishment mp for most of his life. I doubt even his harshest critics in politics would say he was unprincipled or disingenuous in his policies.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 24,216 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    Now you're just spouting Hartley Brewer type nonsense.

    But hey, you're not alone, plenty people dont want a light shone on what has driven Labour policy since they came in to power.

    Calling Sultana in particular, trash is actually more like Michael Graham level commentary.

    What's the matter? Is her focus on the democracy within the UK shining an unpleasant light on the supposed beacon of democracy in the Middle East. Baseless statement by you and within a post claiming abuse is a bit rich.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,842 ✭✭✭Ozymandius2011


    Reform UK remind me a bit of the Conservative Party as it was in the Thatcher era, except protectionist and opposed to EU membership. Thatcher opposed European integration after the 1987 Single European Act though. The anti-DEI policy has echoes of Thatcher's Section 28 of the Local Government Act.

    A report in The Guardian divides Reform UKs electorate in 2024 into the following categories:

    • “Working Right” — economically insecure, anti‑elite.
    • “Squeezed Stewards” — concerned with fairness and public services, not just immigration.
    • “Hardline Conservatives” — socially conservative and traditionally affluent.
    • “Reluctant Reformers” — disillusioned with mainstream parties, desire change.
    • “Contrarian Youth” — younger voters, more ideologically mixed.
    • Reform’s support increases with age quite strongly: among voters 50–64 and 65+, Reform tends to be strongest, according to Statista in late 2025.
    • Among younger voters (18–24 / 25–34), support is much weaker — other parties (Labour, Greens, Liberal Democrats) tend to lead there.
    • But it’s not entirely absent among younger people: there remains a small share (though often dwarfed by other parties).

    The party seems quite hostile to the Equalities Act, passed in 2010 by the Labour government, which made it unlawful to discriminate against people with the following "protected characteristics":

    1. Age
    2. Disability
    3. Gender reassignment
    4. Marriage and civil partnership
    5. Pregnancy and maternity
    6. Race (includes nationality & ethnic origin)
    7. Religion or belief
    8. Sex
    9. Sexual orientation

    Farage has also recently said that the introduction of same sex marriage was "wrong". Reform UK councils have been taking down LGBT flags and also Ukrainian flags.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,448 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Jesus this is full on tabloid rag trash. Went straight for the typical right wing victim complex defence too.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 24,216 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    And they also said recently that they were against increasing the minimum wage (although they did try to wrangle out of that when pushed on it). And of course Thatcher was outright against a national minimum wage.

    Reform are busy trying to decide what their policies are. They realize you can get elected bleating on about small boats, but you can't govern on that topic alone.

    They're showing in their leadership of councils across the country that they are lacking in understanding the difference between populist campaign rhetoric and actual governance brass tacks so I think they've realized that they need to prioritize having a candidacy in 2029 that at least understands governance and on that basis they'll try to develop some policies. This is why they're accepting Torie run-offs who previously they suggested had skeletons in their closets.

    I expect they'll be heavily influenced by conservative populism and the success or otherwise of the Conservative position in the states at that time more so than anything specific to the UK's needs.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,842 ✭✭✭Ozymandius2011


    There was also the leaked recording of Reform UK councillors on Kent Country Council arguing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 24,216 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    Yeah, all the available evidence suggests they haven't a clue how to govern. And you can't get that experience easily.

    But, a significant part of the electorate wont assess them appropriately in that respect and the media certainly won't flag it.

    I wouldn't be surprised if by the time 2029 comes around, they'll be in sort of a strategic alignment with the Tories even though they wont try to broadcast too early or too loudly.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,448 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    And the media won't give it any of the doom mongering they give a potential Labour + someone coalition.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,452 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Farage would be a terrible PM. He's a populist and total spoofer with no leadership qualities and tends to fall out with people. Having said that, I think he may very well be the next PM, so it might be 'get the popcorn out' time



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,169 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    I see the unelected ex-government minister Offord has defected from the Tories to Reform



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,842 ✭✭✭Ozymandius2011


    Their express wish to restrict abortion is definitely not supported by all of their voters.

    Some party‑internal commentary suggests 58% support among members for things like a “heartbeat bill’’ (a stricter abortion limit) or generally more restrictive abortion laws.

    On the other hand, 46% of Reform UK voters say current abortion rules are "about right" with 25% disagreeing. This is similar to the views of Tory and Labour voters.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,448 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    AAbortion just isn't an issue whatsoever in the UK. Yes those people have an opinion because they were asked in a survey but it's a total non issue when it comes to picking parties.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 44,370 ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    The abortion thing comes from one James Orr, Professor of Divinity at the University of Cambridge. He has very close ties to JD Vance as well. He opposes abortion in all circumstances. This looks like Reform UK's American backers getting something in return for their funding.

    Agreed. This is clearly someone who is only interested in financial gain. He cannot keep a taxi-load of MPs in line. How will he grapple with the civil service and the other organs of state? I would think that there's a plan of pre-vetted Project 2025-style candidates for top positions or for roles as special advisors.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 41,064 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    Isn't it funny how the anti-choicer fringe crazies always gravitate to a new party in the hope of inflicting their vile policies on the electorate. Renua was the exact same.

    I'm partial to your abracadabra
    I'm raptured by the joy of it all



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 24,216 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    I think in this case, its because of the Ctrl C, Ctrl V adoption of culture war policies from the US conservative right.

    They haven't stopped to filter what actually is relevant within the view of the UK electorate.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 32,775 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    The problems would extend far beyond Farage. For this scenario to unfold, you would need literally hundreds of first-time MPs for Reform, and as has been seen in all the councils that they have taken over, their candidates are a mish-mash of comically unprepared to corrupt to nazi-ish. There was clearly no vetting done whatsoever.

    The idea you could form a cabinet at all or that the whole thing wouldn't fall apart in the space of a few months is laughable really. It would be a disaster on every imaginable level.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 2,991 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    The Farage & Tice et al leadership are on the burn-it-down wing of small statists but they know that they need to be attractive to people who are economically socialist. A while back Reform were trying to build links with unions though I don't think it was very successful.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,452 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Agree completely, but the idea of hundreds of first time Reform UK MPs is not an implausible one. Unlikely perhaps that they would have an overall majority, but a coalition government with the Conservatives and Farage as PM is definitely a prospect.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,448 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Can't see the Conservatives as the smaller party in a coalition but if they can claw back enough for a shared PM situation like Ireland has then yes Farage can be PM.

    I still think Labour have enough time to at least become popular enough to defeat the party that destroyed the country and a bunch of cobbled together fascists. It does look like realisation is starting to dawn for Labour.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,169 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    Labour are fecked but at least they are not Corbyn eh?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 2,991 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    The only way Labour could possibly win is if Reform and Conservative split their votes evenly, which is the sweet/sour (delete as appropriate) point between massive Tory losses but without Reform picking up that much. And they don't bleed too many votes off to the Greens.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,842 ✭✭✭Ozymandius2011


    Reports 3 other former UKIP/Reform UK MEPs may also have followed script given by ex pro Russian Ukrainian MP Voloshyn to convicted ex Welsh Reform UK leader Nathan Gill, who was convicted for taking Russian bribes.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,448 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Long way to go yet. Might not even be the same PM and cabinet by then.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 28,401 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    I think in projecting the outcome of the next election, we'e overlooking a signficant factor.

    No, not the fact that it's four years away, and there will likely be signficant movement in the polls before then. That's constantly mentioned.

    The factor is how strongly Reform is loathed by people who don't support it. This is well-attested in the polling data — Reform is a very polarising party.

    This would lead us to expect a higher than usual propensity for tactical voting in order to keep Reform out. And polls are supporting this expectation too. A majority of the supporters of all five UK-wide parties (Tories, Lab, Lib Dem, Reform, Green) say they're willing to vote tactically in order to keep out the party they hate and fear the most. Historically, that has not ben the case. And, since Reform takes the most-hated-and-feared title by at least twenty lengths, this is very bad news for Reform.

    In seats that lean to the right, and are contested between the Tories and Reform, the Tories will benefit, because Lab, LD and Green supporters who are willing to vote tactically — that that's a majority of them — will overwhelmingly break for the Tories, not Reform.

    In seats that are in the balance between left and right — could be taken by Reform/Tories on one side; could be taken by Lab/LD/Greens on the other — Reform supporters are twice as likely to vote Tory in an attempt to keep out the left than Tory supporters are to vote Reform.

    The political analyst Peter Kellner, formerly of Newsnight and YouGov, recently crunched the numbers in a Substack post; based on current polling figures, and on people's stated willingness to vote tactically, he projects that tactical voting will cost Reform 100 seats, and gain the Tories 50. Reform would still be the leading party on the right, but much less dominant. And the net loss of 50 seats would mean that Reform and the Tories between them would be 20 seats short of a majority.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 44,370 ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    The thing with Reform UK is that they've hit their ceiling. They've been flat at about 30% for the past few weeks. The demographic they've been targeting just is not sufficient to win an election by itself and the fact that they are so polarising makes expansion outside said demographic impossible. There's also the fact that repeated defections from the Tories just make Reform look like another Tory party.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 44,370 ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Also, I tried watching Liz Truss' new "show". I got about six words in after the intro and stopped at "fake news BBC".

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 3,184 ✭✭✭Hoop66


    Just think about what's going to come out re: Farage over the next 4 years? It's started slowly with the stories about him being a racist bully at school - and I'm sure very few are surprised at this.

    Does anyone really imagine that's all that's out there? Soneone like him is going to have way more skeletons in his closet. He may have been more careful that Nathan Gill about concealing his Russian bribes but it will come out.

    He's already trying the Trumpian "fake news, who are you with" response, but fortunately that doesn't wash with (most of) the British media.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 44,370 ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Not at all. With political power comes political scrutiny and responsibility. I expect there to be a lot more on the way. Unfortunately, the media still insist on treating him as their darling so most of this will come from the Guardian and the like. His problem is that he is just one man and he is recruiting from the far right so there won't be any real vetting. The main test will be ideological purity.

    Meanwhile:

    image.png

    The man who started this whole mess by pandering to the Eurosceptics, undermined the union, instituting austerity cuts linked to 120,000 deaths, holding that abomination of a referendum and then scarpering once it didn't go his way can't read a room.

    At least we never got that coalition of chaos with Ed Miliband.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,369 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    I'd rather watch the Lettuce again than sit through that cretins muttering.



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