Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

Talk of collapse is grossly exaggerated. They were supposed to take Pokrovsk in August 2024 and then the Kursk occupation tied Russia down there. Honestly look at the map of Ukraine in 2024 and compare it to 2025. The changes are not that major.

If we allow Ukraiine to be vassalised by Russia, we may have Russian forces on Poland and Romania's eastern border, because vassals are always forced to cede control of their foreign and defence policy to the suzerain.

When we left the UK in 1921 we had Dominion Status. Many were worried about how Britain might use the Governor Generals powers to veto Irish legislation. but these powers were never used. The British more or less left the 26 counties alone, even when facing possibly starvation from the U-Boat campaign in World War 2. We don't give Churchill enough credit for that. Some see Churchill only in the context of 1919-21, forgetting his support for Home Rule when in the Liberal Party, including going to Belfast and making a speech in favour of it despite hostile crowds. In the context of British politics at the time that took guts.

I think Zelensky is playing a role somewhat similar to Churchill in defending democracy. Of course there is a difference in that Churchill was also presiding over India during the Bengal Famine.

It sounds very much like the US side fully understand what is currently the reality of what is happening on the battlefield. This helps a lot because it will only get worse.

All these plans are nonsense, with Ukraine and Europeans unable to accept Russia's 30 year old main concern nothing can be agreed, then it gets rejected and goes on. Trump acknowledged this concern before he became President so that helps a lot also.

Even Zelensky's former spokeperson spells it out.

Putin hasnt yet accepted whatever the deal is.

We will live to regret betraying Ukraine if Putin invades more countries. Only a few days before the 2014 invasion Lavrov said they had no plans to invade Crimea.

Reports the Trump plan also barrs US troops from Poland. Shocking if true. And it shows Putin intends to come after them too.

White House officials told reporters it was an American proposal, even though the document embraced Russia’s repeated demands to force Ukraine to cede territory it controls, scale back its military and give up ever joining the NATO alliance. Some elements of the plan contradicted the Trump administration’s previously stated positions, including language that implied U.S. military forces would be barred from Poland.

This is despite an October poll showing 62% of Americans favour using US troops to defend Poland if they were attacked, and 55% favour using them to defend the Baltic states if they were attacked.

If giving up possession of thousands of nuclear weapons, and previously enshrining neutrality in their constitution, was not enough to stop Russia invading, then neither will returning to the poison well of disarmament and neutrality do so again. The purpose of neutrality is not to protect Russia, but to allow Russia to do what it wants in Ukraine. Look at the puppet regime in Georgia oppressing its people, rigging elections, copying Russian crackdown on NGOs and the LGBT community.

So do we just look at Trump as a war profiteer?

He sees everything as a way to build up money and influence ,knowing that if he helps out his familiy and "friends" he will automatically get a cut?

Is there any sign his base understand this or will understand this or will have a problem when they do?

Do Ukraine's allies understand that all he cares about is lining his pocket and sharing the spoils of war?

No deal is better than this crap. Really it is. Its the Minsk accords all over again. A delaying tactic for Russia to recover and rearm.

And the fact the Trump administration is being duplicitous and acting in the worst kind of faith, ought to be enough for Europe to fully back Ukraine in walking away.

If Ukraine is forced to not join NATO, and not build up its military as it wishes, then its sovereignty is not being maintained. Sovereign states have full freedom of policy and association.

Which is not to say the US or Hungary or Slovakia would agree to admit them to NATO now, but governments come and go, and Ukraine is perfectly entitled to that ambition, just as it is for EU membership.

My formula for peace would be for a bilateral coalition of the willing, outside of NATO; GB, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Poland, Sweden, Finland, Norway, the Baltics, Romania, Canada, Australia, Japan and other Europeans, to say to Russia - we are going to station a massive force inside Ukraine at their invitation, that you have brought this on yourselves, that you will never be allowed to build up and attack like that again, that any attack on agreed Ukrainian territory will garner a full conventional response from the allied force, and that Russian assets in the seas and skies anywhere will become legitimate targets.

Thats the sort of robust action which only Putin understands, and the sort that will shorten his tenure in Russia. It also removes America from the equation, until it decides whose side it is on. And if it is on nobody's side, fine, we'll carry on without you.

Why is this necessary? Because I cannot believe the lesson of appeasement on the European continent 90 years ago was obviously not learned. Christ knows it is documented in the dried blood of 39 Million dead on this continent alone.

And if we don't stamp on Russia's toes right now, in 2025 and 26, we'll be right back here in 2030, 2035, 2040.....

He also had business ties with Russia and Asia which in the opinion of some, are a factor in his position. There was a plan for a Trump Tower in Moscow.

Regarding war profiteering, without defending it, the alternative is making a loss, and thats not good either. Profit provides the capital to continue and maybe increase production. Communism as understood in the Warsaw Pact countries fell in part because of its attempt to defy the laws of supply and demand.

Some reports in the press of Trumps business ties with Russia before the war:

• As early as 1987, Trump visited the Soviet Union (then USSR) and reportedly discussed building a “large luxury hotel” in Moscow. Link to article.
• In the 2000s, the Trump Organization — via a partnership with Bayrock Group (a developer with Russian‑born principals) — tried again to build a “Trump Tower Moscow.” Washington Post Article.
• In 2013–2014, after the event of the Miss Universe 2013 pageant in Moscow (hosted in cooperation with Russian developer Aras Agalarov / his Crocus‑group), Trump’s company signed preliminary terms with Agalarov’s firm for a Russia‑based deal. Link to CNN article
• None of these Moscow‑based projects — hotel, tower, or large real‑estate build‑outs — ultimately materialized into completed Trump‑owned properties. Article on Wikipedia on this.
• Some of Trump’s U.S. properties were reportedly purchased by wealthy Russians or former‑Soviet individuals. For example, there was a high‑profile sale in 2008: a Palm Beach mansion Trump owned was sold to Russian oligarch Dmitry Rybolovlev for $95 million — more than double what Trump had paid for it just a few years earlier. Washington Post article on this
• Russian (or ex‑Soviet) buyers also reportedly bought condos/apartments in Trump‑branded buildings like Trump World Tower in Manhattan and other Trump properties. Wikipedia article on Trump World Tower.
• The Trump brand (name licensing, marketing, etc.) was sometimes pitched to Russians. According to investigative reports, Trump and his associates expected Russians and former‑Soviet wealthy individuals to be among the main buyers of Trump‑branded properties, especially after U.S. banks tightened lending standards. Washington Post article on this.
• For example, the Bayrock‑associated projects (such as Trump SoHo in New York) were reportedly marketed heavily toward Russian or former‑Soviet buyers. CNBC article on this.

Absolutely.

In the interests of peace, Russia may need to give up Russian territory, recognize Ukrainian as an official language, cap their military while becoming a neutral country. Putin needs to step down - following by fair elections monitoring by international observers. And they can no longer be a member of BRICS.

This will help to address the root causes of the conflict.

All of that is exactly right.

But it makes no difference. Corruption and insider dealing and clientilism and general filthy carry-on are no longer crimes in Washington DC. At least not when the MAGAts do it. They'll just call it fake news and then try and pursue their accusers with falsified charges and intimidatory tactics like turning up at their private addresses with Newsmax camera crews and publicly announcing those addresses and telling the baying audience that the person is Lib/swamp/seditious/fake news/un-American. That has now happened several times.

Thats what fascists do, and we in Europe should act accordingly.

my. Biggest gripe with the deal is

1. Putin gets immunity ( BiBi to follow)
2. Europe pays , America pays but gets 59% of profits
3. Putin and Trump somehow carved up the artic and are going to destroy it.
   
   has any of that changed ?

Yes, that's the original Russian version which was gutted by the EU version and has evolved since between EU/US/Ukraine in Geneva. But I don't know if the full details of that document have been released.

And as far as I'm aware all 3 of those points were removed or modified.

But the original RU "peace/surrender" plan is old hat at this stage.

Of which none of it matters anyway. Because Putin himself wasn't even going to accept the Kremlins own original version.

good to hear

Finally someone is advocating for Europe's decades old concern: An genocidal Russia on it's borders. :)

How can Europe best Russia when even NATO members continue to do such significant business with them. Just one example from today,

'Natural gas supplies from Russia to Turkey continue and there will be no import problems in the future, according to the head of the Turkish Energy Ministry, Alparslan Bayraktar. Russia has always been and remains a reliable supplier of natural gas to Turkey. Gas supplies to our country from Russia continue; there is no crisis, there are no problems and there will be none“, the minister said on Lider TV, commenting on the bill supported by US President Donald Trump, imposing new sanctions against Russia and countries cooperating with it. Turkey has been importing natural gas from Russia since the late 1980s. Russian gas is an important source of our imports. Thanks to it, Turkey meets about half of its natural gas needs. “Relations with Russia on energy issues are developing positively, Bayraktar noted.'

All this about de-Nazification and Russian fears of NATO. These were only put in the plan as they were the original excuses for invasion.