How much longer will FF last?

MM stands for talking about Gaza/Israel to distract from his own shortcomings. The rest of FF just fall in line.

I fear THAT if Jim O'Callgahn takes over, that will tip them over into being an Irish version of Keir Starmer's Blue Labour.

Jim O'Callaghan is also a bit gendercritical (I wrote letters to him saying we shouldn't follow the UK on the Cass report, which he disagreed with, and then chastised me for calling 'mildly gender critical people transphobes'. I've been called mildly gender critical myself, so I feel that if I'm considered mild, Christ knows what he's considered.

ff will be absolutely fine for some time, both ffg will keep each other propped up for a long time to come, maintaining their blocking position of any alternative government from being formed, tis all good, storm in the ould tea!

FF is going nowhere really but I'm afraid a part of it, ie, Micháel Martin is on his way out. His reign has been dictatorial to put it mildly, but the list of replacements for the position is zilch. Both FF and FG are lacking in any sort of strong leadership candidates, the electorate has completely changed over the years, hence the strong Independent vote. Those Indo votes going to those who left the FF and FG parties and no one doing anything about it. Martin will be history and there's going to be a fight over it, more will leave and it won't be nice. Too many people in positions that have blurred minds and entitlements. The day of reckoning has come, Martin goes but more will go along with him, they're not wanted.

I personally think MM wants to hang on as long as possible.(edit)

The auld cage rattler John McGuinness opining on the radio today that the party should change leader in the not too distant future. McGuinness is a pretty secure dynasty seat in Kilkenny with his own grassroots following so he won't pull punches with Martin.

It does seem like the party is stacked with 2011 survivors, many who might not rerun in the next election, so they'll want a clear out to clear the decks for their successors.

He's not interested in challenging for the leadership himself, but I reckon he fancies himself as a king maker. So if a heave is to happen no harm being at the forefront of a new lineup, especially when you might be handing over to the next generation of the dynasty at the next election.

Cards on the table - I have been an FF voter for many years. I supported them back in 2011 when they were at their lowest ebb, and I have continued to support them. I think MM is a stateman, and has an unbeatable political CV. There is no politician in the Dail today that can match his breadth of experience - Taoiseach twice, Tanaiste, Minister of Foreign Affairs (Twice), Minister for Education, Minister for Health, and Minister for Enterprise. He navigated the country well through some of the most difficult periods of COVID. He ran a great election in 2024, both local and general.

The reason I write all this is that it surprises me to hear that there is talk of a heave, for two reasons. First, we are four years out from an election - so this isn't election nerves. Second, as far as I am aware there is no challenger - Jim O Callaghan has made no indications he is looking to challenge MM, and I don't think he would win even if he did. If you are an FF minister or junior minister are you really going to rock the boat?

McGuinness is a spoofer - I have no time for the man. Empty vessels make the loudest noise. John Lahart is normally more reserved so his comments surprised me - but he has never been promoted to ministerial rank, so this may explain his motivation. James O'Connor is agitating for a cabinet position under a new regime. Naive. According to Ivan Yates, there seems to be a belief among a minority of FF backbenchers that MM can be replaced by Christmas. I disagree with Yates - MM is not in peril so long as he has full support of the cabinet.

Yes, the Gavin situation was a debacle. Stupid - no political experience, but worse yet no vision and no clear agenda. I like Jim Gavin, and I would have voted for him, but this was a terrible, terrible decision. Poor judgment? Yes? A resigning matter? No!!!!!

MM is not perfect. He needs to re-engage with the party, the back benchers, and grass roots. Maybe he also needs to tone down the lecturing in the Dail he gives the opposition. But he is FF's best chance to stay in government after 2029. Jim O'Callaghan is an unknown quantity - he has limited experience, and I honestly don't know what he represents. To his credit, he is turning around justice - but let's see the results in two years. I like Chambers, but I have yet to see any substance. Brown and Lawless are promising, and O'Brien could be a contender, but housing will likely hold him back. I don't know enough about Calleary to say anything. There are some good junior ministers - Thomas Byrne, Niamh Smyth, among others.

I suspect that MM will lead the party through at least 2026, and if there is a serious challenge it will occur towards the end of 2026 or beginning of 2027. I don't believe MM will continue on after his period of Taoiseach, and my guess is he will stand down as leader then. But I could be wrong because there is no EU Commissioner opportunity until 2029, and the next Aras race will be in 2032.