How much longer will FF last?

dublincc2

Tonight’s news about Gavin’s withdrawal is a surprise, even though he never had a realistic shot at winning. It says much more about FF than it does about him. Something that has been pondered for over a decade and which I think should really be front and centre now is fundamentally what is the point in the existence of this party?

FF ruled ROI electorally for so long because they had the perfect blend of rural conservatism and urban capitalism. Nowadays what do they have? What do they stand for?

In the Martin years they have gone into an ideological black hole. There is nothing separating them from FG or SF on social policy, foreign policy and largely on economic policy as well. They are a nonentity in terms of distinct politics.

Once the gombeen rural voters who vote FF because their parents and grandparents before them did or because a FF councillor got a pothole fixed 35 years ago die off, who is going to vote for them?

Simi

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058426082/how-much-longer-will-ff-last

I never understood why people voted for them in the first place, but the same could be said of all major Irish parties. They're all populists devoid of any idelogy to speak of. It's not a good thing, but it's not necessarily a bad thing either, it does avoid the polarisation seen in other countries, potentially bouncing from hard right to left every election cycle. At the same stage I wish they had at least some principles on which to differentiate them.

dmakc

MM stands for talking about Gaza/Israel to distract from his own shortcomings. The rest of FF just fall in line.

flazio

Irish political parties tend to be more adaptable to the needs and wants of their potential electorate, MMs Fianna Fail is a completely different animal to Devs FF back in the day, because it's a different Ireland.

George White

I fear THAT if Jim O'Callgahn takes over, that will tip them over into being an Irish version of Keir Starmer's Blue Labour.

Jim O'Callaghan is also a bit gendercritical (I wrote letters to him saying we shouldn't follow the UK on the Cass report, which he disagreed with, and then chastised me for calling 'mildly gender critical people transphobes'. I've been called mildly gender critical myself, so I feel that if I'm considered mild, Christ knows what he's considered.

dublincc2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123882031#Comment_123882031

If anything the second paragraph is one of the few positive things he has going for him. The whole gender thing is toxic to the electorate.

Wanderer78

ff will be absolutely fine for some time, both ffg will keep each other propped up for a long time to come, maintaining their blocking position of any alternative government from being formed, tis all good, storm in the ould tea!

almostover

Ok so the question is being asked about how long will the largest political party based on the number of seats in the Dáil and the number of local councillors, not to mention the joint highest number of MEPs (tied with FG) will last? Yes, their large majority has waned significantly but they are still the largest force in Irish politics. Even considering that they bankrupted the country in the late noughties. I think a crap presidential campaign will be chicken feed to them.

Pat734

FF is going nowhere really but I'm afraid a part of it, ie, Micháel Martin is on his way out. His reign has been dictatorial to put it mildly, but the list of replacements for the position is zilch. Both FF and FG are lacking in any sort of strong leadership candidates, the electorate has completely changed over the years, hence the strong Independent vote. Those Indo votes going to those who left the FF and FG parties and no one doing anything about it. Martin will be history and there's going to be a fight over it, more will leave and it won't be nice. Too many people in positions that have blurred minds and entitlements. The day of reckoning has come, Martin goes but more will go along with him, they're not wanted.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123882400#Comment_123882400

There's zero polling to support your claims; and more importantly, this isn't the UK.

We have the self ID rules the UK has lost their minds over for a decade now already.

blanch152

So Martin isn't going anywhere, and neither are FF.

Martin will step down as leader following his time as Taoiseach. That will allow a new leader two years until the next election. We will see changes, the worldwide trend is rightward on social issues like gender and immigration. FF will follow that trend. Expect the rhetoric on a united Ireland to be dialled up, but little in the way of actual action. Possibly absorb a smaller party like II or Aontu as well.

The interesting question is whether that will be enough to keep it up there to the forefront. Outside of Dublin, they could have a seat in every constituency.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123890762#Comment_123890762

There is only one non-Dublin constituency they don't have a seat in (Tipperary South). They consider a seat in every constituency (not just outside Dublin) that to be a baseline target, not a stretch goal, and Martin has got a lot of criticism for failing to get that.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123890781#Comment_123890781

Well, yes, but in answer to the OP, that ability to take a seat in every constituency outside of Dublin is going nowhere.

George White

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123882758#Comment_123882758

What I find interesting is my cousin (who knows I'm GNC) has been gendering Barbie Khardashian as female, calling them she. (She was warning me, believing that Khardashian may be preying on other trans people). I was astonished that she was using 'she', especially when her dad is the only real actively gendercritical (i.e. 'Linehan's right') person I know. She takes after her mum, though, rather than her dad.

z80CPU

As minister for justice Jim O'Callaghan has been a model FF " mudguard " minister: just take the cr@p, do nothing and don't escalate it higher.

Back when Charlie Haughy was taoiseach he had his cabinet photographed each with their microphone which did not work.

I feel Jim would have fitted in just fine back then. Jim reminds me of Ruadhri O'Hanlon the then FF minister for health and boy did he take some flak but didn't do much about it

George White

My own personal experience with O'Callaghan is he's socially forty years behind too.

freshpopcorn

I personally think MM wants to hang on as long as possible.(edit)

zell12

Knives are out!

go raibh “dearmadaí” déanta ag Fianna Fáil maidir leis an bhfeachtas uachtaránachta agus go raibh “deireadh nádúrtha” ag teacht le ré Martin, atá ina cheannaire ar an bpáirtí ón mbliain 2011. [Tá] “scaradh” ann anois idir Micheál Martin agus a pháirtí.

“Ba é buille maraithe na muice é an treoir, nó an leid, a thug sé go raibh sé féin ag vótáil do Heather Humphreys https://tuairisc.ie/deireadh-nadurtha-ag-teacht-le-re-mhichil-martin-o-cuiv/

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123933202#Comment_123933202

O'Cuiv is a fossilised relic. Nobody within FF pays any attention to what he says anymore. Together with Willie O'Dea and John McGuinness, they are the bitter men of the past. Their political philosophy is so last century and hasn't been updated for the modern world.