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Presidential Election 2025

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Comments

  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 31,350 CMod ✭✭✭✭johnny_ultimate


    Sean Kelly couldn't garner enough support within Fine Gael to get on the ballot, even when the favoured candidate dropped out

    Bob Geldof apparently wasn't bothered to phone up Micheál Martin to ask about being nominated until FF had already picked a candidate, but apparently would've 'walked it' had MM said yes

    Maria Steen's name wasn't even in the mix until a week or two before nominations closed, and then it was a grave injustice when she wasn't picked

    All these people coming out complaining about the process or claiming they'd have won - lads, you need to the due dilligence and work to get on the bloody ballot in the first place.

    I've no time whatsoever for Gareth Sheridan (I had no idea what he stood for or why anyone should vote for him), but at least he put in an organised, active campaign to try to get on the ballot. Even a chancer like Nick Delehanty put in more work than Geldof.

    Sure, there's a perfectly valid case to be made a field of two / two-and-a-dropout is too small, or that the party processes were flawed, but the sour grapes ring hollow in most of these cases.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,914 ✭✭✭Rocket_GD


    Never voted for FF/FG.

    My vote is based on who I believe would be better at the role and who I align with more in my views.

    I will vote for the candidate/party that I believe represents my views best.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 41,005 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    That's ridiculous tbh, so because European constituencies are the largest we should only ever have MEPs as candidates?

    Or FG should have ignored their own party rules on selection of a candidate, and had the leadership impose one?

    I'm partial to your abracadabra
    I'm raptured by the joy of it all



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,190 ✭✭✭✭Brendan Bendar


    Is it any wonder people are scared when they see the contigent that CC gathers around herself.

    Daly,Wallace.Murphy,Flanagan, Doherty, Eirigy lady, and so on……………

    Not the most productive bunch you ever saw, I would opine.

    Batten down the hatches Middle Ireland…..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,488 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    The fact he didn't have enough support in the Fine Gael parliamentary party was the problem. The parliamentary party has proven not to be the best judge of what the wider public wants, so maybe they should change their processes here?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,413 ✭✭✭corkie


    I was going to create one later tonight when the polls closed. But was informed it wasn't needed because there wouldn't be much difference to the two polls already here?

    Someone mentioned voting 1,2 & 3. Only 1 & 2 will apply and probably only with voting 1 gavin. Because he is the only candidate the possibly will possibly have transfers.

    If I do a poll later it will probably have the below options:-

    • Voted 1 for Connolly
    • Voted 1 for Humphreys
    • Voted 1 only for Gavin
    • Vote 1 for Gavin & 2 for Humphreys
    • Vote 1 for Gavin & 2 for Connolly
    • Made my ballot invalid (spoilt)
    • Abstained

    That is if people want the Exit Poll, I will create it around 10pm on CA.

    I'm not doing it before that, because don't want it to influence peoples votes.

    "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." ~ George Santayana
    "But that's balanced out by the fact that it's a mandate not to do very much." ~ Prof. Eoin O'Malley



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,780 ✭✭✭Ozymandius2011


    One thing which has some potential for unpredictability is the 28% undecided.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    The only way they have a factor is if they largely consist of reluctant Humphreys voters. Very unlikely, but some of the 28% will include FF and Labour voters who don't want to say they are voting that way.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,488 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    Sean Kelly got 122k votes, topped the poll in Ireland South and was elected on the first count. Ireland South covers 10 counties (including 3 cities) and he has shown to be able to get a decent vote across that chunk of the country.

    Heather Humphreys got 12k votes in Cavan-Monaghan in her last election which was a good FPV, but she was less proven on a national scale. That is not to say that only MEPs should be candidates, but the national profile of somebody needs to be taken into account.

    It is clear as day that the current process that Fine Gael follow to pick their candidates doesn't work well. The same goes for Fianna Fáil. They should learn from what happened in this election process to come up with a better process going forward.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,780 ✭✭✭Ozymandius2011


    Turnout figures.

    Dublin 9.30.

    • Dublin North West - 2.35%
    • Dublin Bay North – 4.25% 
    • Dublin Central – 4%
    • Dublin Bay South 3.8%
    • Dublin South Central – 1.7%

    Waterford (10.30)
    Waterford City: 7%
    Tramore: 8%
    Dungarvan 5-6%



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 31,350 CMod ✭✭✭✭johnny_ultimate


    I'll give - with great reluctance - FG a modicum of understanding in the sense that they'd clearly gone all in on Mairead McGuinness, who would've unquestionably been a stronger candidate. Circumstances beyond anyone's control got in the way there. They had to pivot late.

    I've plenty of criticism for what I think has been a very weak and misjudged Humphreys campaign, however.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,094 ✭✭✭MFPM


    Never put a tick beside a FF or FG candidate in any election.

    Will continue to vote left but generally those to the left of Labour .



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 31,350 CMod ✭✭✭✭johnny_ultimate


    Wouldn't recommend putting a tick beside any candidate as that'd likely be a spoiled vote 😅



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,623 ✭✭✭jmcc


    From the people who gave FG Leo Varadkar and one of the worst GE defeats ever for FG? From the people who gave FG Simon Harris and second place behind SF again?

    Did it ever occur to you that the FG grassroots might have a better clue about winning elections than these people? Kelly has a proven record of getting large numbers of votes across the political spectrum. This is the kind of candidate that FG needed. It is no longer the party of 2011 with 76 Dail seats. It only has half that number now. Humphreys failed to break out of the FG silo. She is an FG candidate for FG supporters. The problem, if you haven't realised it yet, is that FG does not have enough supporters to elect a president without help from FF and other voters.

    Rejecting Kelly like that was a stupid move. Given the history of stupid moves by FG management, that statement about if it was raining soup, FG would be out with a fork is apt.

    Regards…jmcc



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,413 ✭✭✭corkie


    A tick or an X in just one candidates box could be consider as a preference for that candidate!

    "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." ~ George Santayana
    "But that's balanced out by the fact that it's a mandate not to do very much." ~ Prof. Eoin O'Malley



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 13,889 ✭✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    Voted Connolly (IND) in last 3 elections. FG for nearly 2 decades before that. Never will vote FG (or FF) again. FG's "New Politics" never happened.

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth house?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,596 ✭✭✭✭8-10


    Party affiliation has never influenced my Presidential vote



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 31,350 CMod ✭✭✭✭johnny_ultimate


    Numbers much safer, even for one candidate - but yes would likely be counted in the event of a single preference!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,856 ✭✭✭liamtech


    So you dont see any benefit of Labour, and other left wing parties moving forward? Genuine question, we probably agree that their needs to be a change of Government. Do you not see the need for a stable Left Wing Coalition, as opposed to one stacked with independents, and parish pump politicians?

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,802 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    If you don't think an FF/FG coalition is new politics, you're missing the point.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,802 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    One tick, vote will be taken as a No. 1 and go no further.

    Two or more ticks, spoiled.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 13,889 ✭✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    New Politics was about reform. There was none.

    Some lines from the Fine Gael New Politics document

    Fine Gael’s starting point is simple: political failure lies at the heart of Ireland’s economic collapse. The finger of responsibility must, in the first instance, point directly to the massive policy failures of the recent Fianna-Fail led Governments and their willingness to promote the interests of a so-called “Golden Circle” over the interests of the Citizen. Under Fianna Fail a political culture developed which ensured that the bankers and the developers were not dealt with before it was too late. A culture which tolerates cosy cartels and high costs in the private sector and ignores the need for radical reform in the public sector.

    Fine Gael’s New Politics tackles all of these weaknesses head-on and will restore people’s trust in the political process by delivering real, tangible change. The Irish people are rightly outraged at the way in which their country has been misgoverned. However, there is a danger that this anger, if not addressed through positive reform, will lead to increasing numbers of our citizens disengaging from the democratic process. This cannot be allowed to happen.

    Exhibit A - Children's Hospital

    Exhibit B - Public Sector Standards Bill 2018 (under review, will never ever ever be passed)

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth house?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 79,468 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    The greatest con-job in the recent history of Irish politics.

    For those wondering why FG can't sustain support above 20%, look to Enda for the reason.

    Good to see him out endorsing HH.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,523 ✭✭✭creedp


    on the one hand the Irish President only has a ceremonial role at best, on the other hand the role has so much influence the wrong candidate will destroy the country. The funny thing is the extreme ends of both side use this argument to further their own argument when it suits.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,488 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    Labour voter here, so voted Connolly. Don't think she was a good candidate at all, but Humphreys proved to be a rubbish one so was an easy choice in the end.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,856 ✭✭✭liamtech


    Well in my view there is no question that, the kite being flown on how to deal with cost of living increases - is a tax credit based system.

    Its been discussed for months, as far back as the spring, when MM and SH both stated that the 'One off Payments' and 'Energy Credits' would be discontinued. MM spoke of targetting these issues for tax credits which would 'offer the same benefit in a more targetted way' (words to this effect, not a quote)

    Look we can disagree if you wish - you quoted me above, and i acknowledge that; and it was at a time when i was replying to multiple discussions. I stand by my criticism of FFG, who obviously gave out the one-off-payments, and energy credits, as prelude to being elected.

    Now at the beginning of a new term, they have back pedalled and stated that - tax credits and write offs will be their 'preferred method' of easing the burdens that voters face moving forward. But it is as of yet, not implemented.

    Developers have always received tax breaks from FFG, i should be pushing an open door on that one. There entire method of dealing with the housing crisis is to 'incentivise' developers toward providing 'affordable' and 'social' homes. The terms affordable and social tend to be fudged deliberately, so as to disguise the lack of social housing in this country.

    I dont want to put words in your mouth - i think you are taking exception to my use of the terms 'very high wage' in relation to earnings - would that be fair?

    High wage earners will benefit from tax breaks, if it matters to them at all, and someone else pointed out that the credit is only applicable to their lower bracket Income-tax payments. If we accept this, then I would argue that such a measure is not 'targetted'; someone on a 'very high wage' will not be suffering in any way to speak of, when it comes to cost of living.

    As for middle income earners, they probably do benefit the most - we could argue though, that while suffering more than the above, they are more comfortable than those below.

    Those on low wages (who therefore pay less tax, while suffering more from cost of living increases) - will proportionately see very little improvement to their situations. I dont view any of these measures as 'targetted'

    I never even mentioned those who are unemployed, or on disability - they dont pay tax, and therefore their only 'increase' toward the cost of living crisis - is 12 euro a week.

    Another source of disagreement between us, may be that I led one to believe the measures were already in place. They arent, i acknowledge this. It was part of a long form discussion between myself and several other posters, on whether or not to consider FFG as centre, versus centre right - and on the nature of the political landscape in ireland. It wasnt my intention to get snippy, and i acknowledged many times that its probably OFF TOPIC for this thread. It was a general discussion though, and i should have been clearer.

    Happy to discuss @8-10 - i hope i clarified in way that you felt was fair? Its difficult when im chatting to multiple people. Yesterday was bizarre because I was shifting between criticizing CC for being FAR LEFT, and receiving blowback for doing so from Left-Wing posters - but then I ended up in a back and forth on politics in general, and was defending left wing values, while criticizing FFG and the Centre right - i think i could have spoken more clearly in the quote, i acknowledge that.

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,780 ✭✭✭Ozymandius2011


    Turnouts:

    • Dublin North West – 8.65%
    • Dublin Bay North – 13.21%
    • Dublin Central – 8.75%
    • Dublin Bay South – 10.50%
    • Dublin South Central – 10.48%

    Meanwhile, in Offaly, here’s how things stood as of 12.30:

    • Birr – 9.2%
    • Banagher – 8.0%
    • Tullamore – 10.1%
    • Clara – 9.5%
    • Portarlington – 9.0%
    • Walsh Island – 10.2%

    Meath as of 11.30am:

    • Ashbourne N.S – 7.4%
    • Ratoath N.S – 6.5%
    • Kells – 6.45%
    • Bettystown – 8.3%
    • Athboy – 6%

    In the Navan area specifically, here’s how the polling stations are doing:

    • St. Anne’s N.S – 3.8%
    • St. Paul’s N.S -3.8%
    • St. Stephen’s N.S – 5.7%
    • St. Oliver’s N.S – 5%

    Galway West figures. Ranging from turnout of 8-14%. CCs constituency.

    Mayo turnout about an hour ago:

    Kerry:



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,605 ✭✭✭ilkhanid


    Seeing Connolly's comments about Clare Daly quoted in the Indo yesterday, confirmed my antipathy towards her.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,322 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Voted myself.

    Ask someone there about turnout; they said it was low.
    Unless there is a big evening surge, there is no way this will break 40%

    Also, I know of some people who are deliberately spoiling the vote. These people would normally vote either way, but this time not so. I also know some people who always vote and are not going to bother this time.

    Apathy and anger at the system appear to be the winners, regardless of whether CC gets the job.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 3,576 ✭✭✭Cyclingtourist


    That's total BS.

    A vote for either candidate is just that. Like a vote for CC isn't a vote for Paul Murphy, Ivana or Holly, same for HH.

    At my polling station today, voters were outnumbered four to one by officials. I predict a low turnout.



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