Presidential Election 2025

No. It isn't.

I say once again, its 55/45.

Connolly needs a strong turnout. And thats where her demographics are weakest. She needs it to overperform at a level of Repeal the 8th. I simply don't see that.

Where have I said I’m a FG supporter? The over the top reactions of CC loyalists are simply juvenile when posters criticise their precious candidate - it’s getting tiresome at this stage- I’ve criticised all candidates where I’ve seen they deserve it-that’s called balanced argument- and it’s certainly not the sign of a “FG voter “- I’ve considered HH and I’ve also said I’ll be very despondent regardless of how I vote on the day- but elating CC to sainthood and beyond criticism just knocks reasonable discussion off the agenda

“Connolly needs a strong turnout. And thats where her demographics are weakest.”

In “normal” times I’d agree- but given a few factors:

1. Weakness of opposition
2. A mini-cult like devotion to CC- especially younger voters and especially via social media which HH didn’t manage to achieve - there’s an impetus for young people to come out and vote- it doesn’t often happen but I reckon it will this time
3. There’s also a strong impetus for older voters, maybe for one of the first times ever, to stay away- FF and FG candidates will not bring out the far superior numbers of older voters, that HH needs
4. Many centre left will vote CC

If the margins were neck and neck, I’d nearly put money on HH- but I don’t see her making up this big a gap at this stage

I say once again, its 55/45.

and we're all meant to take this on trust?

The times are perfectly normal.

Ireland is a centrist country. Always has been. Even in the dark days of the financial crash and IMF bailout that didn't change, only the personalities did.

We are risk averse as a nation. Just ask every Sinn Féin supporter who were there for the last three general election counts. Disappointment time and again.

You believe there is an impetus for young people to come out, yet every outlet and commentator is predicting a historically low turnout. Both cannot be true on the day.

This is a 55/45 election and the bases showing up is the ballgame.

There are a lot of Protest votes in the JG figures? And surely any JG/FF moving to HH have already indicated this in the poll?

I am/was JG only and moving to JG/CC, more than likely, before Friday. I saw some other posters doing the same here. (

Wouldn't it be gas if HH was knocked out in the first round and it's her transfers going to Jim….or even CC

Maybe all the undecideds are going JG in protest, just haven't said it yet.

(Edit:- See new post "who are you voting for Thread!!)

It’s the one voting statistic I can’t wait to see post election- just how many voters who attended on the day voted for JG and then where did any second preference votes head to?

Will your older traditional FF voter transfer to HH? If they view this election through party as opposed to person, then yes they probably will - but there’s certainly 20+% of these voters predicted to head to CC- IF there’s transfers, it will likely be no more than 60:40 HH:CC - given a predicted low voting for JG anyway, it will narrow the gap by maybe 2-3% overall - meaning HH needs a massive older voter turnout and for young people to plain stay away- I’m not seeing either

After FF/PDs crashed the economy, the dominant Irish political model changed from the old 2.5 party model with Labour being the half party necessary for government to a Big Three party model around 2013. It crystalised in the 2016 GE when Labour got obliterated. The Big Three Parties were FG, FF and SF. The problem with the Big Three party model is that no two parties are large enough to form a government and they depend on Independents or fringe parties. SF beat FG in 2020 and in 2024. FF and FG did not win enough seats in 2024 to form a government. They had to do a grotty deal with Lowry. How does this connect to the presidential election? FF and FG, going into the election, were on thin ice and could not select a single candidate who could win the presidential election.

The cumulative FF and FG support continued to drop with FG reaching a historic low of 16% in the April 2025 Irish Times/Ipsos-B&A poll. FG hasn't recovered. The combined FFG % in that poll was 38% with FF on 22%. The recent Irish Times/Ipsos-B&A poll had FFG on 35%. Now, look at the latest RedC poll and the combined Gavin and Humpreys total is the same even though they different polls using different methodologies and are attempting to measure different things (party support and presidential candidate support). Mixing and matching is not reliable. It does show some interesting parallels.

The surprises don't stop there. The combined support for SocDems/Labour/PBP/Greens/SF is 5+6+2+3+27. That's 43%. That is remarkably close to the Connolly FPV figure of 44% in the latest RedC poll even though they were using different methodologies and measuring candidate support rather than party support. There is an effect that happens in the last days before an election with opinion polls. Opinion polls using different methodologies (panel based or face to face) begin to resemble each other as the numbers of undecided voters drop and voters make their decisions.

Who are the Connolly mob though? None of this has come from CC or her campaign. Angry, shouty types on social media who 'claim' to be supporters of hers hardly merit a mention.

It is an interesting correlation. Whether it is a kind of liquorice allsorts effects with the sums of the support for the parties being similar to that of the support for the presidential candidate is open to question. It may also be an effect of the limited set of candidates and lack of choice. The Independent voters are also not a single group in terms of affiliation.

No representation without taxation.

When the 6 counties decide in a majority that they want to unify with the Republic, then they can vote in presidential elections. And Dáil elections and Council elections and European elections and best in show at the Labrador convention elections.

And when it comes to Unionists, Catherine Connolly's election, though unwelcome to me, would be neither here nor there to Unionists. You could dig up Queen Victoria and make her president of the Irish Republic and they still wouldn't get on board with unity. The only thing that will deal with them is democratic erasure.

First-time Labour TD Ciarán Ahern has apologised to his Labour Party colleagues after his tweet defending the People Before Profit Solidarity TD Paul Murphy caused “a lot of hurt” across the party.

Is Labour divided generationally between more moderate Establishment members and some of the younger TDs?