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Presidential Election 2025

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,094 ✭✭✭MFPM


    There was ridicule among many of the 'neutral' pol corrs, gov back benches and some ministers, centrist X accounts and of course many here…it's amusing watching how it's unfolded.

    The backing of CC made eminent sense for the Shinners and was always going to be significant for CC.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,754 ✭✭✭Quitelife


    this is a election between a rich Fine Gaeler and a Leftie ….



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 948 ✭✭✭septictank


    Heather on Newstalk right now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,082 ✭✭✭An Claidheamh


    No chance of Today FM then?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,755 ✭✭✭Ozymandius2011




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,190 ✭✭✭✭Brendan Bendar


    Yep. Hid the fact they couldn’t produce a credible candidate themselves.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    There was a reason for that swing in 2011. Rte, fake tweet etc

    There's no reason for a swing yet anyway HH was shocking again last night IMHO. Could not listen to her for 7 years..eh...am …eh.eh..am..eh eh oh...

    As bad and all as CC is, she is a few levels above HH imo.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 406 ✭✭tarvis


    oh gawd that screechy voice - she represents the middle which has us where we are ! Change needed.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,029 ✭✭✭Caquas


    Not the issue. Much more importantly, Presidential candidates get their up to €20@K of their expenses reimbursed if they get over a quarter of the quota (I.e. 12.5%)

    Surely Heather will get that but Jim Gavin won’t and that will be very costly for FF.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,618 ✭✭✭jmcc


    The problem is that many of the polcorrs identify too closely with the government because they want a job as a SPAD. The media can, at times, be considered a government effluent outlet as there is often a kind of uniformity of reporting on particular stories due to a reluctance to dig deeper. Digging deeper means a loss of career advancement.

    The irony of SF backing Connolly was that none, from what I remember, of the polcorrs or journos were smart enough to realise that this was the FFG strategy from 2018 being used in a very effective manner. In 2018, the journos all treated Higgins as an "independent" candidate when in reality he was the FFG candidate due to them endorsing him and not running their own candidates. SF backed Connolly but Connolly was not the SF candidate. She wasn't marketed as the SF candidate. Connolly became the combined Left candidate.

    The ramifications of a Connolly win are profound for a combined Left. It has also given Bacik a lifeline against the Alan Kelly types in Labour who, had Connolly done badly, would have been pushing to get rid of Bacik and probably reinstall Kelly as leader. The SocDems have made their bones as a serious political party. A Connolly win means that the "fragmented Left" narrative pushed by the media is in trouble. The combined Left has more support than FFG according to the IT poll. That is a major political earthquake that went largely unnoticed by the media. If the RedC poll tonight also shows the party support %s and they concur, things are going to get iffy for Harris and Martin.

    Regards…jmcc



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 4,174 ✭✭✭Field east


    , when you say that my reasoning ‘is flawed in my view’ does that mean that you are giving your opinion and you are not basing what you are saying on law , on code of practice or whatever set of rules apply to the sector? . If it’s your opinion then it is still open for discussion.

    I would be curious to know if CC worked as a barrister with a company or did she work as a sole trader ie worked for herself.

    Also who assigns cases to barristers or when one says that cases are given to barristers,who gives them cases. Is it the court that assigns cases to barristers or is it the CEO or designate of a law company that makes the decision?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 4,174 ✭✭✭Field east


    Some boardie suggested that CC , acting as a barrister on an eviction case on the banks side should have no problem in supporting the plaintiff in a personal capacity as she practices the skill of compartmentalisation. Simon Harris can adapt the same strategy when he goes to the Arus for the seal!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭liamtech


    Well thanks for your reply.

    My opinion is based on the information that has been made available. Of course, I have read multiple stories, and legal opinions that have gone public. I am not a barrister, and have only a small familiarity with the law, thanks to my Politics degree. Im happy to be debunked by someone who can speak with more authority. I stand by my stance on this matter. I have been criticizing Catherine Connolly for weeks, on her policy positions. Specifically on her Foreign Policy stance regarding the EU, which i think is flawed.

    On the current Barrister/Repo story, I am very vocal in attacking it. I believe its an invented story, based on faulty logic. And i am firm in referring to it as a smear. FG created it, so that they can appear credible in calling Connolly a hypocrit. But its a total smear as far as I am concerned. Of course the topic is still open for discussion, but IMHO, the story is not a valid move to make.

    I would be curious to know if CC worked as a barrister with a company or did she work as a sole trader ie worked for herself. (quoted from above post)

    My understanding is that she was a private barrister, possibly working with a group of other loosly affiliated barristers. But i think what you are getting at, is whether she was part of a firm (Smith, Fallon and Jones etc). No as far as I am aware, that was not the case. Its relevant though, because if she was part of a firm, who had taken on a large bank as a client, she could TECHNICALLY, have resigned? While remaining a barrister. Im not entirely positive she could have abandoned all legal obligations to the bank/client in this case though - someone else could possibly answer that. But as far as I know, she was a sole trader, possibly sharing space with other similiar barristers.

    As to who it is who assigns cases, im assuming its the DPP? (Director of Public Prosecutions) or some analagous department within the judicial system, for civil cases. (Happy to receive clarification on this)

    My understanding is that the cases are handed out following the 'Cab Rank Rule', assigning cases to independent 'Sole Trading' Barristers; which is how/why CC would end up representing banks. CBR means a barrister receives a case, which they must work on, provided there are no conflicts of interest.

    There are a few get out clauses (if the 'job' will require too much time in relation to other case, if the client will be unable to offer adequate compensation/pay). Otherwise, unless and until it can be proved that a serious conflict of interest exists, the barrister in question is stuck with the case. This, i believe, explains why CC may well have represented Banks in repossession cases.

    Im happy to debate this with you, and i want to be clear; I wasnt personally attacking you, or trying to get snippy. My stance is, there are many reasons to criticize Catherine Connolly in this election cycle. But criticizing a barrister, for being a barrister, and for performing her duties as required within the system, is not a valid move. In my opinion it is a smear, and one that has been invented to allow FG, HH, and their supporters, to call CC a hypocrit. And i cannot get behind that at all.

    Aside from it being unwise to drag the Irish Legal System, into party politics, I actually think that the very move itself, reeks of desperation, and ACTUAL hypocrisy. FG were in power, while these repossessions were taking place; I just think its a pointless smear, it wont move the dial, and it shouldnt IMHO. It also sets a strange precident, because many TD's and politicians have backgrounds as barristers. But this is the first time, as far as i know, that their record of cases has ever entered the public sphere, to say nothing of an ongoing election.

    Happy to debate, discuss, so by all means lets continue. If some evidence can be offered to despute, or wreck, my take on this; please dont hold back. but from what I have gathered, i am confident in my opinion.

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 3,570 ✭✭✭Cyclingtourist


    Barrister or barista in another 48 hours it won't matter.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 111 ✭✭casey jones


    Is it not the case that a solicitor for the bank requests the services of a particular barrister who they believe has expertise in the field?

    I think the cab rank analogy applies to the "cab" only i.e. the barrister must accept the case. But the client can choose from any "cab" in the rank. Open to correction of course.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭liamtech


    Im not entirely sure what you mean here. If it is that, clients were selecting CC specifically from the 'rank' - that would indicate they had confidence in her as a barrister.

    TBH im entirely open to someone with serious legal knowledge, speaking on this, and correcting misconceptions that we may have.

    My understanding remains that CC would have been obliged to take cases, with little choice involved.

    TBH even if it were proved that she 'sought out' banks as clients; I still think its wrong to bring a barristers professional record into a national election.

    But i remain convinced that she receives the case, and barring conflicts of interest, she is obliged to serve her client to the best of her ability

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 79,468 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Catherine Connolly - 44% (+8)

    Heather Humphreys - 25% (nc)

    Jim Gavin - 10% (-2)

    Undecided - 21% (-6)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,651 ✭✭✭Fann Linn


    The smears appear to have backfired.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,586 ✭✭✭✭pjohnson


    Operation Smear pushing people to vote for Connolly shows that FFG are hilariously out of touch.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 11,046 ✭✭✭✭Pudsy33


    I'm sure someone will be along to tell us this is good for HH, actually.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,586 ✭✭✭✭pjohnson


    they need to get the official FFG spin memo first.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,991 ✭✭✭Bishop of hope


    Jesus, she needs all the undecideds. It'll be a short count.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,618 ✭✭✭jmcc


    To take a quote from "The Wild Geese", not even Jesus could get through that.

    Regards…jmcc



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,413 ✭✭✭corkie


    FINAL POLL - President

    Connolly leads among ALL age groups:

    18-34 Age Group

    Connolly (IND-Left): 64%
    Humphreys (FG): 19%
    Gavin (FF): 17%

    35-54 Age Group

    Connolly (IND-Left): 54%
    Humphreys (FG): 39%
    Gavin (FF): 7%

    55+ Age Group

    Connolly (IND-Left): 49%
    Humphreys (FG): 40%
    Gavin (FF): 11%

    NOTE: Smaller sample sizes result in higher margins of error. Treat with caution.

    Figures exclude undecideds.

    Via
    @REDCResearch

    Business Post ~ Archive.ph link!

    "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." ~ George Santayana
    "But that's balanced out by the fact that it's a mandate not to do very much." ~ Prof. Eoin O'Malley



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,774 ✭✭✭monseiur


    Napoleon once said that he preferred a lucky general to a good general leading his army…..or something to that effect.

    Connolly will be the next president and will ensure her place in history not for her talents, her track record, her vision for the job, her morals or her personality but for the simple reason that she got lucky.

    Lucky that Sinn Féin did not run a candidate, that Martin & FF did the mother of all cockups when they selected their man Gavin. Lucky that M. McGuiness had to withdraw and that FG selected HH Lucky that FFG gerrymandered the candidate selection process so other non party potential candidates could be nominated by co. councils etc. All of the above were out of Connolly's control yet played straight into her lap and she's about to reap the benefit.

    So boys & girls if you can't be good be lucky.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,792 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    The methodology of the poll has split the Gavin vote distribution 50/50 between Connolly and Humphreys. And although they must do that for statistical reasons, we all know that's nonsense. Humphreys will attract 90%+ of Gavin transfers.

    When they exclude everything else, they come up a 61 / 39 lead for Connolly, using that unrepresentative methodology above.

    Our internal polling puts it more at 55 / 45.

    And Connolly's base are a demographic from which turn out is generally lower, compared to Humphreys, whose voters tend to show up.

    So Connolly really will need an overperformance from her base to be sure of victory. Otherwise the game remains very much on.

    The expected poor turnout is very bad news indeed for Connolly.

    And she won't be helped by polls such as this, which give the outward impression that she is home and hosed, which brings yet further complacency to her cohort.

    A short count, you say? Not a bit of it.....



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,774 ✭✭✭monseiur


    oops a slight typo error — should read '' so other non party potential candidates could NOT be nominated………



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,413 ✭✭✭corkie


    @monseiur You can edit your earlier post?

    "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." ~ George Santayana
    "But that's balanced out by the fact that it's a mandate not to do very much." ~ Prof. Eoin O'Malley



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,523 ✭✭✭✭gmisk


    That poll is brutal for HH



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭Oscar_Madison
    #MEGA MAKE EUROPE GREAT AGAIN


    She is appalling - but so is HH and so was/is JG - this election for many is all about what least appalling candidate can you stomach voting No1-

    a presidential election should never be about sticking it to the government of the day - it should be about who do you believe will do the best job - but it’s easy to see why this one has become just that. Higgins brought people together from all sides of the political spectrum, both in the election itself and throughout his presidency - not everyone granted but many. I don’t see CC even trying to make an effort to do that- she’s been very clear where her loyalties lie- she’ll become the most divisive president we’ve had - both north and south



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