Presidential Election 2025

You may not have got a call at all, I certainly didn't and I always do surveys if someone calls.

I see you've now provided a follow on question from the poll, that 65% figure (more accurate than 12% not voting) to show the interest in the election. I still believe that turnout will probably be lower, around 50%

But the poll should show what would happen if only 65% went out to vote.

No it shouldn't as only 10% said definitely not voting so there is a possibility that they do vote. This tracks with the previous 12% saying the won't vote in original question.

We have been discussing this over the last 2 pages. The 12% does not indicate an 88% turnout at all. It indicates that 12% of people who were willing to take part in this poll are not going to vote.

It's safe to say that the majority of people who completed the polls have some sort of interest in the election. Those who have little to no interest or who never vote won't waste their time doing surveys.

They can only use the results that they obtained from willing participants of whom 12% said they won't vote. That in no way indicates we will have an 88% turn out.

The 2018 election had a turnout of 43.9%. The 2011 election was only 56.1%

A turnout of close to 65% would be extremely high. If this is becoming a referendum on the government, then the turnout could be up on the 2018 turnout. If it is a 2020 situation with a lot of younger and apolitical voters voting, then Connolly could do very well.

I guess it will break 50%, maybe 55%…

I think the timing and advertisement of the debates/interviews this time around has been awful. Everything on radio apart from one Virgin Media debate weeks ago with the 3 candidates and the Prime Time one next Tuesday (right?). I'm relatively on top of stuff but still missed one of them live.

I expect there's a significant portion of the electorate who hasn't heard from either candidate yet and most of the previous debates is irrelevant - just like 2011 I think the majority of voters will decide only after the big tv debate next Tuesday

That's the big one. CC wins this unless Heather clearly wins Tuesday and there's a gaffe/controversy like Sean Gallagher 3 days before the 2011 election on RTÉ

Yes it looks like it's done - but don't underestimate the importance of Tuesday night

Younger people voted because of a kind of fear of missing out.

I've no doubt that you'll be able to back this statement up with evidence.

anyway I don't think it matters, It will be President Connolly, due to low turnout.

But we will only find out on the day.

And if you really want to know, having spoken to two older FFers, they aren't willing to give a "blue shirt" the presidency. Many of Robinson's transfers would have been from older FGer unwilling to vote for an FFer.

It's not voter turnout though it's respondents to a question, extremely different.

As many of us has said it's only the people who were willing to take part in the poll. Most would have an interest in the election if they're willing to do a voluntary survey on it. It's no surprise that it's that high given this caveat.

If you want to find previous polls from past elections, fire ahead.

Compare the 2020 GE with the 2024 GE. Greta Thunberg and Green issues dominated the news cycle much as Gaza did in 2024 (a non-local issue unlike Housing and Health. Many of those affected by the Housing issue are in the younger demographics.). There was also the Housing issue and the Black and Tans/RIC commemoration screw-up by FG in 2020 (FG had been polling around 29% in December 2019. It only got 20.9% in the GE and lost 15 seats).

The whole Green thing has a kind of "do gooder" or virtue signalling element. Virtue signalling is prone to peer pressure. SF hadn't enough candidates to take advantage of this surge. It still gained 10.7% and 14 seats. Many of its transfers went to Left candidates and to the Greens. The Greens went from 2 seats to 12 seats. SF support is quite strong in younger demographics. The Gaza issue is also important with younger demographics and Connolly has a better track record on the issue than Humphreys.

Turnout in 2020 was 62.7%. Turnout in 2024 was 59.7%.

Want a negative version? Try the 2016 GE where the electorate was angry and the transfers on which Labour depended disappeared. Labour went from 37 seats in 2011 to 7 seats in 2016. Or take the Greens in 2024 and going from 12 seats to 1.

This is based on observation.

If only some political parties who have been in government could fix it, eh?

No. She is not correct, and neither are you.

I wonder again is there any actual benefit in trying to discuss this. But I will try, and will probably receive criticism for doing so.

First of all, no one has actually been convicted of war crimes. Yes we can point the ICJ, and state that a case has been brought against Israel. We can also state that, many of us, including me and the ICJ it seems, believe that war crimes have been committed during the Israel/Gaza War. But no one has been convicted. Certainly the buck should stop with Netanyahu, and I long for a day when he is stripped of his power, and forced to answer for what he has done.

What this has to do with Ursula von der Leyen, is utterly beyond me. The EU has trade relations with Israel, as does Ireland BTW, and many other countries. UvdL has walked the political tightrope on the issue of Israel, and regardless of what we may justifiably think, the world is polarized on the issue of Israel/Palestine. I think Ireland is on the right side of history here, as do many in Ireland, and i welcome our stance.

But UvdL is head of a parliament which covers the entire European Union. Some states like Ireland and Spain, et al, take a very hard stance in their condemnation of Israel. Other countries such as the UK and Germany, are more divided on this polarizing issue. Yes the UK will recognize Palestine, but its a contentious issue in the HoC. There are also states within the EU, such as Czechia, which are far more pro-Israeli in terms of their policy on the conflict at hand. UvdL cannot afford to fall into either camp. She must tow a moderate line, which is why she has, in equal measure, criticized the attacks of October 7th, recognized Israels 'right to defend itself, while also moved to shore up support for the union as a whole to sanction Tel Aviv. These are not the actions of someone who 'stands shoulder to shoulder with war criminals' - They are the actions of a politician, trying desperately to maintain common purpose with the nations she represents. It can also be called diplomacy, and you should now grapple with the fact that the candidate who you support, has no aptitude for this skill. UvdL is being attacked as we speak by Left Wing Eurosceptic blocks within the European Parliament, who all bear a striking similarity to Connolly btw. And who also throw out nonsensical positions about the EU being a party to genocide.

@MFPM im happy to get into a serious debate on this, and I will respond to each criticism or point that you make. But please try to back up what you are saying with facts. I think the UvdL/War-Criminal topic is a side show anyway, and just something which is to be 'wheeled out' to back up Connolly's Anti-EU stances. But it goes way beyond CC's support for Gaza - its at the core of CC's views that her kind of left-wing activism is opposed to the mere concept of the European Union. Its old school Bennism, and we can debate it if you want. But soundbites will only take you so far, so do please respond, attack my points, and lets get into it!

By the way, stating that 'UvdL has stood shoulder to shoulder with war criminals'? This is, ACTUALLY, a REAL SMEAR! Just for anyone keeping count of the so-called smears that are doing the rounds - this is what a smear looks like.👍️🙄