Presidential Election 2025

C.C now 1/10 with some bookies. Looks to be a forgone conclusion.

Then its not a random poll. Or the poll should also point that of the 2000 people polled 50% refused to take part.

But if you can show me that the contact 2400 people please do.

Caring more about Protesting against Israel over Gaza, then they do about getting into Government

Blaming 'the west' for the crimes of Autocratic states in the east

Attacking the EU and European Allies for behaving pragmatically, and shoring up their defenses

The way you couch the above - as 'attacks on' or 'blaming' or 'caring more' just consolidates my view that you are no longer on the left.

• Connolly simply cares about Gaza and militarisation and war mongering. You can do that and still want to be in government.
  
• She doesn't 'blame' the West (defining it as 'The West' is a trope tbh), she is pointedly 'critical' of some elements in the West.

• And again, she is 'critical' of some EU policy and some actions by European allies.

Best bit of campaign news Humphreys has had all week.

Thanks Paul!

The response rate is an important factor. The pollsters want to get a sample that they think reflects the electorate in age/geography/social demographics. The response rate was a very important issue in the absolute mess that the pollsters made of the 2016 US presidential election and it was mentioned in the analysis by the organisation of polling companies in its post-mortem of what went wrong. They were simply missing the people who voted for Trump. There's an even earlier example where one of the first opinion polls in the US (1930s, I think) was carried out by telephone. It gave the wrong result because most people didn't have a telephone. A high number of non-responses can indicate a very pissed off electorate.

Well firstly, you are not the gatekeeper on what constitutes a left wing supporter. You dont get to 'rule me out' of this bloc @FrancieBrady - but you are displaying a tendency to eat your own, which is very worrying.

• Connolly simply cares about Gaza and militarisation and war mongering. You can do that and still want to be in government.

Yes you can, and im not saying otherwise. You can hold strong opinions on Gaza, but you can do so from a credible position within an organized left wing party. And you can do so pragmatically, without accussing our allies of war mongering, which they are not doing. There isnt a serious credible political party in Ireland which remains in support of Israel. The whole country is united. But its CC, and her clique that are apportioning blame on the EU? And its totally disproportionate. Yes Israel has been backed up for decades by the US, and we need to highlight this. But its not credible to attack the EU on this. Israel Gaza is a contentious topic, especially now that Trump is in power. It needs to be debated delicately, and as more and more European and western Countries recognize Palestine, we can accomplish something. But we do so politically, in debates with our allies, not screaming that they are all war mongers.

• She doesn't 'blame' the West (defining it as 'The West' is a trope tbh), she is pointedly 'critical' of some elements in the West.

Ah Francie, honestly. If a large meteor hit South America, Connolly would undoubtedly find a way to make it the fault of the West. She apportions blame for most crisis squarly on the shoulders of the west. She blames Russia for Ukraine, as an afterthought to criticizing the EU, NATO and 'western imperialism'. Rather than see German Re-arming as being a consequence of increased Russian agression, she is claiming they are doing it to BOLSTER THEIR ECONOMY! And create a 'European Military Industrial Complex. Its a nonsense position

I must have been out the day the pollster called.

I still think that with that sample size they needed a follow on question for all participants to question their interest in the campaign, this would at least let you figure out that an 88% turnout is highly unlikely.

For example if 50% HH's supports say that they have no interest, you can then say the likelihood of them turning out to vote is lower than for CC's.

Otherwise much like this election it is a non-poll.

Im happy to leave it, but there is no place for a QED here. You have a version of events, and positions which are flawed in my view. Iv offered pushback on these, while also raising the issue of how the left must organize, and on left wing vote management. We never really got into the weeds on that.

But agreed, on abandoning the discussion. Nothing to be gained from it. looks like CC has more or less, won. So il offer congratulations in advance on that, with the caveat that i remain worried about the future of the left.

But yet again isn’t this about impact of what she says - the interpretation of the communication by the receiver - the collated outcome from all of these quotes forms people’s opinions of her - I don’t blame people for coming to those conclusions - but then again, I honestly don’t think CC cares- and she doesn’t need people to clarify on her behalf either - she’s aware of just how her message is received by different audiences - if she wasn’t happy she’d change what she says.

A pollster tried to survey me once. :) Seriously though, opinion polls are generally meant to sell newspapers and advertising. (Matt Cooper said something similar on the Paths To Power podcast).

The usual excuses seem to have been offered on the referenda with McDowell's intervention changing the outcome. Don't remember seeing any real analysis of why they got things so badly wrong.

The 2016 Trump election was a disaster for pollsters because they just were not reaching the people who voted for Trump. Many of them were using phone polling. Phone based surveys may be the most problematic. Some of the panel based pollsters may offer incentives for people responding to the polls.

Being completely cynical about it, much of what appears as poll analysis by the polcorrs is really Astrology for people who claim not to believe in it. This is because opinion polls are snapshots of public opinon at a given time. They are not predictions. When people start to treat them as predictions, there are surprises when reality disagrees.

Polling in Ireland is typically not too bad historically. I wouldn't compare to the US which is a toxic divided hole at the moment.

However, the amount of people that are classed as undecided is huge so it's hard to get an accurate picture. A bit of dirt in the final week could be decisive.

The potential for a low turnout could be a factor too. It's hardly getting any discussion where I work, whereas previous elections would. Most people haven't much interest in this election I feel.

She walks a political tightrope on this issue, as do many credible western politicians. While acknowledging the 'Israel Has a Right to Defend itself' stance, she has also been highly critical of Israeli actions, and is/was negotiating a common EU response toward sanctioning Tel Aviv

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/9/10/eu-chief-pledges-action-aimed-at-halting-israels-war-on-gaza

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgr4nj7405o

I really dont know what anyone expects in relation to this topic. It is a delicate matter to deal with. Ireland remains fairly well alligned on the issue, and has been highly critical of Israel. Others elsewhere tend to be more polarized on the topic.

But for every Pro Palestinian position, which is for condemnation of Israel, and a Two State Solution. As well as, condemnation of genocide

There will be a Pro-Israel Spokesperson who will argue on the basis of Hamas attacks on civilians, hostage taking, and the use of human shields. He/She will continue to argue that Hamas must be extirpated from the region, regardless of cost.

Its a contentious topic, and i fully expect von der Leyen to have adopted a middle of the road policy. Viewing this as being Pro-Israeli is just politically illiterate. If you want to attack the Ultra right wing in Israel, along with their enablers, you must redirect your criticism toward the US, and in particular the Pro-Israeli Christian right, who have funded settlements in disputed territories.

Attacking the EU, when it is actually trying to negotiate a possible unified position, on condemning Israel, is nonsensical. You could competently state they are not doing enough, and thats a valid position to have.

But CC goes beyond that, claiming the EU, and UvdL is standing 'shoulder to shoulder with war criminals'.

The “12% will not vote” statistic is standing out a mile for me, as a complete nonsense, which makes me skeptical of the whole poll - not that CC isn’t ahead of HH- she certainly is by a likely comfortable margin - but that’s just ridiculous- 88% turnout, or even if all the “don’t knows” become “will not votes ” that’s still a predicted 70% voter turnout ?