Presidential Election 2025

According to the IT analysis, 22% of FG party supporters are voting for Connolly. That is a bad sign. Kelly would probably have been able to enthuse FG supporters. Humphreys shows no such ability. What happened to FG? Enda Kenny was a sharp backroom operator. He was replaced by the useless Varadkar who led FG to one of its worst GE defeats in its history. And Varadkar was replaced by the even more useless Harris. Now, almost a quarter of FG supporters are voting for Connolly. This election might spark some reorganisation in FG.

The “issues” she was tackled on were, ironically, part of the reason some of the parties were supporting her in the first place - you’re not going to get middle ground with CC- it’s part of her appeal to her supporters - they likely don’t agree with some of her stances but they’re not voting for these things - the media were dreadful in terms of the debates- I’ve watched all the TV debates and many of the 1-1 interviews- it was pathetic that every single one was a repeat of the last. I don’t enquiring once or twice- fine - I don’t think anyone would object to that - but EVERYTIME- it became a joke- and she simply gained support as a result as she was seen as persecuted

But HH was never going to get the groundswell of support CC had - she’s just not “likeable”- CC actually has likability, away from her policies she seems “nice”- very hard to say that about HH

I think CC was boosted by the smear campaign, without that she would not be so far ahead.

I never saw it as a “smear” campaign - they were valid questions- but she was asked to repeatedly answer them and pretty much gave the same standard reply

- I wasn’t mad on her replies either, but once I could see that was the only reply I was going to get from her, I made up my mind on who to vote for. I thought it was more bad journalism than some sort of attempted smear - but I guess if you’re for CC, you may look differently on it as quite simply, any criticism whatsoever of CC here on this thread was met with posts that screamed “outrage” “hurt” etc etc so not surprised the “smear” angle is used - reactions are very emotional when it comes to CC

"I never saw it as a “smear” campaign - they were valid questions- but she was asked to repeatedly answer them and pretty much gave the same standard reply "

You're right , they were valid questions. But when they were answered it was time for journalist to move on and ask other, perhaps more important, questions. I was astonished to see Kathie Hannon quiz Connolly again on the Dail pass question/Eirigi. How many ways can you ask the same question again and again. After a while it does becomes a smear rather than a desire for answers.

I suspect we will see doubling down on these smear tactics from FG. And I do think they have had an effect, not enough to move the dial to Humphreys but perhaps enough to move voters from Connolly to the 'don't know' or 'will not vote' category.

FF leaving the question of voting for Gavin open, rather than advise their supporters to not vote for a withdrawn candidate, is creating another option for voters which must affect the two running candidates. It is hard to gauge what voters for Gavin really want, the only vocal group of these voters seem to want another election but perhaps there are some FF voters who just refuse to countenance voting for anyone else.

The headlines suggesting that Connolly has it won will also be a danger for Connolly, with some voters , especially young voters, staying away thinking their votes are no longer needed. It does seem to be Connolly's to lose now but "a week in a long time in politics"

”Young” voters are notorious for staying away from the polling booth- AND- older voters outweigh young voters 2:1 apparently -BUT- I think CC has a big following who will come out and actually vote regardless of age-AND- I don’t think HH has such a following - I can see FF and FG voters staying away in their droves - quite possibly a coronation for CC as others have just given up

Kelly would have won this no problem. Having someone who can speak, isn't annoying and doesn't have Connolly's baggage is all anyone wants at this stage.

I'm not convinced; he reeks pale, male & stale to me. You seem to underestimate the breadth of Connolly's appeal, which is apparently just as strong among soft-left/liberal floating voters as MDH's. The only mooted FG candidate who might have really resonated with that cohort, not just as 'the lesser of two evils', is Frances Fitzgerald IMO…

The opinion polls, depending on accuracy levels, are fairly stark for those of us who wish to avoid a Connolly presidency. That said, I’m going to just throw out my opinions on why we are here, and what to make of the situation.

Catherine Connolly’s Decisive Lead

There is little doubt in my mind that Connolly will win the election. Given her lead has doubled since the first three way poll of 3rd October, it’s nearly impossible to see a reversal at this stage. It would require the mother of all ‘October Surprises’ to swing a large enough portion of votes away from Connolly, toward Humphreys. In terms of why this has happened, I think id start with stating how horrendous this election has been from before the opening. Fine Gael lost their preferred candidate when McGuinness dropped out, and their selection of Humphreys was clearly mistaken. Fianna Fail did even worse, by selection a ‘celebrity’ candidate, whose campaign collapsed toward the end of the first week. The associated rent scandal was the stated reason, but Jim Gavin was not a credible candidate for the presidency, and had he remained, his only impact may have been to force a 2nd count and redistribution.

In contrast to the above carnage, Connolly has been campaigning for months, and growing a very enthusiastic base of support. Within this coalition we could argue that large chunks of voters will seek to punish FFG, by voting for someone who entirely opposed to them ideologically. This block will only have increased in numbers, after a fairly stark and depressing Budget 2026. Many who perhaps disagree with some of Connolly’s positions, will be more enthusiastic about her candidacy due to the limited roll she will ‘technically’ have on policy, and the chance to deliver a blow to the Government is irresistible. Finally, her remaining opponent is herself a very poor candidate, and it’s easy to speculate that opposition to Connolly in favour of HH, remains unenthusiastic.

Heather Humphreys and the Fine Gael collapse

Humphreys has failed to galvanise support among the electorate, be they undecideds, or Gavin supporting Fianna Fail-ers. In stark contrast to Mairead mcGuinness who is a powerful politician and debater, Humphreys is below average on communication, and lacks all charisma. Her lack of ability with the Irish language simply added insult to injury, but even leaving that aside, HH displayed herself as a poor, below average political lightweight. In most of the debates we have had up to now, she was always beaten by CC, even when she confronted the later about ongoing fiascos and scandal. Her campaign was not equipped to deal with Connolly in a one on one confrontation; IMHO, it’s clear that FG’s thinking had been for Gavin to remain in the race, build up some support, which would then transfer to Humphreys and push her past Connolly. That hasn’t happened, and Humphreys failed to make an adequate impression on the election cycle, which has allowed CC to push well ahead of her.

My Conclusion: it’s over bar the shouting

It would require the mother of all catastrophes at this point to change the likely outcome of the election. From my point of view, I remain concerned that we are about to elect a candidate that is unsuitable for the role of President. But I am realistic that, barring a meltdown, that is what we are about to do. Had other more credible candidates ran, we may have seen a serious challenge mounted against Connolly, but the opposition to her is low calibre and poorly coordinated.

2020 proved that when younger demographics decide to vote, they change the outncome of elections. If, and it is a big 'if', Connolly has that kind of momentum, it is game over for Humphreys.

Strange view again

You see everything through the prism of FF FG messing it up. Has it occurred to you that the electorate want a President like Connolly?
You have 14 years of MDH and his popularity has not waned to factor in here.

Connolly hit the front from the start and has not had to look back.

ooooooh!

She clearly said it at least twice https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/courts/presidential-candidate-heather-humphreys-sued-for-defamation-by-td-paul-murphy/a357970273.html

relates to comments made about Paul Murphy’s role in an anti-water charges protest eleven years ago.

Out of the country for a few days so haven't the time to engage on thread as much but, I think you need to own your political position more....

those of us who wish to avoid a Connolly presidency

You've made a conscious choice to side firmly against the broad left to vote for the most right wing candidate to enter the race.

As I said in a previous engagement with you, you've capitulated to the absurd media campaign against her and while you prevaricated early on you threw your lot in with Fine Gael, Alan Kelly, Mary Harney, the Daily Mail, Ivan Yates etc....

Not as such. But using language in such as reckless way in a high-profile forum about an incident the courts have ruled on is not going to impress anybody who takes the presidency seriously, even those with no time for Paul Murphy who find his count on the day in question reprehensible…

Agreed, Kelly seems like he has no skeletons in the closet, is pro-EU, was a very progressive GAA president and is elected as MEP easily in any election he ran in. He is held in good esteem by most people.

Unless FG feared losing their MEP seat in the by election if Kelly was elected president?