Presidential Election 2025

I’m not getting the 12% “won’t vote”- I would have thought this will be a low turnout election?

Assuming CC’s supporters will actually vote on the day, I could see her winning by a greater margin - but I don’t understand the “won’t vote” - would we even get 50% electoral turnout for this election?

Another problem for Humphreys according to Damian Loscher's (Ipsos B&A) analysis:

"An interesting observation from Thursday’s poll is the lack of enthusiasm among Fine Gael supporters for their candidate. The party’s voters will mostly give Humphreys their first preference (56 per cent), but leakage to Connolly (22 per cent) is significant."

McGuinness dropping out was an incredible loss for FG.

FF especially have to reflect on their choice of candidate, a disaster. FG were forced into change midstream and it looks like Heather is just bringing in around the support of the FG percentage of votes, not picking up anything outside of that. CChoovering up everyone else even FF. All in all when you look at it, the govt parties have had a disasterous campaign. Connolly is a very capable, clever politician, is affable people friendly. Has defended every accusation thrown at her in her own inimitable way. She has come across as sincere and you feel her views are her real beliefs that she is committed too and not compromised by any outside influences. This seems to have struck a chord with voters. Agree with her take or not, and I don't, she is the candidate that by far the most voters have taken to.

That silo problem (appealing only to FG voters) didn't exist with McGuinness. Martin screwed up with his candidate. FF may be in a much better position after a Connolly win as FG will take most of the criticism.

I don't know, FG were unlucky and had to change horses, I don't think they had anyone who would have brought in much more. Maybe Sean Kelly with his GAA, more traditional Irish approach? The OO connections certainly hasn't helped HH.

FF fcuked up hugely, even if there were no rent payment controversy, Gavin was a disaster, totally out of his depth and it showed.

I think McGuinness vs Connolly would have been way closer than with HH - but it would not have been a huge surprise to see CC ahead of even Mairead.

It would probably have altered SF's decision too. The support for Connolly was expected to top out around 17% (party support for SocDems/PBP/Labour). Three things went wrong for FFG. McGuinness dropping out (obviously), FG selecting Humphreys and FF imposing Gavin with his rent problem unresolved.

With McGuinness in the election, SF might have run its own candidate and would probably have lost as McGuinness would have got a lot of support from FF voters. She would have been a much stronger candidate than Humphreys. Without SF's backing, McGuinness would probably have polled much better than Connolly.

So many things have gone wrong at the same time for FFG. I think that FF might not have run a candidate and Martin would have reluctantly endorsed McGuinness had she not dropped out. His dithering pointed to that. McGuinness would easily have had voters thinking of her as presidential. She is much better at dealing with the media than Humphreys. If she was the FFG candidate, she probably would have won. Would SF have backed Connolly with McGuinness in the race? It is an interesting question. What has emerged almost by accident is a Left/Right axis by default in this election and part of the Right (FF) has collapsed already.

The bang of entitlement off a McGuinness campaign would have grown tiresome very quickly too, it was getting that way before she pulled out.

The danger for Connolly now is that she is so far ahead, some of her support stay home thinking their vote isn't needed.

As someone who just doesn’t like CC, I never saw that as a major issue per se- but I found it “unusual” that she would have chosen such a person in the first place - Shirley there were any number of PhD suitable students who would have jumped at that role? Why someone with a conviction for guns in the SCC? I thought it bizzare but it wasn’t what swayed me away from CC- I just don’t like her politics and world view- it’s that simple.

I do hope the poll is correct, because what its really saying is Humphreys 53% Connolly 47%.

Because almost everyone that votes for Jim Gavin is going to give HH their number 2. She'll get 100% of transfers. The don't knows are mostly all voting for HH. And those that are spoiling their vote are only really joking. When it comes to being in the booth, nearly 100% of them are voting for HH.

How can you not see that?

On the drive into work this morning, I noted all the JG posters are still up. I think it’s disgraceful that he has withdrawn yet his posters are still up. Classic FF.