Presidential Election 2025

Both counties have terribly inadequate armies for their needs.

Ireland can't even patrol our own skies and are getting the RAF to do it. Same goes for radar. We currently don't have enough crew to effectively man our seas either.

Armies are not just about fighting fake threats from Russia.

The Ukraine war will be resolved on the battlefield alright

The economic battle field

As it stands though China has enough demand for oil to keep Russia’s war going ad infinitum

I was actually in Russia a couple of months ago,people on the street believe in Putin and whilst they are friendly to foreigners,they will tell you a much different narrative to what you hear here in the west

Shops were full of western goods by the way

I think Connolly’s problem thus far is the news cycle,she keeps adding to it in an environment where her ad libs are controversial but not popular controversial

I said earlier in this thread that the back street drivers in her campaign might need stronger crash helmets and wasn’t I right

Doubtless someone is digging in the ditch to try find something new on Heather Humphreys,to help Connolly,the optimum time to throw it out there being around the 17th when it’s too late to defend it

Plenty Gavin posters out near me already but not many Connolly-not much sign yet of the richest party in Ireland loosening their purse strings for her,this may speak volumes for what they think the outcome might be

That is what the majority of the electorate want though. Even if the ROI did increase defence spending drastically. it would still be woefully inadequate to defend the state from invasion etc.

Plus you know full well that the opposition would be “up in arms” if the government made cuts in healthcare/social welfare to enable increase defence spending.

Also the RAF defacto patrol Irish skies.
https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/2023/05/08/who-protects-irish-skies-the-secret-air-defence-deal-that-dates-back-to-the-cold-war/

I thought you of all people would be keen for “The Brits” to have to defend Ireland due to the Islands geographical position and being the soft underbelly of Europe. It is free defence from another nation. The British military is far superior than Ireland’s. Ireland doesn’t have to pay for that merely maintain friendly diplomatic relations with the British.

Ireland’s best and cheapest power is soft power diplomacy, cultural ties with nations etc. That is just common sense.

That is what the majority of the electorate want though. Even if the ROI did increase spending it would still be woefully inadequate to defend the state from invasion etc.

Plus you know full well that the opposition would be “up in arms” if the government made cuts in healthcare/social welfare to increase defence spending.

Well I know what Connolly says about properly funding the DF and I agree with her:

The Defence Forces remain underfunded, under-resourced, and its members underpaid, who are left to serve and live in settings that are far below the standard they deserve. That is unacceptable, and it is long past time for change.

Re: The RAF - I'm a pragmatist as well as a republican.
This deal/agreement is mutually beneficial so I don't have a problem with it tbh. The 'Brits' are not defending 'us' as we ar not under threat of attack, they seek to defend themselves. We have other agreements with the 'Brits', that I also have no issue with if they are observed.

*You might want to review your rather cliched view of people like me @gormdubhgorm

Then why the implied criticism of FF and FG when they are just being pragmatic too? In my view it is the correct course of action. As increased defence spending would be nothing more than expensive symbolism. And STILL ineffective to defend the ROI. Large coastal territory, large seas. Impossible for Ireland to defend that effectively no matter how much is spent. Peacekeeping is Ireland’s thing, peacekeeping forces not really ones for defence. Pragmatism.

Is that not a contradiction in terms re Connolly against increase defence spending of Germany?. Comparing it to the 1930’s. Yet wanting the Irish defence forces to increase spending?

Makes no sense to me. Plus Germany is much nearer Russia than Ireland is. Germany obviously a much stronger country militarily than Ireland ever will be.

To me cultural ties, Irishness, diplomacy, Ireland’s world reputation - are this country’s most practical form of defence.

If Connolly was smarter politically she would play up on all that soft power cultural ties stuff. Didn’t one of the previous POI campaigns that won lean on the “Irish diaspora” line?

That is what Connolly should be going for. Instead of the anti imperialist lines. If she wants to get some of that undecided vote she has to go that way.

As well as that trying to wrestle some of the older female vote from HH. Going to country women associations etc, basket weaving and talking about the nicest way to make buns/bread. All that craic.

Very true. Greens and Greenpeace ship etc. The Greens are a VERY idealistic party. With many very idealistic supporters. Lots of pacifists as well. Lots of contradictions if @blanch152 is a Green.
If I was to guess I would say @blanch152 is going Jim Gavin no1. Defence forces civil service, wants treble lock removed etc. Plus there is the GAA grà. And HH number 2. Because of the obvious antipathy towards Connolly her worldview - and underneath that a strong dislike of SF who backed her, albeit reluctantly.

I was thinking what another poster commented on that practically there could be transfers between Connolly and Humphreys. On the basis of gender alone.

I can’t see many male voters who give Connolly no1 going for HH no2 as they are not politically aligned. Some young male Dubs might go Connolly no1, Gavin no2. But it won’t be that common nationally. I think most males who vote Connolly will just have her no1. Not even bothering with a 2nd preference.

Id agree with you RE soft power. It has always been our strongest card. That said, its why chosing the right president (and avoiding the wrong one) is so important. We need to remain the 'Land of a thousand Welcomes' - and avoid appearing too Rogue or Radical.

The entire neautrality debate is going to come up again and again. Especially now in an increasingly unstable world. With Trump dithering on NATO at times, its clear to see why European Countries and NATO members are keen to bolster themselves. We must not under-estimate the shock we all felt when Russia invaded Ukraine. I know there have been conflicts and localized wars for many years. But Russia-Ukraine is quite different. A large Autocratic country, declaring a clear intention to annex a smaller democratic one. No im not saying Ukraine is the perfect example of a modern democracy. But comparing it to Russia is comparing chalk with cheese. You simply have to look at Russian arguments for the war; Ukraine isnt really a country, the people are Russian anyway so, and of course the 'NAZIS under the bed in Kyiv' nonsense.

In terms of Irelands neutrality, i would say there are significantly differing opinions across the board. I would never really support joining NATO, but with said organization floundering at times, thanks to MAGA Isolationism - i could see a 'Mutual European Defence Pact'. Hypothetically, such a pact could be formed, whether NATO continues or not. This 'alliance' could be covered by Frances Nuclear deterent, perhaps Britains too (would depend greatly on whether Farage wins the next election).

I think its an overdue debate. With strong voices on all sides. If we had a number of referenda on the topic.

• Constitutional prohibition on conscription, and a guarantee on Ireland only having a professional volunteer army
• Joining the Alliance for mutual defensive reasons only. irelands membership would not endorse pre-emption as a doctrine
• Acknowledgement of the supremacy of the UN for non european interventions. That is, we join this hypthetical alliance for mutual defensive reasons. For deployment of forces outside of this remit, United Nations authorization is required.

I think if the above conditions were met, it would be worthy of discussion and debate. Even as a deterent aimed toward Russia/Belarus, it is something i would struggle to disagree with.

The problem in Ireland, is that such an endevour would be screamed down by many activist class lefties. I always find this infuriating. The above, hypothetical as it is, would be a NON Nato European based initiative - but i would expect a chorus of shouts that it represents American and European Warmongering

Who is 'we'?

And well done on responding to a post criticising the consensus led elements of the media with a consensus trope deployed whenever somebody is critical of them:

whacky soviet style geopolitical views are up front and centre

I fully support a properly funded and resourced Defence Force. Always did.

Not to be confused with a ridiculous push to have an army capable of being in NATO and the spending required for that.