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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2025 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST
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31-08-2025 06:38PM#1
Mod Note:This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onward for Autumn 2025.
If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved
Thanks
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I hope this is not my final time to open a new season thread here on boards as the cutoff date ends before we step into Winter. Summer 2025 was generally warm to very warm, however as we all know this warmth ended a week ago with a significant pattern change back to the form horse with a very unsettled Atlantic setup. The next 7 to 10 days looks unsettled to say the least with low pressure either over us or close by most days with showers or longer outbreaks of rain.
Looking into FI the GFS 12z shows a nice ridge developing around mid month but a big dumpload of salt with this as it is very far away and an unsettled September from start to finish could easily happen this year.
Unsettled all the way to September 12th, then on the 13th we see a ridge building from the Azores.
By the 16th this ridge firmly over Ireland which could deliver finally some settled conditions after a very unsettled couple of weeks but do we believe it!.
The GFS 6z ensemble run paints a very unsettled and cool period coming up with not much support for September warmth or settled conditions. This is the most unsettled ensemble run I've seen since Winter 2024/2025, not what we want to see.
My main wish is not weather related but for Boards to survive and make it past the autumn into the Winter season of 2025/2026 and well beyond.
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No change in the current modeling for first half of September, big rainfall spikes for tomorrow so a very wet day tomorrow followed a pet day on Thursday and after that looks wet with plenty of rain or showers around most days, also looks fairly cool with temperatures generally below average over the coming 2 weeks. Not seeing much wiggle room here for high pressure and one last blast of summer warmth.
Maybe hints of a dryer trend from mid month.
ECM no different either, perhaps even wetter than the GFS with no drying trend mid month.
An Atlantic dominated September looks very likely this year. Anyone looking for late summer warmth is better off booking a holiday to the Mediterranean than waiting and hoping for charts to flip to a settled outlook over Ireland.
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September is generally a fine month and often better than August but not this year, it’s not a month that’s normally dominated by low pressure. We seem to be stuck in this pattern and I doubt if there’s any way out for the foreseeable … autumn here we come!
I normally give summer a chance up to the equinox but …..
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I wonder if we'll get some kind of settled period, brief or not, later. There's very few Septembers I can think of without one. Even September 2008 which was one of the more poor this century had a predominantly settled second half.
This doesn't look that different to the above.
Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/
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All the models showing some form of disturbed weather over Ireland / UK around Sun/ Mon next. Early days but the key component is a wave forming along a very fast jet moving from Canada across to these Islands, showing a deep low /storm deepening on approach, some models showing it deepen more in to the UK and on in to Europe. Looks very wet for a time . Will see if it keeps its general track.
Maybe the first storm of the season ?
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’a very fast jet from Canada’ above says.
I wonder what’s the cause of this when N America hasn’t even cooled down yet?
Is the Arctic getting cold unusually early this year?
edit: nothing unusual in the Arctic on this chart, the only storms I’ve ever seen in Sept have been ex tropical so whatever is firing up the jet is a mystery to me? Sryan said something recently about SSTs rapidly cooling in the N Atlantic so I guess that’s the explanation.
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Big differences between gfs and Ecmwf regarding a possible storm Sunday/ Monday.
Ecmwf showing a stormy night on the West coast, but not as bad as recent op runs.
Gfs has the a weaker low well out to the Northwest, just a windy night no storm whatsoever.
Ecmwf and Gfs op runs are low pressure dominated with Ecm throwing out a barnstormer at day11 into the Irish Sea.
This chart obviously should be taken with a large pinch of salt but shows there could be a fair bit of wet and windy weather to come in the next while with any sign of high pressure getting pushed further back into September.
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Juat looking at the precipitation forecast for the next week and I've never seen this before. 454mm for Mullaghmore in 7 days! But even seeing much of the westernmost fringes of the coast of Donegal getting 250-300 is very unusual. Other models are also showing a very wet 7 days for the immediate West coast but ECM is an outlier with these numbers. For reference, Markree Castle and Finner Camp are the two closest stations to here and this is 4 to 5 times their average monthly rainfall. Interesting to see if this comes to pass.
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Some indications of things settling down a little for the end of the month? The main models all going for a rise in pressure and very little precipitation for the last week of September, although GFS and ECM diverging around the 26th. Both are showing some flimsy ridging from the Azores to Scandinavia but there's an Atlantic barrage of lows trying their best to break it down. ECM has a more entrenched high up to the end of its run but GFS has it weaker so the low pressure wins through with a sizable low pressure system off to our west on October 1st. IF ECM's modeling comes to pass we may be in with a shout of a week or two of something more settled.
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Before we get to the end of the month we better get the boats out for this coming week and weekend. A really wet few days ahead for all areas south of what's basically a line from Dublin to Limerick, with the weekend looking particularly bad which is why I've put this in the FI thread. The American models not going for anywhere near these totals but this is fairly strong model consensus for the next 7 days. We really need a bit of a dry spell before mid-October because after that there will be little drying and it will be a long stretch until March.
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After Saturday high pressure will start to build nearby, with the models now favouring a high pretty much smack down on us. By no means a warmer high which some may be looking for still, but very useable weather with sunshine and light winds as the isobars are well spread! ☀️ ☀️
Latest Ecmwf and Gfs runs at day7
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This week still looking quite nice considering we are now 3 weeks into Autumn, with very little rain expected out till Friday
Uncertainty creeps in around next weekend when some model runs show Tropical storm Gabrielle’s remnants approaching us, like on 0z Ecm
As Robwindstorm mentioned, model volatility is high when these storms form out in the Atlantic so it’s tough to give any certainty after day 5 or 6. At the moment Gfs is favouring the block over Europe to win out with Ecm slightly more inclined to favour the Atlantic winning out.
With the sun losing strength quickly through September, most high pressure as the year progresses could be more in the way of the dreaded anticyclonic gloom like we seen so much of last winter. For this reason I would love to see the high stick around and try and salvage what is left of this soaking September so far. ☀️
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Huge uncertainty after Thurs with the remnants of Gabrielle being projected in vastly different positions in the Atlantic heading in our general direction around the weekend, although could dissipate after the Azores, even without it ECM showing a different weather system brining wet and windy weather on Fri/ Sat. UKMO tamer this evening after originally showing stormy, Can expect huge model variation with models grappling with an ex hurricane /extra tropical storm in the mix.
Post edited by Meteorite58 on11 -
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Atlantic hurricane season is starting to get its act together and wreaking havoc with the weather models.
Humberto is likely to become a hurricane overnight tonight and is the one we need to keep an eye on. Latest modelling shows Humberto missing the Us coast, and heading across the Atlantic
Some models show it being picked up by the jet and have some Nw Europe in the firing line
Icon and Gfs
With all that is happening in the North Atlantic, FI is as early as ever. Gfs and Ecmwf ensembles reflect this
With the recent northerly spell our waters to our west have cooled. This would make it tough for weather systems to be at full force once they reach us.
Will be interesting to see what Humberto does over the next week but I’d imagine models will continue to struggle..
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ECM showing the remnants of Humberto passing relatively close to our NW next Saturday now, although GFS has nudged it further north and it's much less intense. Fairly deep low getting as low as 948hPa with a very tight gradient, but the worst of the winds staying well out to see for now. A slight southerly nudge in the direction of the jet though could bring this one to our shores. Definitely one to keep an eye on.
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Starting to feature all right adocholiday, GFS was stronger last couple of runs for Ireland but as you say tracking further away on latest run, ECM the reverse, tracking closer on latest run giving stronger winds but nothing too strong at this stage. GEM showing similar track .Interesting to see it develop, some very wet charts also out to +240hrs.
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