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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2025 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST
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31-08-2025 06:38PM#1
Mod Note:This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onward for Autumn 2025.
If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved
Thanks
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I hope this is not my final time to open a new season thread here on boards as the cutoff date ends before we step into Winter. Summer 2025 was generally warm to very warm, however as we all know this warmth ended a week ago with a significant pattern change back to the form horse with a very unsettled Atlantic setup. The next 7 to 10 days looks unsettled to say the least with low pressure either over us or close by most days with showers or longer outbreaks of rain.
Looking into FI the GFS 12z shows a nice ridge developing around mid month but a big dumpload of salt with this as it is very far away and an unsettled September from start to finish could easily happen this year.
Unsettled all the way to September 12th, then on the 13th we see a ridge building from the Azores.
By the 16th this ridge firmly over Ireland which could deliver finally some settled conditions after a very unsettled couple of weeks but do we believe it!.
The GFS 6z ensemble run paints a very unsettled and cool period coming up with not much support for September warmth or settled conditions. This is the most unsettled ensemble run I've seen since Winter 2024/2025, not what we want to see.
My main wish is not weather related but for Boards to survive and make it past the autumn into the Winter season of 2025/2026 and well beyond.
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Comments
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No change in the current modeling for first half of September, big rainfall spikes for tomorrow so a very wet day tomorrow followed a pet day on Thursday and after that looks wet with plenty of rain or showers around most days, also looks fairly cool with temperatures generally below average over the coming 2 weeks. Not seeing much wiggle room here for high pressure and one last blast of summer warmth.
Maybe hints of a dryer trend from mid month.
ECM no different either, perhaps even wetter than the GFS with no drying trend mid month.
An Atlantic dominated September looks very likely this year. Anyone looking for late summer warmth is better off booking a holiday to the Mediterranean than waiting and hoping for charts to flip to a settled outlook over Ireland.
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September is generally a fine month and often better than August but not this year, it’s not a month that’s normally dominated by low pressure. We seem to be stuck in this pattern and I doubt if there’s any way out for the foreseeable … autumn here we come!
I normally give summer a chance up to the equinox but …..
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I wonder if we'll get some kind of settled period, brief or not, later. There's very few Septembers I can think of without one. Even September 2008 which was one of the more poor this century had a predominantly settled second half.
This doesn't look that different to the above.
Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/
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