Autumn 2025 - General Discussion

We may have had one dry day before I left on the 6th. I think it rained here at least once every day while I was away and rained Monday and yesterday since I got back. Today is technically not a fully dry day since it rained during the night and cleared this morning.

Don't know how much rain fell last night but it seemed like a good bit the garden is a bit squelchy this morning, good thing I got the grass cut yesterday as it could be a week or more before I get a chance to cut it again.

Thought a thread might be worthy at this stage given the big rainfall charts coming out especially over the last 24hrs. Still a lot of uncertainty on track and position of where will get the most rainfall but the charts have been showing yellow and orange level rainfall levels over Sat into Sun.

Including two posts from the up to 120hrs charts thread to kick it off, also a possibility of some windy conditions, might even be possible to get some strong winds in parts especially some coastal areas .

Even at this late stage huge uncertainty about the weather over the weekend especially Saturday. Models have been changing track by the run but they were mostly all showing potential for some significant falls of rain over a relatively short time and had been showing the chance of strong winds running down along the coasts from a Northerly direction.

Most notably ECM 12Z showing it to be much windier on the latest run in parts overland and very windy in parts along the coasts but nothing certain as yet to where will get the strong winds or most rainfall as all depends how the LP evolves in such a complex set up, sandwiched between two arms of the the Jet moving in opposite directions .

Just leading with the ECM as I think it might have a better handle on it but would expect a change in the look of the charts over the coming days one way or the other.

UKMO similar winds but rainfall mostly in the E.

GFS quite windy, more so in the Eastern half of the country and extremely wet in the East as the chart shows below.

ICON not as windy and very wet in the SE.

GFS 18Z just rolling out and showing some huge amount of rain in 24hrs and keeps the totals totting up into Sunday.

Windy also but again would expect some change to the charts but has the hallmarks of some very high rainfall totals.

Notable mid level temperature gradient. That is a lot of warm moisture laden air meeting colder airmass.