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Beef price tracker 2

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 20,926 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    I agree it did not, however there is no God given right to a profit. 5 years ago we were producing too much, 50%+ of sucklers cows were loss making, there is still probably 20%+ wasting there time ,it's hard to know if they would do any better at anything else. Have no doubt there is farmers not making money at calf to beef etc and other system. However dairy bred calves will always be produced as dairying is inherently profitable if done half right

    Suckler cows are a byproduct of milk quotas back in the 80's. Dairy farmers controlled the supply of beef calves. They started improving cow quality which reduced the number of calves they produced. Along with that until the end of the noughties. Most dairy farmers had a beef operation on the side.

    Traditionally suckler cows were only along the western seaboard. Even dairy calves went west to be reared to be stores before moving to better land to fatten.

    Milk quotas changed the complete landscape along with production based quotas. The end of quotas changed the landscape again. Calves halved in price and it became profitable to have a beef system based calf to beef because of extra supply as dairy farmers went 100% dairying. The changing of subsidies from production based to area based and convergence reduced the reason to keep suckler. Now we have a situation where sucklers profitability has increased because of reduced beef supply and Bluetongue ( which we survived this year.)

    If sucklers increase substantially, it will increase beef supply dairy cales will drop back etc.

    The appalling vista is if Bluetongue gets in

    Post edited by Bass Reeves on

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 152 ✭✭nearlybreak


    well if it does the cattle game will be gone lads won’t keep them just be all the dairy herd the suckers needed this otherwise the herd be gone



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 152 ✭✭nearlybreak


    life has changed though years ago lads work away and were happy with minimal profit now most fellas with sucklers have jobs they won’t bother if they can’t make money too much time and work involved to get nothing back



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,366 ✭✭✭Sheep breeder


    There was a man up in Wicklow that had 800 sucklers and when the heifer come into play he had a 1000, had land in Kildare and Wicklow and ended up on the top 10 SFP payments, also was a Simmental breeder back in the day as well as the society and a vet.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 20,926 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    THat is a while back I think it was nearly all AA bulls he was using. Cows wereculles at 8-10 years of age. I a not remember thecow type he used.

    There was a farmer above in co Down as wlwith large numbers I think he used BBxHO cows bred to AA bullshe was carrying everything to finish. Some of the AA were getting into U grade

    Slava Ukrainii



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  • Registered Users Posts: 458 ✭✭WoozieWu


    there is a very big herd in louth currently



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,366 ✭✭✭Sheep breeder


    No all continental cows with Lim, Char, Sim bulls usually bought out of the test station in Tully and doing bull beef, was on a farm walk on a farm in Kildare he had leased and the man looking after the stock herded them on horse back, serious operation



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 4,410 ✭✭✭kk.man


    I remember him, an uncle of mine bought a Simmental bull off him.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,101 ✭✭✭farawaygrass


    looked it up there. It’s 3 times what it was in 1950 and almost double what it was in 1980. Amazing how quality of life has improved so much along with the increase in population



  • Registered Users Posts: 458 ✭✭WoozieWu


    beef breeds have moved on to a different level over the last 40 odd years and a tiny amount of dairy cows are dual purpose now

    plenty of farms still buy a cheap angus bull with the shortest gestation they can get to mop up their crossbred je x fr handy sized cow or even worse to just cover their heifers

    the amount of calf to beef farms that pull the plug tells its own story

    you have to be the mother to the calf and that definitely doesnt suit someone with a job



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 20,926 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    I would say a much higher percentage of suckler farmers have pulled the plug compared to calf to beef operations. You also havevto factor that a substantial number of smaller suckler units on poorer land have opted to minimise sto king rates and have entered organics. That is not an optional open to calf to store or beef operations.

    You are incapable of an reasonable analysis of the beef sector.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 458 ✭✭WoozieWu


    rolling 20% dropout before 5 years for dairy beef

    declining carcass weights on the dairy side year on year

    higher mortality

    summer scour

    high labour requirement at time of purchase

    upfront cost for milk powder and meal

    not a simple game

    sure you gave it up



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 20,926 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Once again you attack me.

    I only ever did calf rearing because of issue between 2005 and about 2OO8/9 becase of the f@@k up that was the farm payment system. After I purchased in 2003 I had no SFP untilabout 2008, I was trying to compete for stores from 2005 to 2008 against lads with substantial SFP who at the time were willing to.lose money buying stock. It took them 3 years for them to adjust there economics in buying cattle. I was making farm repayments of 2k/ month and was after buying another small bit of ground joining my house wich was costing 5k half yearly.

    So ecominics dictated that I could not afford to lose money at the store to beef game.

    When the economics changed in 2008 I started doing bulls for4-5 years.

    Remember I never got handed a farm for nothing

    Post edited by Bass Reeves on

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 458 ✭✭WoozieWu


    that is the reality of dairy beef though

    its no walk in the park and plenty of people try it for a while and give up



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,725 ✭✭✭weatherbyfoxer


    You must have been attacked by a suck calf as a child or something?..reading your posts constantly attacking any beef system bar sucklers is getting tiring.Dairy beef suits some lads financially and labour wise better than sucklers and vica versa.

    The biggest issue going forward will be the lack of young beef animals from both the suckler herds and the dairy herd.When derogation goes id be expecting calf exsporters to hover up most dairy beef animals while they can.90% of suckler herds are very small and are not capable of filling feedlots with cattle and as farmer age and are unable to handle stock this will be more of an issue.

    At current calf prices dairy beef is too high risk imho and from what im being told from a friend will involved in the calf exsport game it will get dearer as we head to the spring as then they will be filling lorrys for bigger markets.To be honest i think a system like Bass's is a safer bet at the moment.Seems to be the odd bit of value the past week about if a lad is cute



  • Registered Users Posts: 458 ✭✭WoozieWu


    when have i attacked any other system

    i or any suckler or dairy farmer will be painfully open about the downsides of what we do

    there is no need to gloss over the realities of rearing young stock

    its not simple in anyway shape or form



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 5,371 ✭✭✭bogman_bass


    IMG_0913.png

    must have been some bullock. Anybody see him?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 20,926 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    What mart and when I cannot see the price paid

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 5,371 ✭✭✭bogman_bass


    IMG_0928.png

    Sorry. Carnaross today. 5 grand! I wonder is he a lad that had been on the show circuit?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 3,036 ✭✭✭50HX


    It grabs the eye as its 5k

    When you break it down it 4.80/kg which is being paid for some cattle.

    Still 30c/kg min ahead of factory price

    If his age was genuine he would have gotten a good share of feeding



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 20,926 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Had a look at him on LSL, he would carry another half a ton anyway if his legs woukd hold it up. Ya I would say a show bullocks, Auctioneer looked for 5k for him straight off he opened at 4.2k and went on from there.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 20,926 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Woozie

    The very first interaction I had with you was a post where you attacked the price I had paid for stock. It's was a completely off the wall attack. You neither knew my system not where it was at the time.

    I agree calf prices do not reflect beef prices at present. However everything is cyclical, the wheel always turns.

    I am not all that sure we will lose the derogation, it's probably 50/50 at present. Ya exporters will hoover up calves next year, however over the next couple of years there will be impediments to export coming in. Age limits on calves leaving farms will happen within a year or two, distance limits of travel related to calf age. It's hard as well to judge calf prices until the glut happens next spring

    I loved the quote about "being attacked by a suck calf"

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 458 ✭✭WoozieWu




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 20,926 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Slaughter numbers at nearly 29k. 9.5k behind last years numbers. We are running nearly 90k behind last year at this stage. If it continues running at this level below last year we are looking at 200-250k less of a kill.

    IIt Woukd mean the CSO/Bordbia numbers are completely wrong by 100k+. Steer, cows and heifers are 5k, 2k, 2.5k behind tge same week.last year. The cow kill is .such as predicted but tgr steer and heifer numbers.bers are not in sync with cattle numbers provided by Bordbia/CSO.

    It will be interesting to see the way it pans out

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 4,632 Mod ✭✭✭✭Siamsa Sessions


    Where are Bord Bia getting their numbers?

    Or where is the difference of 100k coming from?

    Trading as Sullivan’s Farm on YouTube



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,725 ✭✭✭weatherbyfoxer


    Was chatting a few procurement lads on the dawn stand in the ploughing yeasterday and while they were talking down current trade they seem concerned about stock supply for the Xmas trade.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,916 ✭✭✭morphy87


    I was chatting to a hauler today and he said that the factories that he hauls for are only working 3 days next week,obviously trying to pull the price but they can see a shortage coming and they are trying to stretch it out,



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,916 ✭✭✭morphy87


    You were predicting that numbers would rise rapidly come September, I was chatting to a man this morning and he said that the factories that he hauls to are only working 3 days next week, trying to preserve numbers, So when and if we see the bigger numbers when do you think that they will start to appear?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 3,036 ✭✭✭50HX


    Weather conditions deteriorating albeit an improvement nxt week.

    7mnth stockers/summer grazers will start to appear

    Close on 3c/l cut on milk price by dairygold may bring more parlour cows to the marts considering prices for said cows are high.

    The number id like to see is what % of animals are gone out of the system due to TB....its rampant where i am, i appreciate its more prevelant in large dairy herds but its even in closed herds now in greater numbers



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 20,926 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Last year they jumped 7K in the first two weeks in September. They then stayed at that level until late November.

    Slava Ukrainii



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