Presidential Election 2025

possibly - I really can't see even 1% actually voting for that yoke - and most of them probably can't read a ballot paper

So RTE confirms that MLMcD will not be a candidate:

https://www.rte.ie/news/presidential-election/2025/0908/1532331-presidential-election/

The wailing and gnashing of teeth among FFG TDs will continue.

As expected, this makes Simon Harris look bad:

"Ms McDonald also said her party's councillors will not be ordered to oppose Independent candidates who are seeking to run in the Presidential Election"

Will FF show some sense and also allow its councillors decide? Or will Martin try to be the best FGer he can be and follow Harris' lead on this?

I think the left look at SF as a wannabe FF in reality. There will be no left alliance of any value in Ireland, the left in Ireland are a joke.

They have already done it with Speaking Rights, so the question is, are they building on that and playing a longer game.

I don't know. It is a great opportunity to present Harris and FG as being anti-democratic but there is no mention of FF or FG in the coverage. If FF still have some populist instincts, it will let FG take the negative coverage at a council/local level. If Martin decides to be the best FGer he can be and follows the FG lead, there is the possibility that some FF councillors could ignore him. That would cause problems for FF because it needs them to campaign for its candidate.

there is the possibility that some FF councillors could ignore him.

would not be unthinkable to see some of them ignoring Harris.

Can't see enough doing this in either case to get anyone on the ballot, so it'll be a bit of a local kerfuffle on the councils in question then everybody moves on.

The support for FF and FG seems to be siloed at the moment among party supporters and potential voters. I think that Kevin Cunningham of Ireland Thinks mentioned this.

FF and FG have to appeal to voters outside those silos. The FF and FG councillors will still back their FF and FG candidates. The election, without any clear candidate from SF, is turning into a battle for transfers. That means a battle for hearts and minds.

Letting councillors choose independent candidates allows councillors to participate in the process and gives them a sense of importance. They may campaign harder for their candidate as a result. Denying them that, while SF allows its councillors to vote for independents, makes them less relevant. It is Irish politics 101. Transfers matter and so do councillors as they, more than the TDs, are the immediate representatives of the grassroots.

I don't think that SF has a majority on any council.

What would be an “ok” result for a SF candidate if they do run someone? Third and only the occasional awkward troubles question? That to me would be best case scenario for them.