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Presidential Election 2025

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,591 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    In your opinion. And that's all that is.

    Instead of the unedifying internal machinations of FG and FF resulting in a coronation and an unintentional self inflicted leadership challenge they are calmly polling their members and branches, collating those views and discussing at Ard Comhairle. Then making a decision.

    Getting all the 'dammed if she did dammed if she didn't' chatter and noise out of the way early seems a smart and intelligent move to me. Managing to make Simon's dictat to councillors look undemocratic is a good move too.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,128 ✭✭✭harryharry25


    Why should SF have had someone on the pitch months ago when FF only are getting someone on the pitch this week (10 days before the Shinners will)

    They must not think it's very important either



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,117 ✭✭✭StormForce13


    SF's last minute stunt with the Londonderry Butcher didn't go very well when they tried it in 2011 and nor did it work when they ran the uninspiring Liadh Reidy in 2018. So I suspect that this time around they'll keep their hands in their pockets and give Connolly the nod, as she appeals to the same demographic.

    Mod: Warned for trolling

    Post edited by Seth Brundle on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,151 ✭✭✭✭gormdubhgorm


    But the fact SF have not named a candidate yet, says to me two things. They have not found a credible candidate and/or are watching what the other parties are doing.
    SF had years to prepare for this. Yet there is no clear decision made, And it is now late in the day.

    I believe SF are worried that a SF candidate not “suited” to ROI politics would come under heavy scrutiny and damage the carefully cultivated SF ROI brand. The other parties don’t have that worry about that.

    My prediction is SF will stick with the Lukewarm Connolly support. And nominate Jarlath Burns as SF Presidential candidate in 7 years time. And he would have a great chance of winning, then.

    Guff about stuff, and stuff about guff.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,591 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Clear from weekend polls there is very little advantage gained in announcing early and signs are it can be damaging.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,765 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    If the latest polling is anything to go by HH has 20%, JG has 17%, MLMD has 15% and CC has 13%… You would have to assume that HH and JG will transfer between each other as will the SF candidate and CC

    That likely puts HH on 37% and the SF candidate or CC on 28% after transfers

    We've seen from the Limerick mayor election last year that it's always better to be ahead in these races but there's a long way for both candidates to go to breach the 50% figure, the currently undecided voters will be absolutely crucial.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,676 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    My own guess is that SF 'will' run a candidate. The main opposition party and one of the three biggest parties in the state not having a candidate (when both government parties are running one) would be a most peculiar decision.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,128 ✭✭✭harryharry25


    I know you using the word Londonderry is meant to try wind people up but any Irish person calling it that just to try get a rise out of what they think are "Shinners" makes them look like gobshites imo

    I was replying to a post who said SF should have had someone on the pitch MONTHS ago

    I asked was this the same for FF or just the Shinners as they have nobody on the pitch at the minute either



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,128 ✭✭✭harryharry25


    No no SF should have had a candidate months ago

    FF are fine not having a candidate yet but the Shinners needed to have one months ago, because just



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,151 ✭✭✭✭gormdubhgorm


    Well it wouldn’t be that odd SF not running a candidate would it? I mean no one ran against Higgins for his second term.

    And by SF sitting it out again, they avoid awkward questions from the past, but can spin the optics as establishment v anti- establishment.

    I think running Michelle O’Neill would be SF shooting itself in the foot. She wouldn’t be popular in the ROI. And her family history raises potential difficulties.

    Guff about stuff, and stuff about guff.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,295 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    SF ran a candidate against Higgins for his second term, who did appallingly. Have you forgotten that entire election?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,591 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    SF ran a candidate against Higgins.

    You are right, it is gas to listen to the noise about them maybe sitting this one out for whatever reason when the two parties of government sat the last election out because they had no-one capable or willing to make it a contest.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 2,478 ✭✭✭Cyclingtourist


    "Their focus is to get into government, which is the correct decision to achieve a united Ireland."

    Pretty obviously 'government' is where the real power to achieve things is. However with this government set to last to 2029 it doesn't leave much time for a UI referendum in this decade, or has the timeline been pushed out to the next one?

    Ultimately it's the UK government who will decide whether a referendum occurs in NI or when. Don't see them calling one anytime in the foreseeable future personally.

    When I see SF making a UI one of their main GE policy objectives I will take it more seriously.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 535 ✭✭✭myfreespirit


    That is quite doubtful - what has Michelle O'Neill to gain by sitting in the Áras for seven or more years, in a role with no political power?

    She is, in my view, doing a good job as First Minister and has acquitted herself well.

    Mind you, if she did stand in the presidential election, I'd certainly vote for her.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,151 ✭✭✭✭gormdubhgorm


    FF can afford last minute rabbits from the hat like Gavin. It seemed the option opened Martin took it. FF is a wholly Democratic Party. Whatever else you can say about them.

    But you know and I know SF by keeping its cards close to their chest, can look shady. FF can at least claim a transparent party process. NI electorate are used to dictates and “anointed”leaders.

    Unfortunately for SF the Presidental vote is not one for the NI market. Or even Louth, Cavan, Monaghan. It is the ROI as a whole.

    The selling “red diesel” anti authority mindset would not wash in a ROI election of any sort.
    SF need a “clean” palatable candidate otherwise the SF ROI brand gets set back. SF are only learning to be democratic. They need to move carefully.

    Guff about stuff, and stuff about guff.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/presidential-election-should-be-about-the-future-of-ireland-sinn-feins-michelle-oneill-says-vote-is-a-chance-to-talk-about-irish-unity/a1695688024.html

    Why should you take my word for it, just listen to Michelle O'Neill.

    "The Sinn Féin vice-president said the winner of next month’s election must use their role as Ireland’s head of state to represent the interests of all Irish citizens, including those living north of the Border.

    She said that should extend to playing a “role” in planning for Irish unification."

    Sinn Fein are the only party going around saying that "this election allows us the chance to talk a lot more about Irish unity." That is why it is strange that they don't have someone on the pitch, nothing to do with any other party who aren't making such noises.

    As the questioner in the article puts it, they are on the verge of irrelevance.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 2,478 ✭✭✭Cyclingtourist


    Well my point wasn't 'what has she got to gain' it was that she's their best chance of a win. You pretty much prove my point by saying you'd vote for her.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 535 ✭✭✭myfreespirit


    Ok, I see your point. I would agree that Michelle O'Neill would be a vote getter for SF in the presidential election



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 747 ✭✭✭feelings


    Because politicians always say exactly what they mean and never do the opposite…



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,591 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Catherine Connolly:

    Irish presidential election hopeful Catherine Connolly has said she would use her voice "in every way possible" for a united Ireland.

    The independent member of the Dáil (Irish parliament) was speaking during a trip to Belfast as part of her campaign.

    She denied it was a "waste of time" to visit Northern Ireland, where people cannot vote in the upcoming election for the Irish Republic.

    "Wasting my time? Absolutely the opposite. I have always felt that we have cut off a limb of our body in having Northern Ireland cut off from us," she said.

    Connolly expressed her support for Irish unity, but said she was "very conscious" this would only happen with the consent of the majority of citizens.

    "It's a building of trust, and it's a building of a vision for a united Ireland where we value everybody," she added.

    "Of course I would like to see it in my term as president, but whether that will happen will be a political decision.

    "But I will use my voice in every way possible for that vision to be a reality."

    Research and knowing what candidates are saying, is your friend.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    I get that Sinn Fein politicians are particularly two-faced but that isn't the point.

    You said that "The President has very little influence over whether or not a united Ireland happens. SF know that would be done through government, negotiations and building support across the entire island. It wouldn't be done through the Aras. Their focus is to get into government, which is the correct decision to achieve a united Ireland."

    While I agree with your first sentence, I don't accept the rest. Sinn Fein have been saying for the best part of 12 months that this particular Presidency is the one to kickstart a border poll. If what you are saying is true, that is a level of deceitfulness that Irish politics hasn't seen in a long time.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    I see that Sinn Fein councillors have been given the ok to back an independent candidate in council votes. It will be interesting to see how many of the opt for Conor McGregor and how many cast in with Maria Steen, hopefully giving us a better insight into thinking inside the party.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,765 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    In relation to my earlier comment seems these are more up to date polls

    1000032844.jpg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,128 ✭✭✭harryharry25


    You can be guaranteed no SF councillor will be backing McGregor. You know this but thought you would say it anyway

    Maybe the reason Simon has banned FG councillors from having their own mind, is because he is worried some would back Conor



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,654 ✭✭✭forumdedum




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,591 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    It is hilarious tbh to see the parties of government actually behaving like the mythical beards from Belfast allegedly do and dictating from on high what their members must do.



  • Administrators Posts: 55,641 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    The ship has sailed on SF backing Connolly IMO. They can't do it now, it will obviously look like they're holding their nose and reluctantly backing her purely because they couldn't find their own candidate. I am still convinced SF don't really want to touch Connolly as they know she is a no-hoper even with their backing, she is too toxic.

    I also think it looks fairly weak for the main opposition party not to put forward a candidate.

    They will surely run someone, it's just not going to be someone who has a chance of winning.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    We shall see, was thinking there would be more backing Steen.

    It will be interesting to see what they do.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,591 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    And we won't see what FG and FF councillors really think because they aren't allowed show that.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,877 ✭✭✭Downlinz


    It would be quite interesting if the final ballot only had 3 candidates, the two cheeks of government and Catherine Connolly thanks to the relentless pursuit of FF/FG to prevent others reaching the ballot. Only one place for anti-government votes to go, the only Independent on the ballot.

    I would think this doesn't suit FF/FG at all, they've potentially coalesced all opposition and Independent voters behind one candidate.



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