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Presidential Election.

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,859 ✭✭✭Ozymandius2011


    I don't want someone who will be silent on the injustices of the day. But I maybe would like someone who can meet with unpleasant leaders who we nonetheless have to work with.

    Michael D Higgins met Trump briefly in 2019, staying at his golf-course. But he is also an outspoken critic of some of Trump's policies.

    I haven't ruled out voting for Catherine Connolly, but I would prefer someone who is not as critical of NATO. I support joining NATO, though I recognise 59% don't.

    I attribute the election of Michael D Higgins both to personal popularity, his support for social justice, and also a desire to have a President not in the pockets of the fatcats.

    The problem is we need the fatcats too. They create the jobs.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 13,977 ✭✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    FF knew they couldn't win without the Dublin vote or a decent % of it. Their vote in Dublin has collapsed and they had nobody in Dublin who had a chance (Big Jim might but he wants top job).

    Gavin gives them Dublin votes and GAA votes. It's quite cynical but this is Fianna Fail we are talking about. I heard this morning that he is only now applying for FF membership.

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth house?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,518 ✭✭✭CPTM


    Because he's a driven individual I suppose, who likes progression and success. That's why he's already as successful as he is. And after the presidency there will be another challenge he will look for. Just a mindset thing.

    I'm more surprised about their choice of him than his decision to go for it.. Will he get votes from outside the pale? Also, are the attributes he has displayed behind his successes worth anything to the Irish presidency? He is obviously a master planner, strategist, and hard worker. Are any of those really required for the Irish presidency?

    I'm thinking we need a charismatic charmer who knows how to sell Ireland to the world.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 751 ✭✭✭GBXI


    This might be off-topic but what makes Connolly a "superb" TD? What has she done as a full-time opposition TD in influencing positively where Ireland is as a country now?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,462 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    I'll never forget the gay marriage debate on RTE where the Iona rep. told a gay man who was raising his dead sisters children that he could not marry because marriage is about children.

    She herself married her husband despite being infertile.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,705 ✭✭✭ShagNastii


    I'm thinking "Do Sinn Fein need a win or even want a win here?".

    It feels for me that this could really knock their credibility even further. If they are rejected yet again. How long can you be a loser??

    I think they should put up Mary Lou (or even Michelle O Neill) and throw the kitchen sink at it. She's probably one of the most palatable of the Sinners to middle Ireland and it could refresh the Sinn Fein party in the Dail.

    That said her potential replacements wouldn't set anything alight on Kildare street.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,454 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    It does sound like impetus for this came from FF, not from Jim Gavin. The whole affair is slightly odd - doesn't seem like Gavin was overly interested in a career in politics or being President but then FF came along with an offer. There's a definite risk it could all go pear shaped.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 13,977 ✭✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    I'd give O'Neill a good chance but I doubt she will run

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth house?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,705 ✭✭✭ShagNastii


    I'm neither a FFer or a Dub but I'd be very attracted to Gavin as president.

    Anything I've seen has been wholly impressive. He seems like a sound, respectful bloke.

    Is his lack of appeal outside of Dublin going to be a serious drawback or is it something the 26 counties will get over?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,786 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    I'll answer your question, yes, they need a win, but they don't need a big win as much as FF or FG do. Putting their weight behind CC will give her the best chance of getting over the line and even if she doesn't win she will likely come second with their help

    From a SF perspective being part of a coalition that either got or almost got CC into the Áras is probably a big enough win. Also having a FF or FG loss would be a small win for them

    Conversely FF and FG have lost their combined dail majority the last 2 elections and they both need a win much more than SF do.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,454 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    I would suggest that a lot of people in Ireland simply don't know the guy or anything about him. Contrary to popular opinion, a large number of people have zero interest in GAA and wouldn't recognise Gavin if they walked past him on the street. Given his lack of background in politics or the media, he would be a total unknown at this point for many people.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 41,075 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    Renua was a splinter group of FG.

    Which got nowhere despite a well-known leader, half a dozen existing TDs, and plenty of financial backing.

    There was also a photo of "conservative" FF TDs around the time of one of the referenda.

    2018 and IIRC most of them either retired or lost their seats next time around.

    While the definition of "conservative" might be variable, the support demographics of FF, and to a lesser extent FG, are older. Conservative voters are often older voters.

    People seem to forget that almost half of over-65s voted to repeal the 8th. There is a lot of stereotyping of older voters going on and it's no longer accurate. Those who are 65-70 now were in their 20s in the 1980s, when the Church attitudes towards sex, contraception, divorce, etc etc were seen by most of their generation as ridiculous.

    Again we have the Steenvangelism. She's not going to be a candidate. And as the Repeal and marriage equality votes showed, there are many people who describe themselves as churchgoing Catholics who find the likes of the Iona Institute far too extreme for their taste.

    Sheridan is a charlatan, everybody knows the President can do nothing about the sort of issues he would campaign on. It is very very odd that a businessman resident in the US for years, and decades off retirement, would relocate across the Atlantic just to have an outside shot at a nomination. His business is still vaporware as there is no approval for its product and might never be.

    Surely the obvious anti-government candidate is Connolly not Sheridan. However Connolly is damaged by the Daly, Wallace, Syria, anti-NATO associations she spent years building up but now seems to be trying to distance herself from.

    I'm partial to your abracadabra
    I'm raptured by the joy of it all



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Gavin would have a much higher positive public profile than Connolly.

    How many people know much about Connolly other than she is a whining backbench leftist TD from somewhere rural?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    That is a strange one.

    Sinn Fein have lost two successive general elections, they have never featured in a Presidential election. One of the reasons they have lost those elections is because they are not seen as credible. Performing badly in the Presidential election, or worse, avoiding it altogether, only copperfastens that perception among the public who don't vote for them. It will also lose them votes around the edges.

    For the party with most questions about them, Sinn Fein are not doing themselves any good.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,518 ✭✭✭Blut2


    FF and FG got re-elected to government less than a year ago, after being the previous government, and the one before that. and the one before that, etc. Their most recent election even saw them gain more power from their previous government, since they got to ditch the Greens in favour of a few far less demanding INDs.

    And in the most recent local elections earlier in 2024 FF and FG got a combined 843k votes, to SF's 218k.

    The idea that they "need a win more than SF do" seems rather out of touch with electoral reality. FF & FG are the consistent winners in Irish politics.

    And given both LAB and SocDem members and TDs are already coming out with serious doubts about Connolly, now that her more extreme views are becoming more well known, its fairly unlikely SF will make the same mistake and row in behind her, need for a win or not.

    Shes going to poll behind the FF and FG candidates guaranteed, and potentially any right-wing populist candidate that runs too if any can get enough nominations to run.

    Her non-SF support base is only PBP voters and the harder left wings of SocDems/Labour/Greens, around 10% of the population at most if SF don't support her. And even with a grudging endorsement from SF would be likely capped at 15-20%, given a populist candidate will hoover up the substantial SF anti-immigration key issue votes.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,968 ✭✭✭Rocket_GD


    Are you not able to discuss her without being derogatory?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    It is factual, I have never heard her make a positive speech about any aspect of Irish society.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,068 ✭✭✭crusd


    Shantalla in Galway city being a well known little townland in the countryside of course



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,961 ✭✭✭Working class heroes


    Racism is now hiding behind the cloak of Community activism.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 18,014 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Likewise Mary Lou or Michelle O'Neill . If SF plump for one of them . Can't see MON though as that would leave the Stormont Assembly short a strong and accepted First Minister… too much at stake there

    A few waiting in the wings for MaryLou to move on so that might be actually happen .

    Again would be very Dublin centric .



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,454 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Would O'Neill becoming President be a step down for SF though? The President's role is arguably bigger than that of First Minister of NI. If MON ran and didn't win, she would simply stay on as First Minister.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 18,014 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Not saying a step down .

    But she is elected First Minister and alongside Pengelly is established as the acceptable leader of the assembly . I would think that taking her out of her present position and replacing with someone as yet unknown or untested is just offering an excuse to Unionists to kick up .

    MaryLou is a less messy option .

    Also I don't see MON appealing to many in the Republic , why do you ?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 75,290 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    There's already precedent of the Deputy FM standing down to run for President and returning after coming third.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,454 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Presumably one of the SF ministers at Stormont such as Conor Murphy or Caoimhe Archibald would then replace her as First Minister.

    Mary Lou or MON entering the fray would certainly be very interesting. It would be quite unusual for someone so high profile in current politics to be in an Irish presidential race i.e. the 'leader of the opposition' or the First Minister of NI.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,261 ✭✭✭✭Beechwoodspark


    Joanne Donnelly on rte radio 1 announcing she wants to run for President and has emailed all of the county councils.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,045 ✭✭✭cheese sandwich




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,454 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    That sounds a bit bonkers - can't imagine she would be a credible candidate in any way.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 18,014 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    She is not Deputy FM though . She is First Minister hard fought and in very strained circumstances and it would be a mistake to move her now imo.

    I don't think MoN would appeal because while she was born in Fermoy she has lived and worked in , and crucially, her political career has entirely been in the North .

    Mary McAleese was different in that she lived and worked , and was involved politically in the Republic for much of her life post university before running for election as President .

    Apart from the fact that MON is a very accomplished , well liked and experienced politician, it is stretching it a bit to think that people would in any great numbers vote for her , a politician from an entirely different jurisdiction except for some potential desire for a president to bring about or closer to an United Ireland .

    Are you thinking the Presidential campaign should be used as some sort of de facto referendum for a United Ireland ?

    Mary Lou on the other hand is well known and very popular among more than SF supporters , especially though in Dublin.

    So far so very niche with most of the candidates being proposed.

    Not one as yet to appeal across the boards .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 17,379 ✭✭✭✭MisterAnarchy


    el-risitas-juan-joya-borja.gif

    Ah this is turning into some circus.

    Who will be next to declare, Dustin the Turkey.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 75,290 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    First and Deputy First Minister have identical legal standing



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