Presidential Election.

blanch152 · 01-09-2025 10:55AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123774568#Comment_123774568

Sinn Fein could even come fourth, given the headstart that Connolly has had.

jmcc · 01-09-2025 11:05AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123774568#Comment_123774568

There should be a poll in the Sindo at the weekend. The next move is up to SF. If it remains a three horse race and Gavin wins, FG supporters might be left wondering how things would have went with Kelly as the FG candidate.

Regards…jmcc

harryharry25 · 01-09-2025 11:10AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123774591#Comment_123774591

Blame each other's party's for the health, housing, education, infrastructure, immigration and health crisis we currently have

That will be interesting to say the least

Montage of Feck · 01-09-2025 11:20AM

Someone like Lynn ni Riada would go well this time round, from artistic background with some legal or political experience but without the muck of the troubles on their cv. As at the moment there isn't really any moderate centre left candidate that would be palatable to me.

thatsdaft · 01-09-2025 11:40AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123771665#Comment_123771665

She is despicable

Any supporter of Putin needs to be called out loudly from the rooftops

We need a president who represents this country not some KGB oligarch interests

JVince · 01-09-2025 12:00PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123774867#Comment_123774867

The problem with being the only declared candidate and it being silly season in the press, your history gets dug up very quickly. And her history is not conducive to the largely ceremonial and apolitical role of president.

sf won't run anyone as they don't want to be seen as coming 3rd (or 4th). They'd rather take the flak of not putting someone forward

blanch152 · 01-09-2025 12:02PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123775069#Comment_123775069

Connolly can't win then, unless she gets 43% plus on the first count.

Transfers will go between Humphreys and Gavin.

It would be more interesting so see her finish third, and which of the other two would be elected by her transfers.

JVince · 01-09-2025 12:08PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123775077#Comment_123775077

I can't see connolly even getting close to 10%. i don't know a single person who thinks she's an ideal candidate and that incudes Labour & sf supporters. As I don't know any crackpot paul murphy supporters, I can't say anything for them, but I suspect that's the only place she'll get support.

She'll need 12.5% to get expense back. So my guess is she'll be out of pocket

Loafing Oaf · 01-09-2025 12:13PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123774915#Comment_123774915

They certainly won't be going there. I suspect the most we'll get is very nuanced implicit digs at the other's suitability for the role, e.g. HH emphasising her extensive political experience…

Packrat · 01-09-2025 01:02PM

Connolly is wholly unfit to be President of our country because she only represents a tiny hard left minority. Anyone voting for her - I'd look at with serious suspicion. Unfortunately some 10 or 15% will.

Jim Gavin can fcuk off - a parachuted canditate (being completely used by sleeveen Mickey M) with no public position on anything relevant. Wooden in interviews abd will get savaged in the debates. Again there's a significant group who will vote for him based on GAA and being from Dublin.

Which leaves Heather Humphreys. Who would be a very good fit for the job description.

The job is to represent us on an international stage, to check legislation and cut ribbons, to be liked, able to command a room, and very importantly - to not rock any boats.

Only one of the 3 front runners fits this description.

Bertie would have been a good President but his previous bollocksing rightfully rules him out.

Billy Kelleher would I'm sure be a good President but he got caught because of Mickeys machaevillian machinations.

harryharry25 · 01-09-2025 01:06PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123775295#Comment_123775295

if Catherine Connolly is unfit for president as in your view only represents 10-15% of the population

How on earth is Heather from a party who got around 20% in the latest election fit for president?

Hotblack Desiato · 01-09-2025 02:34PM

That's a ridiculous take. Connolly, by not being in a party at all, got about 0.3% of the first preference votes cast so by your 'logic' she is not representative of anyone at all outside of Galway West.

Hotblack Desiato · 01-09-2025 02:36PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123774953#Comment_123774953

Ni Riada was a terrible candidate, even aside from the dubious anti-vax comments. A completely embarrassing performance for the party and it's not surprising they're dithering so long over whether to run a candidate at all never mind pick one.

blanch152 · 01-09-2025 02:50PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123775679#Comment_123775679

The problem for Sinn Fein in a Presidential election is that it usually works differently from a Dail election.

In a Dail election, voters are often voting against a government, rather than for an alternative. That voter is the bedrock of Sinn Fein's vote. However, in a personality driven Presidential election, voters tend to vote positively for someone. Sinn Fein have no history in attracting positive votes, and their candidates are generally unlikeable whingers and moaners who work well in a Dail election, but not in a Presidential election.

By stepping slightly sideways, both FF and FG have identified candidates that can bring some positive vibes and energy to the contest. HH has a story to tell, of real inclusiveness, of genuine integration. Gavin has a story to tell of lifelong public service, and solid achievement. Connolly looks a pale imitation to both of them, and there is frankly nobody anywhere near Sinn Fein who looks like that. Even someone like Frances Black, if she would accept their support, doesn't wash it.

Hard to see where they go with this one, but notable that the Sinn Feiners for Connolly, who were so prominent on this thread have disappeared in recent days. Something might be cooking, or else they have seen the writing on the wall for dear Catherine.

Packrat · 01-09-2025 03:03PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123775313#Comment_123775313

Because her general outlook represents probably 40+ % of the population. Not that she'll get that vote, but if FF didn't run a candidate she'd walk in.

_Kaiser_ · 01-09-2025 03:09PM

I see now that Bob Geldof is being mentioned as potentially throwing his hat into the ring.

This entire thing is a farce - between public non-entitities/nobodies, celebrities, and failed/former politicians. Why are we even bothering at this stage?

Oscar_Madison · 01-09-2025 03:16PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123775295#Comment_123775295

“Bertie would have been a good President but his previous bollocksing rightfully rules him out.”

I’d still love to see him run, just to see how many people would vote for him on the day

harryharry25 · 01-09-2025 03:16PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123775815#Comment_123775815

Heather Humphreys is well liked in Fianna Gael.

I wouldn't be too sure that she's well liked in Fianna Fail

FF members wanted to run a candidate, Micheal Martin clearly didn't. When they made him run a candidate he picked his own one and said this is our candidate

I wouldn't even be too sure FF members around the country are all too happy about running a Dublin celebrity GAA candidate

Oscar_Madison · 01-09-2025 03:18PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123775842#Comment_123775842

I love the idea of Geldof as president but I reckon he’d grow bored within 1/2 hour of being elected and pizz back off to Engerland with his knighthood

Oscar_Madison · 01-09-2025 03:26PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123775867#Comment_123775867

“I wouldn't even be too sure FF members around the country are all too happy about running a Dublin celebrity GAA candidate”

Im sure the chap has positive qualities but sorry -A terrible choice as a presidential candidate

blanch152 · 01-09-2025 03:35PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123775867#Comment_123775867

We shall see.

The desperation of Connolly supporters on here to do Gavin down suggests the opposite to me, that posters like you are afraid of the threat he poses. The man speaks well in public, he has served the State for over 30 years in many different positions, he has diplomatic experience through his work with the Irish Defence Forces, an organisation that he understands well and is suited to be Commander-in-Chief.

harryharry25 · 01-09-2025 03:59PM

The problem for Heather and FG is they have never won the presidential election

This to me shows that apart from FG voters, people just don't like FG

I hope she has a good answer for her usyage of properties without planning permission for one

Cluedo Monopoly · 01-09-2025 04:06PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123775930#Comment_123775930

I am a Connolly supporter but I now have a large bet on Gavin at very good odds. Yikes!

I think now that Connolly would be better off staying a TD in the Dail. She has little chance of winning. She is a superb TD but the presidency would silence her. She will keep the absolute charlatans in FFG "honest" in the next few tough years.

For Forks Sake · 01-09-2025 05:07PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123775679#Comment_123775679

She also inadvertently blew the doors of the SF "average industrial wage" nonsense, dumb as rocks 🙄

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/sinn-fein-presidential-candidate-liadh-ni-riada-dismisses-salary-controversy-as-no-big-deal/37453611.html

Loafing Oaf · 01-09-2025 05:46PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123775679#Comment_123775679

For me the biggest issue with LNR was she seemed to have no enthusiasm for the campaign and gave every impression of having to have her arm twisted to run. If SF do run a candidate and there's any whiff of that with them their campaign is over before it starts

….

Goldengirl · 01-09-2025 09:27PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123773808#Comment_123773808

You seem to forget that women of all ages as well as men and their families voted repeal and Yes .

Age is not a factor in conservative politics in Ireland .And even if those voters are more conservative when it comes to the economy and everything else there are very few families that would be likely to want to vote for a candidate who wishes us to go backwards .

I would say there are more younger people who are conservative who haven't yet gone through the complex choices that life can throw up and the pain of those realities. Except of course the housing crisis which will harden them against the government candidates .

I see Sheridan if he gets on the ballot getting that vote .

Goldengirl · 01-09-2025 09:45PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123775295#Comment_123775295

Lol..".to not rock any boats."

When has that worked out in the last 30 years?!

Maybe Mary McAleese ,while she was president but not otherwise .

jmcc · 01-09-2025 11:45PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123777254#Comment_123777254

There are conservative elements in FF and FG. Renua was a splinter group of FG. There was also a photo of "conservative" FF TDs around the time of one of the referenda. While the definition of "conservative" might be variable, the support demographics of FF, and to a lesser extent FG, are older. Conservative voters are often older voters.

Sheridan would be the most dangerous candidate for FF/FG because he could become the voice for those most impacted by FF/FG Housing policies. A single candidate who becomes the "anti-government" candidate could attract younger votes and also votes across the political spectrum. This is why FF and FG will want to keep him off the ballot paper. Steen is quite different. She could get a high percentage of conservative votes while being unlikely to win. FF and FG would not want her on the ballot paper as she appears to be very effective at debating politicians.

With the emphasis on TV and Social Media, the biggest challenge is getting people to think of a candidate as being "presidential" rather than just another candidate. McGuinness may have had that quality. Humphreys and Connolly have not displayed that quality yet. As for Gavin, he hasn't really had much media coverage. So far, the main candidates are big fish in little puddles. They haven't managed to move beyond those puddles.

Strumms · 02-09-2025 01:42AM

I don’t get the Gavin presidential run. I believe he’d do a good enough job. But what has he himself to gain ? Personally ..? I’m reading that he joined the Aer Corps in 1990. So he’s been serving the state for his work for 35 years… between the Aer Corps and the IAA where he’s presently earning 6 figures anyway. Why would you want to uproot your missus, move out of your home, live 100% of your life on somebody else’s timetable… ? For money he don’t need…… for prestige he doesn’t need… it’s all a bit weird….

littlevillage · 02-09-2025 04:06AM

I would like a man in my Arás 🏠

Representative of the persons who still control the households and land in this country

Presidential Election.

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