Presidential Election.

spakman · 31-08-2025 08:23AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123771093#Comment_123771093

Put up or shut up.

Silentcorner · 31-08-2025 08:26AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123771106#Comment_123771106

Yes father, sorry father!! 😉

Mod - warned for trolling

Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire · 31-08-2025 09:12AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123771113#Comment_123771113

I'm not terribly invested in 'Progressive Policies', 'NGOs', Maria Steen etc one way or the other.

But you're doing yourself and your argument no good by not naming what the exact issues are that you're against. It appears a little cowardly. No one is going to burn you at the stake. You're already in a solid debate so it might aswell be about the real issues rather than hiding behind a phrase.

Is it sexual identity and trans ideology? I think it's safe to discuss that without emotion.

Is it popular support for Palestine in Ireland? There's a thread on that and there are pro Israeli posters since that thread opened.

If your pro life you can say that. It might be a minority view but it's sizeable, one third of the vote in 2018. Also the marriage referendum, saying you don't agree and giving solid reasons won't lose you respect from reasonable people.

This hiding behind 'progressive policies' and silly one line replies is annoying.

Loafing Oaf · 31-08-2025 12:21PM

I'm wondering if it's a Humphreys-Gavin-Connolly race and Connolly goes out first which way would her transfers break? I'm guessing purely her being a Nordie Proddie might be enough to swing them HH's way?

Morris Garren · 31-08-2025 12:29PM

There is undoubtedly a solid conservative constituency in Ireland, maybe people of all ages, who do not and never did support wholeheartedly the 'progressive' or woke tendencies of the past decade. At times they were shouted down and cancelled by the militant leftist woke brigade, but in truth that grouping is quite small in number, but large in impact, generating enormous heat rather than light. To think that Ms Steen is a voice to represent this 'silent majority' of conservatives is misguided-- her Iona-sponsored far right guff is just the other end of the angry arm-waving spectrum. A solid, centre-conservative candidate will clean up in this election and it looks like HH is the best bet so far.

31-08-2025 12:37PM

Listening to rte right now, they are trying a hatchet job on connolly already because of her history with ex TDs/ MEPs

Not sure I'll be voting for her in any case but she is well able to shut Justin up, which he deserves. Compared to the softly softly approach he took with the FF minister re: Jim Gavin and Micheal Martin's selection process...it's chalk and cheese. Some really dumb questions from Justin and she is calling him out on it.

She is well able to fight her corner, a good speaker no doubt. Far more suitable to the role than a gaa guy whose a good process driven manager or some sh!te.

Not sure I would vote for her, but she is very capable.

Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire · 31-08-2025 01:06PM

I really don't know how Jim Gavin will do. To a lot of people, maybe even in Dublin, he might prove a boring, bland candidate as the debates get going. He could just be a great GAA manager and people mightn't see much beyond it. Little more than if Brian Cody went. 'Saving' gaelic football and winning 6 All Ireland's in a row are fairly obtuse to the presidency. Higgins, Robinson were political people. McAleese dealing with political issues, working on the old Today Tonight plus her quals.

In my neck of the country Humphreys father being in the OO and grandfather signing The Solemn League and Covenant in 1912 would stick in a lot of people's craw. Again I don't know would she pull the votes.

People mentioning Gavin going with FF, I don't think it makes much of a difference. As the campaign goes on it's more about the individual, like Mary Robinson in 1990. Labour had about 10% support then, but that didn't matter. And regardless of all the 'most corrupt party, ruined the country' online stuff, FF are still the biggest party in the country, nothing like they were but far from pariahs.

HalloweenJack · 31-08-2025 01:58PM

At least they didn't go for Bertie but the GAA being as tribal as it is, it wouldn't surprise me if people don't vote for Gavin because he's a Dub.

I have no idea about the man so I'll see how he does in his campaign but being an FFer is an immediate red flag for me.

Hotblack Desiato · 31-08-2025 02:18PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123769158#Comment_123769158

Her claiming credit for that is delusional.

Hotblack Desiato · 31-08-2025 02:20PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123769258#Comment_123769258

A strong, independent woman who lets celibate men tell her what she's allowed do in the bedroom. 🙄

She's a dinosaur.

L1011 · 31-08-2025 02:26PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123771638#Comment_123771638

We were told that a party was going to swing in and unify the 30-something% that voted against repeal (and same sex marriage a few years earlier) and create a solid conservative base.

Aontu have two seats, one barely scraped in.

Such a bloc doesn't actually exist

Hotblack Desiato · 31-08-2025 02:45PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123770188#Comment_123770188

Steen, the Iona "Institute" and the other apologists for the Roman Catholic Church are the ones who are repulsive. Electoral poison and very much of the past - a past which is not going to come back ever.

We've had legalised same-sex marriage for ten years, legalised abortion for six years. The sky didn't fall in. The numerous lies of the No side have been exposed as exactly that. Support for these issues is even higher now than when the referendums were held. Your posts in this thread, as well as being highly abusive, are delusional.

Hotblack Desiato · 31-08-2025 02:58PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123770669#Comment_123770669

It is my view that this wave of Progressive Policies are much more damaging than anything the clergy did.

It's pretty disgusting that you think mass rape of children by clerics is to be so easily dismissed and ignored.

Jim2007 · 31-08-2025 03:01PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123772133#Comment_123772133

Never say never… A United Ireland means a new constitution, probably some kind of federal state and 2 million conservative Christian voters added to the mix!

Cluedo Monopoly · 31-08-2025 03:26PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123771093#Comment_123771093

You're awful awful vague. Nobody is stopping you listing a few "progressive policies" that you don't like. I can't understand your reluctance. If it's the he/him/them/they stuff, then I don't agree with it either but I take very little notice of it. I don't do a lot of social media and I am quite tolerant so maybe not as wound up as you about these "progressive ideologies". I am forever grateful that we got rid of the church influence though. They were destroying our society and keeping us backward.

Saying Ireland in 2025 is like Ireland in 1970s is just weird too. It makes no sense.

Hotblack Desiato · 31-08-2025 03:39PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123771665#Comment_123771665

The facts cannot be a hatchet job.

The facts are that her association with Wallace and Daly is deeply misguided. The Irish electorate told those two fans of Iran and Russia where to go and Connolly would be far better off just admitting that she was wrong. Same with her endorsement of Gemma O'Doherty. But she is either too misguided or too stubborn to see how wrong she is. Very poor judgement on her part which renders her unfit for the office.

Hotblack Desiato · 31-08-2025 03:56PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123772207#Comment_123772207

Church attendance is higher in NI than in ROI or GB, but still only half of adults describe themselves as practising Christians in this survey

https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2024/0227/1434591-northern-ireland-religion-evangelicalism-identity-survey-feb-2024/

17.4% selected No Religion in the 2021 census (higher than in the Republic). Polls in 2018 showed that support for reforming their abortion laws (about 66%) was of a similar level to the support for repeal here.

jmcc · 31-08-2025 04:27PM

There seems to be a lack of understanding about the difference between a presidential election and a General Election. With a GE, there are multiple candidates in multiple constituencies. With a presidential election, there is effectively one constituency with a far smaller set of candidates. That means that the usual geographical dispersal of various votes and demographics do not happen. A conservative vote or any other vote demographic might have more of an effect in a presidential election. The obvious example is Peter Casey in 2018. If Maria Steen gets on the ballot paper, a similar effect could happen.

Regards…jmcc

Tony EH · 31-08-2025 04:39PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123772293#Comment_123772293

Irrespective of everything else, Ireland in 2025 being like Ireland in the 70s is one of the most bizarre takes I have ever heard.

skimpydoo · 31-08-2025 09:20PM

To those talking about Connolly going to Syria, its worth remembering that the only Irish TD to meet President Assad was Micheal Martin.

IMG_1624.JPG

Podge_irl · 31-08-2025 09:21PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123773651#Comment_123773651

Which was before the Arab spring and before he started a campaign of mass murder.

Connolly stood in front of a Palestinian refugee camp that he annhilated.

Hotblack Desiato · 31-08-2025 09:46PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123772575#Comment_123772575

Casey was just a protest vote, Higgins was expected to romp home (and did - no candidate had ever won on the first count in a more than two candidate presidential election before). There was never any prospect of Casey actually making a contest of it. You'd have to wonder how many Casey voters actually wanted him to win it. It was "safe" to vote for him because he had no chance of winning.

The hardline conservative vote is small and might not all row in behind Steen (should she somehow get on the ballot, which appears extremely unlikely) in any case. Look at Aontu's complete lack of electoral success. There is an amazing amount of wishful thinking going on in the vain hope she'll "stick it to the libs". In the unlikely event of her getting on the ballot, she will finish last and not recover her expenses.

jmcc · 31-08-2025 10:10PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123773730#Comment_123773730

The turnout in the 2018 presidential election was down 12% on that of 2011. If I recall correctly, 43.9% of the electorate voted. The election of Higgins was hardly the resounding success that his supporters in the media made out. He was the government candidate as he was endorsed by FF and FG. Even Labour ran a good online campaign for him. Casey was a protest vote. He was also not quite like the other bland candidates.

The only one mentioning a "hardline" conservative vote is you. There is a conservative vote and it is often concentrated in the older dempgraphics. Those demographics consistently vote. This vote is more likely to be seen in referenda and in presidential elections. The reason for this is because these are effectively single constituency votes. FF/FG/SF will probably not want Steen on the ballot paper. Labour is, despite the reservations of older and less radical Labourites, backing Connelly. The media has been working hard on attacking Connelly over the past few months. It has almost ignored Humphreys.

According to the media, the two referenda were going to be passed overwhelmingly. They were not. If Steen gets on the ballot paper, there is a chance that she will do better than the media expects. She could even get more votes than Gay Mitchell. It would be very unlikely that she would win. Like the protest vote for Casey in 2018, such things can be early indications of the mood of the electorate changing. There's another demographic that you and others have not considered and that's the children of the Crash. Some of them may be old enough to vote in this election and if they vote against the government candidates, things could get very interesting.

Regards…jmcc

Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire · 31-08-2025 10:10PM

If on the ballot I'd expect Steen to poll similarly to Dana. There's much more to her but that 7-10% at best.

As a race goes on people tend to gravitate to the candidates topping the poll too.

Of those mentioned as in the running I can't say I'm overly excited by any of them, Gavin, Kelleher, Humphreys, Steen, Bertie etc.

As a poster said Bertie has the best career credentials. Around 2005 he was at his zenith, the Peace Process his crowning glory. But 2006 changed all, his sobby interview with Bryan Dobson. Vincent Browne's attack on the 2007 Election trail. Too many unanswered questions.

There doesn't seem to be an outstanding candidate. Maybe someone will emerge on the campaign.

Hotblack Desiato · 31-08-2025 11:09PM

Christ almighty, still going on about the two badly worded referendums as if they mean anything. For whatever reason, the wordings did not correspond with what the citizens' assembly recommended.

Yes, one would have to be quite hardline to vote for Steen. She has absolutely nothing going for her other than hardline religious conservatism. But the question will not arise, she will not get on the ballot.

Getting more votes than Gay Mitchell, is that the benchmark for success of conservative Ireland now 🤣🤣🤣 Worst mainstream party candidate ever (well, SF's Ni Riada last time would give him a run for his money in the crap candidate stakes).

The notion that the "children of the crash" are going to vote for a religious nutter is utterly laughable.

jmcc · 31-08-2025 11:41PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123773904#Comment_123773904

I said that they may vote against the government candidates. It is quite simple. Connelly is the current non-government candidate. SF has yet to announce its candidate. Sheridan, if he gets on the ballot paper, and Steen, if she gets on the ballot paper would also be non-government candidates.

Perhaps the FF and FG candidates may transfer well to each other. FF and FG support has been declining and it is lower than it was in 2018. An anti-government vote that transfers well between the non-government candidates would be a nightmare for FF/FG supporters.

With McGuinness, FG might have expected to win as FF might have decided not to endorse a candidate. With Humphreys tied with Connolly in the most recent opinon poll, that advantage has disappeared. Humphreys, if she performs at anywhere near FG's support level in the most recent Irish Times/Ipsos-B&A poll could be eliminated and her transfers may go to the FF candidate. She may well be popular within FG as was Gay Mitchell. The important thing in the current election is a candidate's appeal to a wider set of voters than merely the candidate's supporters. FF now has at least two candidates and that scenariio of a presidential election uncontested by FF has disappeared. The FG campaign got Bidenised when McGuinness dropped out. It remains to be seen if Humphreys will be FG's Kamala Harris candidate.

The only one talkng about "hardline" conservatives is you. There is a conservative vote and how it votes in the election will be important given that the main parties, FF, SF, FG are quite close in terms of support. Connolly is, at the moment, the Left/centre-Left candidate. That will change if SF announces a candidate. Until then, Connolly is essentially a placeholder. Unless the campaigns of other candidates gather momentum, this is turning into an FF versus SF election.

Getting back to the conservative vote issue. Renua was an FG splinter party. There was also a conservative element in FF. It isn't a simple situation and the most dangerous thing for FF/FG would be a candidate that could provide a focus for this conservative vote. The candidate (Steen if she gets on the ballot paper) could cause problems for FF/FG because even if those who voted first for Steen and then for their party candidate would complicate the transfers issue. If conservative FF and FG voters didn't put their party candidate as the second preference, it could give the remaining non-government candidate an advantage. That is one of the unexpected consequences of a candidate that provides a focus for the electorate to express their discontent with the government.

Regards…jmcc

blanch152 · 01-09-2025 09:02AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123772349#Comment_123772349

This.

She was trying to backtrack over the weekend, but it was weak and self-serving. She may plummet in the polls.

blanch152 · 01-09-2025 09:05AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123773948#Comment_123773948

The conservatives will not vote for Connolly. She embodies all the things they hate.

They will vote for a Presbyterian or a GAA person ahead of her. Unless they are dragging one of their mad backbenchers onto the stage, there is nobody in Sinn Fein that the conservatives will vote for.

They will either not turn up or vote for Humphreys or Gavin. As an embodiment of our national games, Gavin could get the vote without even trying.

JVince · 01-09-2025 09:28AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123773948#Comment_123773948

Sheridan has no hope of getting on the ballot. The bookies give Panti Bliss a better chance.

My guess is there will be 3 - Humphreys, Gavin and Connolly. I don't think sf will enter as they can't win and will not want to be seen as coming 3rd.

Connolly will be doing exceptionally well if she gets 10%. I suspect she'll be circa 5%. SD have gone very quiet and probably wish they hadn't backed her at this point.

Effectively a 2 horse race between HH & Gavin. if Gavin performs well in interviews, he'll win.

Loafing Oaf · 01-09-2025 09:34AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123774568#Comment_123774568

Effectively a 2 horse race between HH & Gavin.

If this becomes apparent from opinion polls I wonder will they start directly attacking each other? Can't see either having much enthusiasm for that…

Presidential Election.

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