Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting

Blut2 · 27-08-2025 11:18AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123757398#Comment_123757398

It slowed down from 2011-2016 because housing was actually cheap here during the recovery, but from 2016-2022 it dropped by 2.5% in 6 years, and by all accounts has been dropping even faster since the housing crisis got even worse post-covid.

The household size is dropping each year, and is also much smaller for immigrants (they've got a much higher percentage of single adults without children than the general population). So our 78k population growth would essentially eat every single house built in those 12 months. Its completely unsustainable for housing alone, nevermind other infrastructure or integration issues.

As far as housing goes thats also nevermind the 10k-15k homes needed yearly for obsolesence. And nevermind the 200k odd deficit of homes we need to make some sort of reduction in to remedy the housing crisis.

We need to be building in excess of 60k housing units a year (according to estimates from the CIF, Housing Commission and others) to account for all of this. Instead we're struggling to hit 30k a year, and will be for the forseeable future.

Thats why the housing crisis is only getting worse, and why home ownership rates will continue, and accelerate, their fall. The data is very clear that we're building tens of thousands too few homes a year.

DataDude · 27-08-2025 11:39AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123758615#Comment_123758615

There has been lots of cases in this thread of people just unable to accept data that contradicts their view of the world. But this is getting to egregious levels.

It is blatantly clear that owner occupier rates fell off a cliff when prices were dropping faster than almost any country in history. The fall slowed dramatically as soon as prices started rising. The ‘thesis’ behind this is obvious. We stopped building homes when prices were falling because there was no confidence in what they’d be worth when built. FTB numbers plummeted because banks wouldn’t lend on rapidly depreciating assets.

Since the recovery in prices, FTBer numbers have exploded. From less than 10,000 in 2011 when prices were on the floor, to 32,000 over the last 12 months. Growing every year. Despite higher and higher prices.

If you want to go with mass census fraud instead because the above conflicts with your world view, cool.

Rocket_GD · 27-08-2025 11:47AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123758689#Comment_123758689

Ignore statistics and figures, they don't matter, as some posters "know and see things" that don't align with the evidence so they cannot be true.

BlueSkyDreams · 27-08-2025 01:52PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123756040#Comment_123756040

The majority of new homes are to rent, rather than to buy. This must skew the home ownership stats.

There must be a lot of renters happy and capable of buying, but there is literally nothing available for them to buy.

Forced renters.

hometruths · 27-08-2025 03:26PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123758621#Comment_123758621

The household size is dropping each year, and is also much smaller for immigrants (they've got a much higher percentage of single adults without children than the general population).

Where are you getting this from? Sounds a bit counterintuitive.

Edit to add:

Just googled it, and ESRI research suggests you're taking total nonsense.

Over half (56 per cent) of all migrants were living in private rented housing in 2016, compared to 13 per cent of Irish-born. 75 per cent of Polish migrants - one of the largest migrant groups in Ireland - lived in private rented accommodation.
8 per cent of Irish-born individuals lived in overcrowded accommodation in 2016, a relatively low proportion when compared internationally. In contrast, almost 20 per cent of migrants in Ireland lived in overcrowded accommodation. Overcrowding rates were particularly high among some non-EEA migrants, including migrants from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) (37 per cent), Sub-Saharan and Other Africa (39 per cent), South Asia (41 per cent) and East Asia (37 per cent).

Overcrowded accommodation doesn't scream smaller household size. These are 2016 figures and stands to reason that it hasn't got any better since, particularly when you consider the current higher proportion of immigration from the regions with particularly high overcrowding.

https://www.esri.ie/news/migrants-face-greater-challenges-in-the-irish-housing-market-than-irish-born

Ray Palmer · 27-08-2025 04:21PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123758703#Comment_123758703

High and mighty on personal insults here but they ignore yours to me that are still going on. Living rent free in your head it seems

Rocket_GD · 27-08-2025 04:31PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123759500#Comment_123759500

Never once personally insulted you, please point out where I did?

My point was backing up DataDudes post that "There has been lots of cases in this thread of people just unable to accept data that contradicts their view of the world."

Multiple posters ignore the data, not just yourself.

Blut2 · 27-08-2025 06:57PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123759325#Comment_123759325

"In September, arrivals included 621 single men, 169 single females, 66 couples and 375 families. In October, arrivals included 690 single men, 231 single females, 76 couples and 385 families. In November, arrivals included 593 single men, 192 single females, 120 couples and 472 families."

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/ireland-and-immigration-the-facts-how-many-men-women-and-children-where-are-they-coming-from-and-which-counties-are-housing-them/a1317067915.html

Those are a few select months, but the figures are fairly consistent over the years.

Single people, or non-child having couples, vastly outweigh family units arriving in the country. Both of those categories bring down the average household size from 2.74 once they have their own accomodation.

And for non-EU student visas its not possible to bring a family with you - you're a single person, on a single visa - "non-EEA students coming to Ireland have no right to bring their family with them. Spouses, partners and children of non-EEA nationals can apply to enter and live in Ireland in their own right, but they cannot apply on the basis of their relationship to a non-EEA student. "

https://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/moving-country/moving-to-ireland/studying-in-ireland/immigration-nonEEA-students/

Your figures on overcrowding do nothing to suggest immigrants to Ireland live in larger household sizes, particularly given your own figures state 80% of them do not live in overcrowded housing.

In general, the vast majority of people who live in above average (2.74+) household sizes in Ireland long term are family units with children.

hometruths · 27-08-2025 10:08PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123759950#Comment_123759950

Interesting take. Mine would be slightly different.

I would have thought it is highly unlikely that 621 single men coming here for whether it's claiming asylum or for economic reasons are suddenly renting one bed apartments living on their own.

I'd also be a bit skeptical that students of any ilk, not just the non-EU, are driving down the household size by living alone.

I would have thought both of the above demographics are exactly the most likely types of people to be found 2 or 3 to a bedroom in a four bed house.

And whilst no doubt there is currently very high immigration, but even if every single non family immigrant did end up living alone, the volume is nothing near the sheer weight of numbers required to meaningfully drive down the average household size in a country with about 5.4m people and 2.2m houses.

In general, the vast majority of people who live in above average (2.74+) household sizes in Ireland long term are family units with children.

Totally agree with this. It's the main reason that we're not inevitably headed for avg household size of 2.0 anytime soon, despite what the Housing Commission tell you.

BlueSkyDreams · 28-08-2025 01:21PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123756048#Comment_123756048

I raised the same question recently, Of our 30k new homes annually, how many are being purchased or rented by the govt?

The Podcast suggests the vast majority of them, although there will be forward funded schemes with private investment funds also, but I agree that the state is likely the largest purchaser of private homes, which is unreal and is inflating prices further, as it is gobbles up the supply before it ever reaches the market.

The state needs to mobilise its own house building programme and should be barred from purchasing on the open/private market.

Villa05 · 28-08-2025 02:18PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123758689#Comment_123758689

OK I concede that the census is gospel and should not be questioned.

Let try some other facts

The census for 2011 was carried out in April at which point renting was considerably cheaper than buying. The supply was greater than demand, with the state warehousing land and property. Mortgage arrears were rocketing while it was not yet apparent that repayment was voluntary

We were a year out from the rollout of the property price register which would give buyers much more informed buying decisions

We were 4 months into an IMF bailout

Renting was the safe prudent option at that point so not really a shocker that the numbers choosing to rent over buying at that point and in the 3 years running up to that point had increased, thus reducing homeowner rates.

I'd be careful about using terms like explosion when describing first time buyer numbers

Scratching the surface would suggest continued dysfunction, while the numbers have risen. How many are for self builds, used properties etc. New marginal supply is priced well beyond the majority of prospective first time buyers

This is from a 2024 analysis on 2023 numbers

It all conveys the impression of a market that is operating at full tilt, but in fact, mortgage lending activity remains at levels seen four decades ago, despite massive growth in the population and in earnings in the meantime

https://share.google/VaOsnko8go49kaKub

Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting