Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

The overall home ownership rate drop is both shocking but also pretty interesting for what it will do to our politics as a country. As things stand rising house prices still benefit the majority (even if its quite theoretical for most owner occupiers, they seem to like the idea of it), which is why our government is so deliberately ineffective at preventing them.

But once we reach a stage where home owners are the minority policy will change quite radically. A country that's majority renters will introduce some pretty punitive taxes on home ownership.

The retirement situation is also going to get rather interesting (problematic) as a result. If large %s of people at retirement don't own their own property the financials of that just aren't going to work out, its not possible to pay rent on most pensions. The state will probably be forced to build public retirement communities.

Home ownership in Ireland is still high and above the EU average.

The pension timebomb for renters is a very real problem and it has been pointed out for years, but there seems to be no effort made to prepare for it by govt.

I can only assume that private renters will seek social housing when they retire.

Reports today that there is an increase in wealthy irish living in Spain and Portugal that are buying summer homes in ireland as its too hot where they live during the summer.

The only contradiction in this is recent history would suggest falling prices = falling home ownership rates

2006 (peak boom/peak prices) - 75%

2011 (market bottom) - 69%

2022 - 66%

In 5 years of rapidly decreasing prices the homeownership rate dropped 6ppt. In the subsequent 11 years it has only fallen 3ppt. Homeownership fell 4.4 times faster in the most affordable time imaginable than in the recent ‘boom’

So for someone who truly cares about the homeownership rate, rooting for a housing crash would appear counterproductive.

"High" is subjective (the figure used to be 80% very recently..), and the EU average is irrelevant, when it comes to government policy formation in the future.

All that matters will be when renters outnumber homeowners as voters, which is something thats coming closer every year. When that happens housing policy will go from changing slowly to all at once.

I completely expect extremely punitive taxes on my home as a homeowner to come in once this happens, in 15-20 years. Its just democracy. They'll likely be justified to pay for things like the public retirement communities discussed above.

2006 is a statistical anomaly. Loosest lending the history of the world. Those that did not partake in the madness had to pay the highest price and continue to do so, hence the continued decline in home ownership rate

77% in 2002 to 66% in 2022, and the fall only accelerating in recent years, would suggest 50 years is an extremely optimistic assessment to hit 49%.

Especially when you consider the current state of the housing market, the projections of completions for the next 5 years, and our continuing out of control population growth (CSO figures released today showed in the 12 months to April 2025 we had another 125,300 immigrants arrive. 'It was the fourth successive 12-month period where more than 100,000 people immigrated to the State.').

The youth home employment rate is the canary in the coal mine here -
"The home ownership rate among those aged 25-39, once considered a prime homeowning age, has dwindled to just 7 per cent [in 2025]. This is less than a third of the rate recorded in 2011 (22 per cent)."

Thats going to bleed upwards as older homeowners die off.

Is this an observation or a thesis?

As you are well aware the property market has been dysfunctional for well over 3 decades.

The damage from 07 to 11 was a direct result of inflationary housing policies during the previous 12 years that eventually bankrupted the country

We have a government that claimed to be the parties of homeownership

These figures not only prove they are not but also continously pursue policies that reduce home ownership and lead to large crashes that accelerate reductions in homeownership rates

With regard to the data, do you know where the data is pulled from.

The 2011 figure would coincide with peak negative equity. If the data is from the census do you declare your a homeowner if your underwater by upto 50%

There has been lots of cases in this thread of people just unable to accept data that contradicts their view of the world. But this is getting to egregious levels.

It is blatantly clear that owner occupier rates fell off a cliff when prices were dropping faster than almost any country in history. The fall slowed dramatically as soon as prices started rising. The ‘thesis’ behind this is obvious. We stopped building homes when prices were falling because there was no confidence in what they’d be worth when built. FTB numbers plummeted because banks wouldn’t lend on rapidly depreciating assets.

Since the recovery in prices, FTBer numbers have exploded. From less than 10,000 in 2011 when prices were on the floor, to 32,000 over the last 12 months. Growing every year. Despite higher and higher prices.

If you want to go with mass census fraud instead because the above conflicts with your world view, cool.

The majority of new homes are to rent, rather than to buy. This must skew the home ownership stats.

There must be a lot of renters happy and capable of buying, but there is literally nothing available for them to buy.

Forced renters.

High and mighty on personal insults here but they ignore yours to me that are still going on. Living rent free in your head it seems

"In September, arrivals included 621 ­single men, 169 single females, 66 couples and 375 families. In October, arrivals included 690 single men, 231 single females, 76 couples and 385 families. In November, arrivals included 593 single men, 192 single females, 120 couples and 472 families."

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/ireland-and-immigration-the-facts-how-many-men-women-and-children-where-are-they-coming-from-and-which-counties-are-housing-them/a1317067915.html

Those are a few select months, but the figures are fairly consistent over the years.

Single people, or non-child having couples, vastly outweigh family units arriving in the country. Both of those categories bring down the average household size from 2.74 once they have their own accomodation.

And for non-EU student visas its not possible to bring a family with you - you're a single person, on a single visa - "non-EEA students coming to Ireland have no right to bring their family with them. Spouses, partners and children of non-EEA nationals can apply to enter and live in Ireland in their own right, but they cannot apply on the basis of their relationship to a non-EEA student. "

https://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/moving-country/moving-to-ireland/studying-in-ireland/immigration-nonEEA-students/

Your figures on overcrowding do nothing to suggest immigrants to Ireland live in larger household sizes, particularly given your own figures state 80% of them do not live in overcrowded housing.

In general, the vast majority of people who live in above average (2.74+) household sizes in Ireland long term are family units with children.